The rumor mill has been strong about the Minnesota Twins signing current players to long-term extensions. They could be wise to learn from other small market teams.
The Minnesota Twins are preparing for a big season in 2018, hoping to build on a late-season push that took them to a playoff experience in 2017 just one season after losing over 100 games in 2016.
Now that the team has seen success with a young core of players, there is pressure to ensure that core can be around for a long time. How can the Minnesota Twins take the lessons from other small market teams to help build a long-term winner in Target Field?
Contract questions
The Minnesota Twins are in an enviable financial position, without a single player under contractual obligation after the 2019 season. Some significant money comes off the books after 2018 as well, which puts the team in a spot where setting up long-term deals with some of their young players would be very smart.
However, the Minnesota Twins also need to be wary of some of the tough examples of players like Jose Tabata, Matt Moore, Allen Craig, and a number of others who have signed early extension deals and not produced throughout those deals, causing them to be players that were worthy of a trade or even a release.
Along those lines, one player the Minnesota Twins should NOT be making an extension offer to right now is Miguel Sano. Yes, he has tremendous power. However, in today’s game, power is not something that is all that expensive to find in the open market (as the Twins just found in Logan Morrison), and with the current issues that could lead to a Sano suspension to open the season and his struggles in keeping his weight in check, he would seem a poor choice to buy into long-term.
On the flip side are Jorge Polanco and Byron Buxton. On Polanco, the deal that Paul DeJong just signed with the Cardinals could serve as a financial guide, making a very low-cost investment for a player who won’t even be arbitration eligible until 2020.
Buxton is another beast altogether. There are absolutely still questions about his offense, but due to those questions, Buxton could likely be signed for less than a typical guy headed to arbitration for the first time next offseason.
The contract that I think the Minnesota Twins would be wise to follow would be the one the Pittsburgh Pirates signed with Andrew McCutchen in March of 2012. McCutchen did have one All-Star season under his belt in comparison, but taking price inflation and the “lesser” accomplishments of Buxton thus far, something along the lines of 6 years and $50-55 million would be quite advantageous for team and player and likely not hurt the Twins’ ability to compete.
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On the pitching side, I really think the Minnesota Twins should take a page from the Tampa Bay Rays book and look at the deal they made with Chris Archer after he had 29 games and 27 starts in the major leagues before the 2014 season when dealing with Jose Berrios.
Berrios, like Polanco, is not eligible for arbitration until after the 2019 season. He has 40 games and 39 starts in the major leagues, but it could be argued that his 2016 starts truly did not help his bargaining power.
At that time, Archer signed a deal for 6 years and $25.5 million guaranteed with 2 more option seasons that could bring the total value to $43.5 million over 8 years. The Minnesota Twins may have to be closer to $30 million for 6 years, but it would be well worth it to lock in Berrios.
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With players like Polanco, Buxton, and Berrios locked in at reasonable costs (~$100-110 million combined over the next 6 seasons, less money than Yu Darvish alone got paid), the Minnesota Twins could make financial plays like they did this offseason to complete their lineup this season and years to come as well.