Comparing the MLB top prospects lists

MIAMI, FL - JULY 09: The U.S. Team stands for the National Anthem prior to the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game against the World Team at Marlins Park on July 9, 2017 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FL - JULY 09: The U.S. Team stands for the National Anthem prior to the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game against the World Team at Marlins Park on July 9, 2017 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
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New York Yankees
New York Yankees

Correlation, Correlation, Correlation

 

It probably isn’t surprising to see many of the same names on these prospect lists. Some players are easy-to-identify as top-100 talents. Everyone loves Ronald Acuna, the Braves very talented young outfielder who would be the consensus top prospect in the game if not for Shohei Ohtani. The rest of the top 10 has familiar names like Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Victor Robles and Eloy Jimenez. One consensus top 10 player, Nick Senzel, was ranked #7 on four of the six lists.

The rankings start to separate the further down you go. Outfielder Austin Hays is well liked by Baseball America (#21) and MLB.com (#23), but Fangraphs (#90) and Keith Law (#79) are not as high on him. Yankees third baseman Miguel Andujar is ranked as high as #14 by Fangraphs, but did not make the top-100 of Baseball Prospectus. Overall, 164 players made at least one of these six lists.

When it comes to correlation between lists, Baseball America is king. In particular, the Baseball America and MLB.com list had a correlation of 0.90, which is the highest between any pair. In basic terms, this means the Baseball America and MLB.com lists were the most similar.

Comparing all lists to each other, the Baseball America list had the highest average correlation to the other five, with MLB.com finishing a close second, followed by BP, Fangraphs, Keith Law, and Call to the Pen, which had the lowest average correlation to the others. The two lists that were least correlated were Call to the Pen and Fangraphs, at 0.60.