Comparing the MLB top prospects lists
With multiple MLB top prospects lists out there, what are some similarities and differences among them?
There was a time when most baseball fans didn’t know much about the minor league players in their favorite team’s farm system. The MLB draft was not well publicized and very little information was available on the players who were drafted. This has changed with the information age we now live in. The amateur draft is more publicized than in the past and more fans are tracking players as they rise up through the minor leagues. In the spring, there are numerous publications and websites who put out their top prospects lists.
Historically, the biggest name when it comes to baseball prospects is Baseball America, which has prospect lists going back to 1990. That was back when the top-10 included Steve Avery at #1, John Olerud at #3 and Juan Gonzalez at #4. Down at #29 was Hall of Famer Frank Thomas. Two-sport star Deion Sanders made their list at #53 and someone named Reid Cornelius clocked in at #100.
Baseball America is no longer the only one putting out a top prospect lists. MLB.com has their MLB Pipeline top-100 and ESPN Insiders get Keith Law’s top-100. Two analytical sites, Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus, have top prospect lists. And here at Call to the Pen, Benjamin Chase released his list of the top 150 prospects in baseball. He followed that up with a question-and-answer session about those prospects.
With all of these lists at my disposal, I decided to compare them. For this comparison, only the top 100 players on each list are considered. For example, Baseball Prospectus has a top-101 and Call to the Pen has a top-150, but only the first 100 players on each of these lists will be part of this comparison.
It should be noted that Shohei Ohtani, the two-way player from Japan who would likely be #1 or #2 on every list, was not included on the Baseball Prospectus or Keith Law lists. BP’s Craig Goldstein said of excluding Ohtani, “The league he’s been in for multiple season’s main purpose is not development, and he’s not going to spend time in the minors unless he’s rehabbing an injury.” Similarly, Keith Law does not include foreign major leaguers from Japan’s NPB or Korea’s KBO. With that acknowledged, let’s compare the top-100 prospects lists.
Correlation, Correlation, Correlation
It probably isn’t surprising to see many of the same names on these prospect lists. Some players are easy-to-identify as top-100 talents. Everyone loves Ronald Acuna, the Braves very talented young outfielder who would be the consensus top prospect in the game if not for Shohei Ohtani. The rest of the top 10 has familiar names like Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Victor Robles and Eloy Jimenez. One consensus top 10 player, Nick Senzel, was ranked #7 on four of the six lists.
The rankings start to separate the further down you go. Outfielder Austin Hays is well liked by Baseball America (#21) and MLB.com (#23), but Fangraphs (#90) and Keith Law (#79) are not as high on him. Yankees third baseman Miguel Andujar is ranked as high as #14 by Fangraphs, but did not make the top-100 of Baseball Prospectus. Overall, 164 players made at least one of these six lists.
When it comes to correlation between lists, Baseball America is king. In particular, the Baseball America and MLB.com list had a correlation of 0.90, which is the highest between any pair. In basic terms, this means the Baseball America and MLB.com lists were the most similar.
Comparing all lists to each other, the Baseball America list had the highest average correlation to the other five, with MLB.com finishing a close second, followed by BP, Fangraphs, Keith Law, and Call to the Pen, which had the lowest average correlation to the others. The two lists that were least correlated were Call to the Pen and Fangraphs, at 0.60.
Unique Players
There were 44 players who only appeared on one list. Fangraphs led the way with 13 such players, including Colin Moran, who was #53 on their list but didn’t make the top-100 on any other. Moran was a well-regarded prospect prior to the 2014 season but has fallen off the other lists. He hasn’t shown much power overall in his five minor league seasons, but is coming off a .308/.373/.543 showing in 79 games in Triple-A. His scouting summary at Fangraphs mentioned “substantive changes to his swing in 2017, which unlocked dormant raw power without compromising his natural feel to hit.”
Keith Law had 12 players who didn’t appear on any other list. James Kaprielian (#56) was their highest ranked player among this group of 12. He was a top-100 guy on multiple lists prior to last season but didn’t pitch at all in 2017 because of an elbow injury that led to Tommy John surgery. Law believes he still has number one starter potential.
Baseball Prospectus has 10 unique names on their list. Outfielder Magneuris Sierra (#56) is their top-ranked unique name. He was signed by the Cardinals out of the Dominican Republic in 2012. In 442 minor league games, he’s hit .292/.339/.378. He also got into 22 games with the Cardinals last year and got on base well enough, but showed very little power (.317/.359/.317). He was part of the Marcell Ozuna trade in December, so he’s now with the Miami Marlins organization.
