Philadelphia Phillies: What should the lineup look like?

What should the 2018 Philadelphia Phillies lineup look for the 2018 season?

Believe me, Philadelphia Phillies fans get it. We have Gabe Kapler managing the team this season. He’s weird; his rules are different; he will change his lineup a lot. This doesn’t mean, aside from his nice salary, of course, that the Phillies are his team.

Phillies fans simply hope that Kapler isn’t Chip Kelly 2.0, and they have their notions about what the Phillies lineup should look like this season. And here we mean to largely leave out the any further mention of the wanting number nine position in that lineup, the starting pitcher.

Here’s what the Phillies order should look like, generally, in 2018:

1. Roman Quinn/Odubel Herrera, CF: Herrera is only here if Quinn doesn’t work out. Their credentials don’t line up, that’s clear, but Quinn is a switch hitter. He’s stronger than he looks, and until Herrera shows he can focus every day, he doesn’t get to play, and honestly, that’s sad because Herrera was an All-Star. He has to prove when he plays, he belongs. Quinn has only played in 15 MLB games (in 2016), but Herrera has a batting average and OPS in three seasons not wildly above Quinn’s in his cameo. Until Herrera can stop being put out at the wrong base while playing once every three games, Quinn should be the center fielder. Ideally, Quinn gets the opening day start, and Herrera is traded for a promising starter.
2. Carlos Santana, IB: OK, in addition to this guy’s strength, he has judgment, even off balance. On Mar. 5, for example, in an exhibition game against Minnesota, Santana opened his hips too early, swung at an outside pitch, and still slammed it over the center fielder’s head for a double. Some people – this writer – may be proven wrong about this guy’s contract being too pricey. He could be moved to number three or four in the order, depending on circumstances.

The Heart of the Phillies Lineup

1. Rhys Hoskins, LF: This extremely promising young player is, behind Santana, probably the best judge of which pitches to swing at on the team. This is a paramount modern notion. As a rookie, he smashed 18 home runs in his first 34 games, but then, probably tired at the end of a long season at two levels, didn’t hit another in his last 16 games. Is he Philly’s next Mike Schmidt? Many fingers are crossed.
2. Aaron Altherr/Nick Williams, RF: Since Santana has been added, and Hoskins has to play left field instead of first base, there is no avoiding a platoon of some sort in the outfield with these two exciting players who both probably play right field best. Both have also played the other outfield positions. Altherr has hit .243 over a bit more than a season’s worth of games scattered over four years. Injuries have slowed him, but he is beginning to show flashes of brilliance both in the field and at bat. Last Sept. 18 he pounded a grand slam off Clayton Kershaw into the second deck in left at Citizens Bank Park. It was the only grand slam Kershaw has ever given up. Altherr bats right, which highlights the platoon situation here since Williams bats left. Williams hit .288 in his first partial season in ’17. Thus, this is a perfect laboratory for Phillies analytics. Big data should show whether there are some left-handed pitchers Williams should hit, and some righties Altherr could handle. Both have the potential to drive in 100 runs. Even with platooning, because of late-game insertions in center field, both players should get 350 plate appearances.
3. Cesar Hernandez, 2B: Hernandez has been the team’s leading hitter the past two seasons, hitting .294 twice in a row. Batting first, however, he has not driven in many runs, and it’s time to turn this player’s .370-plus OBP for the past two seasons into some runs batted in, particularly since the team will likely be shopping this veteran after Scott Kingery is promoted to the team relatively early in the season.(Kingery has been one of the team’s top hitters in Florida, and there’s no apparent reason not to bat him fifth once he replaces Hernandez. Perhaps he could be flip-flopped with the following batter.)

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Those Who Should Move Up

1. Jorge Alfaro, C: One day it is entirely possible that Alfaro will hit either third or fourth in the Phillies lineup. In his very brief MLB hitting career, he has already been impressive, booking a .799 OPS figure in parts of two seasons and hitting .318 in his 29 game appearances last season. His defense needs work. Proper backup here: Andrew Knapp.
2. Maikel Franco, 3B: The somewhat disappointing arc of Franco’s career is well-known now. After hitting .280 in a half season in ’15, and following that with 25 home runs and 88 RBI in ’16, the infielder slid last year to one fewer home runs, eight fewer RBI, a dismal .230 batting average, and a woeful .281 OBP. Until he hits his way higher in the order, he’s a seven-hole hitter with tremendous raw talent, but a tendency to lose focus or let his emotions dictate what he swings at. It is clear Franco’s focus is one of Kapler’s first projects, one he has sought Santana’s help with. Franco is only 25, but the clock on his career in Philly is now ticking. He needs to smash that clock this season.
3. J.P. Crawford, SS: It is thought that Crawford will one day also move much higher in this lineup. He may hit first or second ultimately, but for now, it is probably best to leave him here. He hit .214 in a small part of last season, showing a little pop – five extra-base hits among the 15 in total he had.

Next: Phillies nearly contenders?

With this young, motivated lineup, you could probably put the names of the hitters listed second through sixth above into a hat, pull them out blindfolded, bat them in the order pulled, and really not hurt the Phillies that day. The unknown is whether such a young lineup could produce another backslider or two in the Franco mode. It will also be interesting to see whether or not Kapler’s promised mix-and-match approach will dovetail with the raw offensive talent he has at his disposal.