Atlanta Braves: Projecting the 2018 bullpen
We project the 2018 Atlanta Braves bullpen, after a disastrous 2017 effort.
The 2017 Atlanta Braves bullpen was a point of frustration among fans. With a young starting staff that struggled to pitch into the 7th inning, Braves manager Brian Snitker was forced to rely on a bullpen that suffered from a lack of consistency and defined roles. Jim Johnson, the closer, blew nine saves while posting a 5.56 ERA.
The only reliable options were Arodyz Vizcaino and lefty journeyman, Sam Freeman. However, Vizcaino for all his excellent work, allowed 8 of 12 inherited runners to score, while Freeman stranded a team-high 52.6%.
In short, the bullpen allowed just too many inherited runners to score and failed to provide shutdown innings consistently. Going into 2018, the Atlanta bullpen appears to be much improved, with the bulk of the late-inning work going to pitchers that can post higher K rates instead of relying on soft contact to escape jams.
Arodys Vizcaino enters the season as the team’s closer. The fireballer’s fastball averaged 98.2 mph while his change-up sat at 89.5 mph in 2017. He averaged 10.05 K/9 which was offset by a 3.3 BB/9. The struggle with his command, is a bit of concern as is his 4.21 xFIP, but as Vizcaino enters his prime years, he is a fabulous sleeper candidate and can rack up saves. Of course, the bullpen’s success rests on his shoulders.
Getting to Vizcaino should feature a much-improved cast as well. Jose Ramirez was forced into a critical role in 2017, pitching 62 innings with 27 holds. However, Ramirez allowed 12 of 16 inherited runners to score and posted a -0.4 WAR, 4.21 BB/9, and 5.00 xFIP. The aforementioned Sam Freeman was better, stranding 52.6% but also struggled with command issuing 4.05 BB/9.
He and Vizcaino led the pen with a 0.7 WAR. Daniel Winkler returned from two seasons of injuries to throw 14.1 impressive innings. Snitker used Winkler in late game situations, and he responded well striking out 11.3 per 9. Lefty veteran Rex Brothers struck out 12.55 hitters per 9 in limited action. Those four enter the season expected to carry the bulk of the late-inning work.
The Future Is NOW for the Atlanta Braves
Waiting in the wings are two dynamite fireballers. A.J. Minter, taken 75th overall in the 2015 draft, will be the X-factor. Climbing from A ball to the majors in 2017, Minter struggled with command throughout the minors. However, once he arrived in Atlanta, he was nothing short of lights out. The young lefty struck out 15.6 batters per 9 while only walking 1.2 per 9.
In 15 innings, Minter posted a 0.6 WAR and 1.63 xFIP. He has a fastball-slider combo that sits in the 96-90 range and dominated right-handed batters to the tune of 16 strikeouts of 38 hitters. He gives the Braves three viable lefties in the pen, allowing Freeman and Brothers to evolve into lefty specialists. Freeman walked 21 RHB in 33 IP while Brothers allowed a .848 OPS to RH.
Anyelo Gomez, taken in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft, pitched across four levels in 2017. He struck out 87 in 70.1 IP with only 21 free passes. More importantly, those 70.1 IP came in 38 appearances, giving the Braves a viable hard-throwing swingman option. The expectations are that Gomez will be placed in low leverage situations to start the season. 2080 Baseball has a good write-up on his repertoire, describing his fastball as “double plus.”
In With the New
The Atlanta Braves acquired Chase Whitley from the Tampa Bay Rays off of waivers. He may become organizational depth at AAA but also slots in nicely as a veteran utility man, in case some of the young starters struggle. Whitley’s 0.7 WAR out the Rays pen would have tied him for the Braves team lead.
Peter Moylan returns to Atlanta after two solid seasons in the Kansas City pen. The fan favorite posted a 61% ground ball rate in KC and would provide excellent veteran leadership.
Waiting in the Wings for the Atlanta Braves
Akeel Morris and Josh Graham have pitched well this spring and are expected to begin the season at AAA. Both should see time in Atlanta at some point. Morris threw 7.1 IP but allowed 10 baserunners. He has an outside shot at making the opening day roster and would slot in as a swingman and provide depth.
Jacob Lindgren, a young lefty, has posted eye-popping K/9 rates throughout his minor league career. Moreover, health has been a limiting factor, throwing less than 65 IP since 2014. He has the stuff and makes up to push for innings provided he can stay on the field.
We could also see former prospects Aaron Blair, Matt Wisler, and Lucas Sims see time in the pen. Wisler has been nothing short of terrible since being acquired in the Craig Kimbrel deal in 2015. It warrants mentioning though that at the time of the trade he was the Padres top prospect. The pedigree and stuff are there, and Wisler is only 25. In his seven spring innings, he has been extremely useful.
He along with Blair still have options, and the Braves may choose to utilize them in a starting capacity at AAA. However, if injuries hit the rotation, they may go along with Max Fried and Lucas Sims will get the first crack as opposed to top prospects Kolby Allard and Mike Soroka.
Out of Options
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Speaking of options, Luke Jackson threw 50.2 IP for the Braves in 2017. He along with Ramirez, Whitley, and Josh Ravin will get long looks in the spring. Jackson and Ravin claimed from the DDodgersin November have struggled in a small sample size. With the bounty of arms in camp, Ravin and Jackson will need to start putting up zeros for a shot to make the team
The success of the Braves bullpen will rely on three factors. The stability and development of the rotation. Teheran, Folty, McCarthy, Newcomb, and one of Kazmir, Gohara, and Fried will have to stay healthy and effective to avoid overuse of the pen.
As much as the success of the 2018 Braves revolves around the development of their top prospects and young players, manager Brian Snitker will also need to develop as a manager. As Sam Meredith of Talking Chop pointed out, Snitker has developed a reputation for misusing players.
Rex Brothers was extremely unlucky in 2017. He had a 7.23 ERA but a 3.66 FIP and a 12.55 K/9 ratio!
— Sam (@SamTheMan180) March 1, 2018
Rex was also used incorrectly big time.
13.2 IP against righties and 10 IP against lefties.
Against RH: .273/.375/.473 w/ 17K.
Against LH: .216/.293/.351 w/ 16K.
Rex Brothers was not the only case. Snitker’s loyalty to Jim Johnson was a point of many Braves’ fans frustrations in 2017. Defined bullpen roles with usage that is based on putting these young pitchers in the best role to succeed are vital which brings us to last factor.
Next: Braves 2018 Season Preview
The bullpen will need to take advantage of opportunities given and instill trust in the manager and the fan base. The talent is there. The ability to throw hard and post 10+ K/9 is there. Now all they need to do is collectively put it together and Atlanta Braves fans could be in for a treat in 2018.