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MLB: 5 most predictable hitters for 2018

By Bobby Mueller

NEW YORK, NY - OCTOBER 08: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) Francisco Lindor
NEW YORK, NY - OCTOBER 08: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) Francisco Lindor /
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NEW YORK, NY – OCTOBER 08: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) Francisco Lindor /

MLB: Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians

  • 657 PA, .291/.354/.488, .842 OPS—Average of all sources
  • 658 PA, .293/.357/.492, .849 OPS—Best projection (Steamer)
  • 653 PA, .292/.354/.481, .835 OPS—Worst projection (THE BAT)

At the very top of the list of players with the most similar projections from these seven sources is Francisco Lindor, a two-time all-star and top-five finisher in AL MVP voting last season. Every source has Lindor with a batting average between .287 and .294, an on-base percentage between .348 and .357, and a slugging percentage between .481 and .492. The average of all the sources (shown above) would be a higher on-base percentage and slugging percentage than Lindor’s career marks, but he is playing his age-24 season so it wouldn’t be unusual for him to be still improving.

One thing to note is that the shape of Lindor’s offense changed last year. In 2016, he had a .358 OBP and .435 slugging percentage. Last year, those numbers were .337 and .505, and Lindor more than doubled his previous best home run mark from 15 to 33. His batted ball profile showed a significant increase in hard hit percentage, from 27.5 percent to 35.2 percent, along with a big increase in fly ball rate, from 28.4 percent to 42.4 percent. It looks like Lindor was part of the “fly ball revolution.” If he continues down the same path, he will hit with more power and a lower on-base percentage, like he did last year (.273/.337/.505).

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