Call to the Pen had just four unique players. Tanner Scott (#91), Brusdar Graterol (#92), Austin Beck (#93), and Luis Ortiz (#95) were the four guys in the Call to the Pen top-100 who didn’t appear on any other list. Scott is a left-handed pitcher on the Orioles who has struck out an impressive 251 batters in 198.7 minor league innings. Unfortunately, he’s also walked 145. He pitched 1.7 major league innings last year and continued this pattern, walking two and striking out two.
The vast majority of the MLB.com list had players who appeared on at least one other list, but there were still three who did not. Those three were Christian Arroyo, Kevin Maitan, and Mickey Moniak. Arroyo has been on the MLB.com top-100 in each of the last three years. He was also on the Baseball America list prior to the 2016 season. He’s been a good gap-to-gap hitter in the minor leagues, but has yet to tap into much power. The Giants traded him to the Rays in the offseason as part of the Evan Longoria deal.
The list with the fewest unique players is Baseball America, which was also the list with the highest average correlation to the other lists. Only two of their top 100 did not appear on any other list—Brent Rooker (#92) and Wander S. Franco (#96). Rooker is an outfielder in the Twins organization who was drafted in the first round last June (35th pick overall). He hit .281/.364/.566 in 62 games in his first professional season.
Franco was signed by the Rays out of the Dominican Republic last June. At the time, he was considered the top international prospect. He just turned 17 on March 1 and has yet to play in the states. He’s the nephew of Erick Aybar and has two brothers in the minor leagues. This ranking is based predominantly on projecting his raw talent.
Let’s Agree to Disagree
There were 58 players who appeared on all six lists, ranging from Ronald Acuna, with an average ranking of 1.3, to Albert Abreu, with an average ranking of 79.7. There was general agreement near the top of the list, particularly in the top 10. One top guy with a small amount of disagreement was Yankees prospect Gleyber Torres, who was ranked as high as #3 (Baseball Prospectus) to as low as #12 (Fangraphs).
Cleveland catching prospect Francisco Mejia was quite high on the lists of Baseball Prospectus (#5) and Keith Law (#7), but down at #20 on the Baseball America list. He made headlines in 2016 when he put together a 50-game hitting streak, which was the longest in the minor leagues since 1954. He hit .297/.346/.490 as a 21-year-old in Double-A last year and even got into a handful of games in the major leagues last September. His bat is ahead of his glove right now, but if he can stick at catcher he has all-star potential.
Baltimore outfield prospect Austin Hays was mentioned earlier. Of all the players who appeared on all six lists, Hays had the biggest disagreement in the rankings. Baseball America (#21) and MLB.com (#23) really liked him and Call to the Pen (#39) had him in the top half of their top-100. The other three sources weren’t as high on Hays. Baseball Prospectus had him ranked #72. Keith Law had him at #79. And Fangraphs had him down at #90.
Other players with considerable disagreement included shortstop Nick Gordon (high ranking of #35, low ranking of #93), infielder Luis Urias (high of #28, low of #89), shortstop Franklin Barreto (high of #24, low of #94), and first baseman Ryan McMahon (high of #31, low of #99).
Baseball America
High on:
- OF Austin Hays, Orioles–#21, avg. ranking of 54.0
- RHP Franklin Perez, Tigers–#35, avg. ranking of 58.7
- LHP Luis Gohara, Braves–#23, avg. ranking of 40.7
- INF Luis Urias, Padres–#32, avg. ranking of 49.5
- RHP Michel Baez, Padres–#28, avg. ranking of 42.0
Low on:
- SS Nick Gordon, Twins–#93, avg. ranking of 60.8
- RHP Corbin Burnes, Brewers–#74, avg. ranking of 55.0
- OF Juan Soto, Nationals–#56, avg. ranking of 38.7
- OF Luis Robert, White Sox–#58, avg. ranking of 42.0
- OF Jahmai Jones, Angels–#89, avg. ranking of 74.8
Baseball America has Michel Baez ranked #28, which puts him 10 spots higher than he ranks on any other list. The Cuban import made a big jump after his first year in pro ball. Baez is a big drink of water at six-foot-eight. He dominated A ball last year with 82 strikeouts and just eight walks in 58.7 innings. Baseball America has his ceiling as a “front-of-the-rotation starter.”
On the flip side, Baseball America is low on Nick Gordon, ranking him #93. Gordon’s next-lowest ranking is #80, by MLB.com. Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law have him in their top 40. Gordon’s stock has dropped on the BA list. In the previous three years, he ranked #61, #53, and #60. He came into last season as the Twins top prospect but has dropped all the way down to eighth. This is in part due to Gordon and in part due to an influx of young talent into the Twins system, including the number one overall pick last June, shortstop Royce Lewis. With Lewis coming up behind him, Gordon could end up moving over to second base.
