Philadelphia Phillies: Concerns for the early season remain
The Philadelphia Phillies are virtually ready for the regular season. And yet, there are still reasons for concern.
Aside from nudging their 24th and 25th players into place, the Philadelphia Phillies are set for the coming season. They may surprise everybody by signing Alex Cobb, but that seems less likely now than signing Jake Arrieta did a week ago, so – hey – it could happen. (It won’t.)
The Phillies front office has added expensive talent to the clubhouse, and along the way made some moves that have been questioned, but all in all, they are set up as well as any last place team from the previous season could hope to be. They have an enthusiastic young manager (Gabe Kapler), a former Cy Young winner (Arrieta), a selective hitter at first base who is a defensive plus (Carlos Santana), a left fielder who might hit 50 home runs (Rhys Hoskins), and an apparent superstar about to be promoted from Triple-A (Scott Kingery).
Moreover, the supporting cast for these five isn’t that horrid either. Aaron Nola, Nick Williams, Aaron Altherr, and J.P. Crawford could all one day be called “top three” or “top five” at their respective positions. Of course, because their manager loves versatility, some of those positions aren’t determined yet, but everybody’s young enough for adjustments.
Two others could be added to this able supporting cast, but that brings us to the point here. The two players unlisted above are listed below. Though legitimate major leaguers, those two are first among the greatest concerns for this presumably improved Phillies squad.
The Focus Problem Children
Number 5 – Maikel Franco, 3B: Simply put, Franco’s numbers fell off a cliff last year, and they have to climb that cliff again this season. He slashed .230/.281/.409, fully 17, 19 and 15 points below his career numbers with those woeful figures included. The infielder is pretty able defensively, and he won’t turn 26 until late in August, but improvement at the plate is demanded at this point.
Franco didn’t come close to passing the proverbial eye test last season far too often. He flailed; he appeared to have no plan; maybe he gave up sometimes. Whatever it was alone or in combination, he looked terrible. Mar. 13 against the Rays in Tampa, however, he looked good at the plate, with a home run to left and a hard single to right. Will he look that good the next time he bats?
Number 4 – Odubel Herrera, CF: Although less worrisome offensively than Franco, Herrera also loses focus at the plate, and sometimes on the bases with semi-appalling results. He is an even better player defensively than Franco, and doesn’t actually seem to lose his focus ever in the field. This may be more important this season than last, though, as he may have to cover the inexperienced Hoskins in the left-center field gap.
It would be nice to see Herrera also be a bit more selective at the plate, which he has shown he can do, but only in for a while. The three adjectives that apply to this player are talented, goofy, and streaky. He’s inconsistent enough to be a bigger problem, potentially, because his talent doesn’t exactly say it’s this year or never. He’s going to be around.
The Good Problems?
Number 3 – Cesar Hernandez/Kingery, 2B: This is a good problem to have, but it could be mishandled. Hernandez is a capable veteran who has hit .294 the past two seasons. He could probably play third if need be. Kingery is quite apparently the second baseman of the Phillies future, and he could also probably play third.
After Kingery stays in the minors long enough to tie him to the team through 2024 (minimally a couple of weeks into the season), it will be interesting to see whether problem number five above has gotten off to a fast or slow start. That may affect whether Kingery arrives quickly or later, where he plays to start his big league career, and whether Hernandez is traded or benched. It would seem prudent to play Kingery at the position he plays best, but manager Kapler has already shown he doesn’t care about that notion as such.
Number 2 – Hoskins, LF: There isn’t a team in baseball that wouldn’t want the two concerns that come with Rhys Hoskins, but quite a few would likely undo the concern the Phillies created for this player themselves. That is, bringing in Santana at first base moved Hoskins to left field, and it remains to be seen how he functions there for the best part of a season.
In his third of a season in ’17, Hoskins played at least part of a game 30 times in the outfield and 27 times at first. What will happen when the left field number jumps to 120 or 130? Second, it remains to be seen whether Hoskins is actually a 25-home run guy or a 45-plus bomber. Everyone recalls the excitement of his setting various “fastest to” records last season on his way to hitting 18 homers in 34 games. Does anyone really know what happened, however, when he didn’t hit another one in his final 16 games? Was it exhaustion? Had some pitchers figured him out? Both? Is the second Hoskins concern a very good one to have? Maybe not.
The reality is we don’t know he’s not just a serviceable fielder who manages 25 home runs in a few good years. Arguing against that is the fact the 24-year-old selects pitches to swing at very well for his age.
The Largest Concern (Still)
Number 1 – the starting pitchers not named Arrieta or Nola: Much has been made of this matter, perhaps so much so that undue pressure will land on a bunch of guys with losing records thus far in the majors.
It’s easy to pick on pitchers who lose more than they win, even if they’re playing for the bad offensive teams the Phillies have been for several seasons. Jerad Eickhoff, for example, pitched 248 innings in a bit more than a season when he was 24 and 25, posting a 3.45 ERA. This is a good job done for a bad team, a job suggesting he would be a valuable “workhorse.”
Then the 6-foot-4, 245-pounder ran into arm problems in ’17 at the age of 26. Hopes are semi-high he and other unproven starters on the Fightin’ Phillies will match the team’s apparent offensive potential. A quick start by Eickhoff would make “semi-high” simply “high.”
Next: Arrieta's job goes beyond pitching
Such a start would mean that with Arrieta, Nola and Eickhoff, the Philadelphia Phillies would have a legitimate shot at winning three out of every five games. That would surely make Philadelphia a destination to consider for those high-profile players who will become free agents at the end of this summer.