Yankees and Red Sox have similarly dominant but thin pitching staffs

The Yankees and Red Sox seem about to engage in a 162-day fight for supremacy of the AL East. But with three weeks until opening day, each still needs to add a starting pitcher.

The New York Yankees have put together what has the potential to be a high-powered offense, strong and deep. Manager Aaron Boone talked about that during the YES broadcast on Thursday, mentioning just how many great young hitters the Yankees have in their system.

Not long after, third-string backup first baseman Billy McKinney blasted a grand slam. Whatever the Yankees problems are this year—and there will be problems—offense is least likely to be among them.

Starting pitching, on the other hand, might be. That is not meant to denigrate the starting five, however.

RHP Luis Severino was third in the CY Young voting last year. And among all of his sterling 2017 numbers, perhaps his hits to innings pitched is his most impressive: 150/193. But if any want to argue that his ERA (2.98) or strikeouts-to-walks ratio (230/51) is more telling, we won’t let it come between us.

Yet he is only tied on his team for the title of Ace.

Two of a Kind

Masahiro Tanaka and fellow righty had the definition of an up and down season last year, routinely alternating between great starts and horrible ones.

On July 3rd, for instance, he went seven innings while surrendering five hits and only one run. But his very next start on July 9th, Tanaka gave up five runs and six hits in just 4.1 IP.

The two men reversed roles, however, when it counted most. Sevvy started four games during the Yankees joyous but wholly unexpected ride through the playoffs. But his postseason ERA of 5.63 could not have been what he or the Yankees wanted.

And that total includes his first postseason start, which lasted one-third of an inning; Sevvy walked off the mound with an 81.00 ERA that night.

Tanaka, meanwhile, became the Hiro the Yankees needed. He started three games, pitched 25 total innings, and left an ERA that can only be found under a microscope (1.44). That’s what an Ace does in the playoffs.

Backing them up is Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia, and Jordan Montgomery, giving the Yankees a nice blend of youth and experience.

Sunny Days

RHP Gray was the Ace of the Athletics staff when he came over in July, but the A’s weren’t all that good. However, even though his ERA went up slightly (3.43 with Oakland/3.72 with NY), he still proved to be a front-line starter.

Gray pitched in only two postseason games for a total of 8.1 innings last year, but at least his second start was auspicious as he went five innings and gave up just one earned run. Having him as the Yankees third best pitcher gives them an advantage over most clubs.

However, just because I listed Gray third does not mean he will be pitching in that slot. No, it probably makes more sense to insert a left-hander between the first two righties and Gray. And that means LHP CC Sabathia.

Sabathia is working on a one-year deal as his exceptional career winds down. But his value both on the field and in the clubhouse is incalculable, as Severino told me back in February:

Pater Familias

More importantly, Sabathia put up excellent numbers in 2017. After wandering in the wasteland for years trying to go from a young fire-baller to a crafty vet, Sabathia’s ERA last year (3.69) was his best since 2012.

His exceptional postseason was capped by his two starts in the ALCS, which yielded a minuscule 0.96 ERA.

The problem for Sabathia, and the Yankees is not how well he threw, but how many times. CC only logged 148 IP last year, down from 179 just the year before. And that fantastic ERA in the post? He threw only 9.1 innings en route to it.

But modern bullpens are built for the Sabathia’s of the world, as long as the others can carry their weight. That should not be an issue for LHP Jordan Montgomery: After logging 163 total innings between the majors and minors last season, he should have no restrictions.

Again, this is excellent news for the Yankees. Montgomery had a great first half, then stopped throwing his change-up. But he still finished with 3.88 ERA over his 29 starts, good enough for sixth in the Rookie of the Year voting.

When every starter has an ERA below four; when there are two legitimate Aces on the staff; and, when your third best pitcher was another team’s best; that is when you have the makings of an elite staff.

That seems like a lot of good news for the Bombers. The bad news? Their division rival Red Sox might have a better one.

The 20/20/20/20 Club

While it is unlikely that Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley hit as many home runs as their counterparts, even with the addition of J.D. Martinez, they are likely to steal a lot more bases.

