MLB Free Agency: Agents, players misread the market

Several players expected to cash in during MLB free agency this year, earning contracts that would set their families up for generations. Instead, they are left accepting one year deals or remain unemployed.

As we headed into the offseason this year, it was not a surprise when none of the players tagged with the Qualifying Offer turned down that one year offer. Yes, the salary for that season may have been tempting, but riches awaited in MLB free agency. At least, that was the prevailing thought.

However, the offseason played out slowly. Perhaps due to the plethora of players available in trade, or the unprecedented number of teams looking to punt the coming year, either for a better draft pick or the coveted free agents of 2018-19, few teams made a splash. Those players that turned down the QO, or a contract earlier in the offseason, had to regret their decisions.

In the end, there have been several players who, either due to the advice of their agents or  their own expectations, have had to settle for less than anticipated. Mike Moustakas turned down the Royals QO, only to return to the team on a one year deal with a mutual option for 2019. His $6.5 million in guaranteed money, and potential $22 million overall, are a far cry from what had been expected. it is also a far cry from a three year, $45 million offer he reportedly received from the Angels earlier in the offseason.

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Then we come to Jonathan Lucroy, who signed a one year deal with the Oakland Athletics on Friday. While he was not offered the QO due to a mid season trade, he turned down a three yea, $21 million contract to remain with the Colorado Rockies back in November. Now, he is instead joining his fourth team in three years, going to Oakland on a one year deal.

At least Lucroy has found a job for the coming year. The same cannot be said for Alex Cobb, who not only turned down the Rays QO, but also rejected a three year deal worth $42 million from the Cubs. Since then, there has been plenty of speculation about where Cobb could end up, but nothing in the way of a contract offer. Cobb, along with Lance Lynn and Jake Arrieta, find themselves on the outside looking in as we are less then three weeks until Opening Day.

There were players that were not overly affected by the slow moving market. Yu Darvish and Eric Hosmer still got their paydays, even though they signed late in the offseason. Yet, those players in that second tier, like Moustakas and Cobb, completely misread the market. Part of the blame may lie on the players, but it certainly makes one wonder what advice they were receiving from their agents.

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MLB free agency was a disappointment, and possibly a wakeup call, for several players. They completely misread the market, overvaluing their services.