Love Me, Hate Me—MLB.com
High on:
- OF Austin Hays, Orioles–#23, avg. ranking of 54.0
- C Carson Kelly, Cardinals–#46, avg. ranking of 66.7
- 1B Ryan McMahon, Rockies–#41, avg. ranking of 61.2
- RHP Franklin Perez, Tigers–#39, avg. ranking of 58.7
- OF Leodys Taveras, Rangers–#34, avg. ranking of 52.0
Low on:
- SS Nick Gordon, Twins–#80, avg. ranking of 60.8
- OF Jahmai Jones, Angels–#93, avg. ranking of 74.8
- SS J.P. Crawford, Phillies–#37, avg. ranking of 21.3
- RHP Corbin Burnes, Brewers–#69, avg. ranking of 55.0
- INF Jorge Mateo, Athletics–#72, avg. ranking of 59.7
The Baseball America and MLB.com lists were the most closely correlated and this can be seen with the guys they are both high and low on. MLB.com has Austin Hays ranked #23, which is very close to Baseball America’s #21 ranking for Hays. Three other sources have Hays ranked #72 or worse. They are also both down on Nick Gordon, more so than the other sources.
Hays split time last season in High-A and Double-A before getting into 20 games for the Orioles as a September call-up. He didn’t hit much with the O’s but the depth chart projections at Fangraphs see him being a league average hitter in the big leagues this year, should the Orioles keep him on their MLB roster. He’s projected to hit .277/.310/.460 in 161 plate appearances. MLB.com believes “Hays is on the fast track to becoming an impact, everyday player at the highest level.”
Gordon was ranked #30 on the MLB.com list in 2017 but is now ranked #80. He spent all of last season at the Double-A level and showed more power than he had in the past, but also struck out more often (23.2 percent strikeout rate). He’s the brother of speedy Dee Gordon but not nearly as accomplished a base stealer. In four minor league seasons, he’s stolen 68 bases but has been caught 35 times. With a good year in Triple-A, Gordon will be ready to take over second base in Minnesota when Brian Dozier leaves as a free agent after this season.
Love Me, Hate Me—Fangraphs
High on:
- 2B Keston Hiura, Brewers–#24, avg. ranking of 46.0
- SS Franklin Barreto, Athletics–#32, avg. ranking of 53.7
- INF Luis Urias, Padres–#28, avg. ranking of 49.5
- OF Luis Robert, White Sox–#21, avg. ranking of 42.0
- RHP Albert Abreu, Yankees–#59, avg. ranking of 79.7
Low on:
- RHP Franklin Perez, Tigers–#100, avg. ranking of 58.7
- OF Austin Hays, Orioles–#90, avg. ranking of 54.0
- OF Leodys Taveras, Rangers–#86, avg. ranking of 52.0
- 1B Ryan McMahon, Rockies–#83, avg. ranking of 61.2
- LHP Jay Groome, Red Sox–#98, avg. ranking of 77.0
This is what prospect lists are all about. If you have faith in MLB.com, you might really like Ryan McMahon (#41) and Austin Hays (#23). If you’re more confident in the Fangraphs rankings, McMahon (#83) and Hays (#90) are not as high on your radar. Fangraphs has Yankees pitcher Albert Abreu (#59) a full 10 spots better than any other source. They must like the cut of his jib.
One of the players Fangraphs is quite high on is Luis Robert, who was signed by the White Sox out of Cuba shortly before the new CBA limited how much teams could spend on international free agents. Fangraphs has Robert ranked #21. Most of the other sources have him in the mid-40s to mid-50s range. Robert was very impressive in 28 games in rookie ball last year, hitting .310/.491/.536.
On the other hand, they are not as impressed with Franklin Perez as the other prospect watchers, ranking him 33 spots below the next-closest source. Perez is ranked between #35 and #67 by every other source, but Fangraphs slipped him into the #100 spot on their list. In his three years in the minor leagues, Perez has seen his strikeout rate go down and his walk rate go up as he’s advanced from one level to the next. This isn’t uncommon, of course, but an 18.3 percent strikeout rate at Double-A is not elite. Fangraphs still sees Perez as an “above-average big league starter.”
Love Me, Hate Me—Baseball Prospectus
High on:
- SS Nick Gordon, Twins–#35, avg. ranking of 60.8
- OF Leodys Taveras, Rangers–#28, avg. ranking of 52.0
- C Carson Kelly, Cardinals–#44, avg. ranking of 66.7
- OF Juan Soto, Nationals–#22, avg. ranking of 38.7
- OF Monte Harrison, Brewers–#49, avg. ranking of 64.3
Low on:
- 1B Ryan McMahon, Rockies–#99, avg. ranking of 61.2
- RHP Corbin Burnes, Brewers–#80, avg. ranking of 55.0
- INF Luis Urias, Padres–#74, avg. ranking of 49.5
- LHP Luis Gohara, Braves–#62, avg. ranking of 40.7
- RHP Albert Abreu, Yankees–#100, avg. ranking of 79.7
The Gordon family will be much happier about Nick’s placement on the BP top-100, where he gets his best ranking. BP also likes Taveras, Kelly, Soto, and Harrison more than any other source. You can add Angels outfielder Jo Adell to this list. He is ranked #38 by BP, but #46 or higher by everyone else. Adell doesn’t have much of a professional track record yet. He was the number ten overall pick last June and has just 49 games under his belt. He’s hit well, though, with a .325/.376/.532 batting line.