Here’s how Rob Bradford of WEEI put it, though we join the article hearing from newcomer J.D. :

“I think it’s definitely unique,” he said of the Red Sox’ batting order. “There’s a lot more speed. I feel like there are a lot of guys here who burn you on the bases. They’re going to run. It’s dangerous when you have guys who can move like that.” But how unique? Potentially historically unique. It’s really not a stretch to think that the Red Sox could become the first team ever to claim four players with at least 20 home runs and at least 20 stolen bases in a single season. Both Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi accomplished the feat last season, while Xander Bogaerts is seemingly creeping to 20 in each category for the past two years.

The Sox, like the Yankees, expect great things from their offense. But they, again like the Yankees, might be expecting too much from their starting staff.

It Takes A Village

That is not to imply that the nine pitchers listed will under-perform; far from it. If the postseason were starting today, each team would have every reason to feel confident.

But it is the regular season that will soon be starting. And that requires a lot more than nine pitchers. Last year, for instance, the Sox used 10 starters over the course of the season, while the Yanks used 11.

Yet, right now, both teams are remarkably thin on big league caliber replacements.

That is likely to cost at least one of these teams some much-needed wins. But at least Boston has the upper hand, at least as far as a sixth starter is concerned.

A Limit to His Abilities

Eduardo Rodriguez will begin the season in the number five slot, and there is a reason for cautious optimism.

The lefty has been groomed for several years but has been inconsistent over his first three seasons. 2015 saw him post a 3.85, which ballooned to 4.71 the following season. He rebounded last year, somewhat, by posting a more-than-respectable-for-a-fifth-starter 4.19.

That leaves Eduardo facing several questions. For instance, which version will the Sox get this year? Does this give Boston too many lefties? Rodriguez threw his most MLB innings last season, 137. How many can he pitch this season, and how will the Sox’ plan to manage that affect their rotation?

That has become a lot more relevant as RHP Steven Wright seems less likely to start the season healthy, as the Boston Herald and Chad Jennings recently pointed out:

Less encouraging news on Steven Wright, who seemed to be a candidate for the Opening Day roster when camp opened, but who still has not faced hitters this spring. Wright had more extensive knee surgery last season. “He’s having good days and bad days,” Cora said.” Wright is no longer on course to break camp with the team.

If the Sox can get the Wright of 2016, when he posted 156 IP to a 3.33 ERA, their rotation will be so much better and more in-depth. But will they? He is already taking longer to rebound than expected. Or maybe it should have been supposed as he is 33.

A Rotation or a Merry-Go-Round?

Which brings us to the next big question: What do the Sox do if it takes Wright two months of pitching to regain his form? Three months? The entire season? Or what happens if Rodriguez regresses before Wright is ready?

Those questions would be a lot easier to answer if Boston were to acquire another starting pitcher. specially as their farm system is barren. None of their top pitching prospects—Jay Groome, Tanner Houck and Bryan Mata—has ever pitched above A ball.

However, they could still pay for one of the free agents, such as Lance Lynn, Jake Arrieta, and Alex Cobb. And they should.

I know they are already over the cap, but in for a penny in for a pound.

And that is because the Sox face a serious contender in the Yankees and need to go all in. They tried to make due with Doug Fister, and he put up a 4.88 for his 90 IP. Boston should try to do better this year. But they are not, at least not so far.

The plan seems to be a good one in this era: Wait until July and acquire a front-line starter then. That way you get an Ace for the stretch and playoffs, when you need that person the most, for less than half the year’s salary.

But that is playing a dangerous game.

And one the Yankees are also seemingly content to play; they, too, need to go all in. That is even truer in their case as their starters face more questions.

Exchanging Youth for Experience

Whereas Sale looks solid at the top of the Sox staff, the top is where the questions start for the Yankees’.

Severino looked great last season, but one year does not a career make. While he is very likely to answer a lot of questions with affirmative answers, he is still young enough to be in, and I’ll believe it when I see it, phase.

