Philadelphia Phillies: 1st starting rotation clues for 2018

2 of 3

With two solid spring outings, Lively is in position so far for the fifth slot in the rotation. Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. /

Even though the Phillies are at the beginning of the Grapefruit League schedule, their pitching assignments reveal management’s offseason view concerning the four open slots on the starting staff.

Initial considerations:

Regarding the difference between the fans and general manager Matt Klentak, the Philadelphia Phillies are planning for multiple campaigns, not just 2018’s Wild Card Game. But if an acquisition is workable within the GM’s framework, he won’t hesitate to make a trade or sign a free agent: now or in July.

IN OTHER WORDS: “Good fortune is what happens when opportunity meets with planning.” – Thomas A. Edison

According to agent Scott Boras, teams would come to their senses and ink his stars: Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, and Alex Cobb. But a month later, they haven’t done so.

While the Phils need a dependable starter, they have specific requirements dollarwise and lengthwise. But an outright bargain isn’t the only possibility.

Concerning the roster, as is, Klentak’s plan was a beefed-up offense and a strengthened bullpen to compensate for the anticipated bottleneck of free-agent starters. And when you consider 2017’s finish of 37-36 combined with the GM’s winter pick-ups, an 82-80 mark will be a solid record for the back end of rebuilding. So, relax!

Advice from the Internet had a local flavor. For instance, the Phillies should get a real pitcher, not an old one. And the same poster seemed in favor of Arrieta but, unfortunately, wasn’t clear about Arrieta’s age. Best guess?

On the other hand, another fan decided that Lynn is a long-term solution, while Cobb is only a one-summer inking to flip in July. And a third poster made trading for a proven starter an easy accomplishment by giving his unwanted players for a desirable moundsman. But what does the other club want?

Barring any last-minute additions, Jerad Eickhoff and Vince Velasquez will slot behind Aaron Nola because they’ve previously succeeded at the major league level. They earned the opportunity to bounce back to 2016’s potential, and the alternatives in camp aren’t encouraging either. Yes, the odds are against four spring standouts.

In Clearwater, the competition for two openings on the five-man staff is between fireballers and finesse hurlers. And because a batter must swing earlier at electric stuff, he could miss it even if it’s right down the middle. On the other hand, a 91-mph fastball is hittable, and MLB pitchers are inaccurate 30 percent of the time.

If Eflin doesn’t overdue it, he’ll stay healthy and be a solid piece in the rotation. Photo by H. Martin/Getty Images. /

Elimination process:

Based on their heaters, the first two starting assignments went to Nick Pivetta and Zach Eflin, and behind them were Nola, Ben Lively, Eickhoff, and Velasquez. Revealing thusly, Pivetta, Eflin and Lively are at the front of the pitching coach’s line.

Jake Thompson, Mark Leiter, right-hander Drew Hutchison (non-roster invitee) and righty Tom Eshelman worked the third and fourth innings. But while their coach Rick Kranitz passed over Thompson and Leiter, Hutchison hurled another two middle frames. On the other hand, Eshelman will probably be in the rotation of the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs.

The second turn through the spring rotation was every fifth day. And that schedule was Pivetta/Eflin on day one, Nola, and Lively/Eshelman on March 3. Lastly, the fourth and fifth spots were Eickhoff and Velasquez.

In the televised game last Saturday, Kranitz scheduled Eshelman because he wanted to familiarize himself with the control-valued right-hander. The coach had seen Lively previous year and had him start the split-squad contest instead. On the other hand, Leiter’s and Thompson’s absence is casting doubt on their chances.

WORDS OF EXPERIENCE: “No-one gets an iron-clad guarantee of success. Certainly, factors like opportunity, luck and timing are important. But the backbone of success is usually found in old-fashioned, basic concepts like hard work, determination, good planning and perseverance.” – Mia Hamm

To sum up, Pivetta and Eflin are the favorites for the four and five slots. And they will be on the red pinstripes if Pivetta can demonstrate common control (70 percent), and Eflin can stay healthy. But who pitched better on March 3? Lively!

Pivetta’s control is his biggest obstacle for a rotation slot. Photo by H. Martin/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Phillies starters:

Nola, 24.5: 27 Gms., 168 Inn., 12-11, a 3.54 ERA, a 3.27 FIP, a 3.38 xFIP, a 3.60 SIERA, a 4.3 fWAR and a 1.21 WHIP.
Eickhoff, 27.5: 24 Gms., 128 Inn., 4-8, a 4.71 ERA, a 4.30 FIP, a 4.86 xFIP, a 4.72 SIERA, a 1.9 fWAR and a 1.52 WHIP.
Velasquez, 25.5: 15 Gms., 72 Inn., 2-7, a 5.13 ERA, a 5.49 FIP, a 4.56 xFIP, a 4.70 SIERA, a 0.1 fWAR and a 1.50 WHIP.

Pivetta, 25:

Phillies: 26 Gms., 133 Inn., 8-10, a 6.02 ERA, a 4.87 FIP, a 4.26 xFIP, a 4.32 SIERA, a 1.1 fWAR and a 1.51 WHIP.
AAA: 5 Gms., 22 Inn., 5-0, a 1.41 ERA, a 1.71 FIP, a 2.85 xFIP and a 0.84 WHIP.

Phillies: 1st rotation clues

Even though the Phillies are at the beginning of the Grapefruit League schedule, their pitching assignments reveal management’s offseason view concerning the four open slots on the starting staff.

Initial considerations:

Elimination process:

The Numerical Bible:

More from Call to the Pen