Rockies first base prospect Ryan McMahon doesn’t get much love from BP, where he’s ranked #99. Three of the six sources have McMahon in their top 50. He’s hit well in five minor league seasons (.298/.368/.510), but some of the Rockies’ minor league ballparks are quite hitter friendly. He played both Double-A and Triple-A last year and showed big home/road splits and platoon splits. He crushed right-handed pitchers (.379/.428/.631), but struggled against lefties (.231/.297/.337).
Love Me, Hate Me—Keith Law
High on:
- LHP Jay Groome, Red Sox–#30, avg. ranking of 77.0
- RHP Corbin Burnes, Brewers–#24, avg. ranking of 55.0
- 1B Ryan McMahon, Rockies–#31, avg. ranking of 61.2
- LHP Justus Sheffield, Yankees–#16, avg. ranking of 44.7
- SS Nick Gordon, Twins–#37, avg. ranking of 60.8
Low on:
- SS Franklin Barreto, Athletics–#94, avg. ranking of 53.7
- OF Austin Hays, Orioles–#79, avg. ranking of 54.0
- OF Austin Meadows, Pirates–#70, avg. ranking of 45.0
- RHP Mike Soroka, Braves–#60, avg. ranking of 35.5
- OF Monte Harrison, Brewers–#85, avg. ranking of 64.3
Jay Groome’s mom probably wouldn’t have Jay Groome as high as Keith Law has him. Law’s #30 ranking for Groome is 48 spots higher than the next-closest source (BP has him at #78). The big left-handed pitcher was the 12th overall pick in the 2016 draft. He only pitched 6.7 innings that summer and was at or near the top-40 on the Baseball America, BP, and MLB.com lists prior to the 2017 season. Law had him at #20 before last season.
In 2017, Groome tried to pitch through an injury early in the year and finished with a 5.69 ERA in 55.3 minor league innings. He struck out an impressive 72 batters but also walked 30. This caused his stock to drop quite a bit on the prospect lists, except for Keith Law, who still has faith that Groome can be a number two starter.
Among the guys who are lower on the Keith Law list than any other is A’s shortstop Franklin Barreto. He dropped from #56 to #94 on Law’s list after his strikeout rate jumped to nearly 28 percent in 111 games at Triple-A. Barreto also got some major league playing time and struck out 43.4 percent of the time against big league pitching. While Law dropped him to #94 on his top 100, the other sources all had him #66 or higher, including a #24 ranking by Call to the Pen.
Love Me, Hate Me—Call to the Pen
High on:
- SS Franklin Barreto, Athletics–#24, avg. ranking of 53.7
- SS Nick Gordon, Twins–#43, avg. ranking of 60.8
- OF Jahmai Jones, Angels–#59, avg. ranking of 74.8
- OF Austin Meadows, Pirates–#30, avg. ranking of 45.0
- OF Austin Hays, Orioles–#39, avg. ranking of 54.0
House That Hank Built
Low on:
- 1B/LHP Brandon McKay, Rays–#90, avg. ranking of 37.8
- INF Luis Urias, Padres–#89, avg. ranking of 49.5
- 2B Keston Hiura, Brewers–#82, avg. ranking of 46.0
- C Carson Kelly, Cardinals–#99, avg. ranking of 66.7
- RHP Hunter Greene, Reds–#65, avg. ranking of 36.3
None of the six sources like Barreto more than Call to the Pen, where he’s ranked #24. The next-closest ranking is Fangraphs’ #32, but MLB.com, BP, and Keith Law all have him ranked #63 or higher. His write-up at Call to the Pen suggests he could make some noise in the big leagues as soon as this season, most likely at second base rather than shortstop because the A’s have Marcus Semien handling shortstop duties.
The general consensus on two-way player Brandon McKay is that he’s a top-40 prospect, but Call to the Pen disagrees, ranking him #90. That’s 51 spots worse than the next-closest ranking (#39 by Baseball America). Call to the Pen projects McKay to be either a number three or four starter or a first baseman with “solid average and OBP” who hits 20 or so home runs. Either of those outcomes is valuable, but perhaps not top-40 valuable.
Next: Comparing Acuna to Trout
So that’s the breakdown of a host of lists of top prospects. Which do you agree with most? Least? Comment below!