Tanaka, on the other hand, showed plenty the team did not want to see. Again, there is much more hope than fear among the Yankees that 2017’s 4.74 ERA was an aberration, but the fact remains that 4.74 was his ERA; talk about a “prove it to me” season.

Gray brings the fewest questions, especially as he is not being counted on as the Ace. His quicker delivery so far this Spring Training bodes well in that regard. But CC is at an age where every season is a question mark.

At some time in the not-too-distant future, Sabathia and the Yankees will reach a tipping point; we’ve seen it before. Last season Sabathia was a five or six innings pitcher, getting into at least the seventh inning only six times.

And only one of those was after June.

What if he turns into a four or five-inning pitcher who rarely reaches the sixth? Or a three or four inning pitcher? This is how careers sometimes wind down.

But at some point the team finds itself taxing its bullpen too much every fifth day to recover, and the trade-off of ERA for fewer and fewer IP is no longer worth it. Will that happen this year?

Monty In Control

If so, they will not have Jordan Montgomery to call up. And that’s because he has already won the fifth starter’s job. But if Sevvy is still in a prove it phase, where does that leave Monty?

He admitted in our interview earlier this year that he still needs to control his emotions:

That can be easier said than done. And it would surprise no one if Monty struggled at some point this season and needed some time in Triple-A. Who will the Yankees turn to if and when at least one of these starters needs time off?

Yes, Michael Pineda

Remember that RHP Michael Pineda started 17 games for the Bombers in ’17, all to a 4.39 ERA. While it is good that he is gone, and the same could be said of LHP Jaime Garcia and his 4.82, their losses leave the depth chart dangerously thin.

In fact, that mostly gets it down to righty Luis Cessa.

He got five starts before the trades started happening and posted a 4.75. Is he the first man up if Severino receives a blister? Or Gray gets hit by a line drive? That is hopefully true as the next most experienced reserve is LHP Caleb Smith, he of the 7.71 ERA.

Close observers of the Yankees farm system might counter that the team has plenty of reserves who are untested but big league ready. Spring Training has not proven that to be true.

A Quadruple-A Player

RHP Chance Adams has impressed almost everyone in baseball, except the Yankees. The be-stubbled Brendan Kuty reported as much earlier this week for NJ.com:

“Adams [took] a little step forward,” [Manager Aaron] Boone said. “He really struggled with his command the first time. This time it was better. Still didn’t really have that great fastball command yet but better. A step in the right direction for him. Hopefully he can just get more and more comfortable.”

The Yankees are not featuring him in camp, and he does not seem like the sixth starter they want.

Meanwhile, LHP Justus Sheffield has never pitched above Double-A and was one of the first players cut from camp. That is not to say he will not turn into an excellent pitcher, just that he is far too far away to be counted on anytime soon.

That leaves Domingo German as probably the best option, right now.

While he acquitted himself well last season—14 IP/3.14 ERA—the Yankees did not trust him to start a single game. He might have become a lot more promising this Spring, but what happens if this relatively untested rookie melts down in his first starting opportunity?

You Take the Good; You Take the Bad

This is a fact of life: Both the Yankees and Red Sox will need more than five or even six pitchers in 2018. And as they are in a fight for the division title, each would be wise to add another front-line starter.

Otherwise, the Yanks and Sox might find themselves looking back fondly on the roughly 90 innings the teams got from Pineda and Fister, respectively.

The good news is that there are pitchers available. While the Sox can probably only buy a starter, and they should, the Yankees can either buy or trade for one. And they should.

Because, right now, these teams are playing a dangerous game.

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They want to wait until the prices come down, either in dollars or farm hands. But both are in win-now mode, the Sox even more so than the Yankees. It would be foolish to squander this opportunity by squeezing the corners.

What if one team loses two starters in May? Then the plan of waiting to improve at the trade deadline becomes moot; that team might not be worth saving by then. Or at least might have surrendered too big of a lead to the other so that only the Wild Card is a reality.

The possible result is that the Yankees might face another one-game playoff instead of a guaranteed five-game series; talk about a precarious situation. But that is precisely the chance both the Red Sox and Yankees are taking.

Any questions?