MLB: Denard Span, Tampa Bay Rays
- 492 PA, .268/.330/.401, .731 OPS—Average of all sources
- 526 PA, .268/.332/.407, .739 OPS—Best projection (ATC)
- 523 PA, .268/.329/.397, .726 OPS—Worst projection (ZiPS)
Like Francisco Lindor, Denard Span has a very narrow range of projections in each of the three rate categories, but particularly so in on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The low projection for Span’s OBP is .327, just five points lower than his high projection of .332. His range for slugging percentage is from .395 to .407. This is who Denard Span is, a guy who will hit close to .270, with a .330-ish OBP and .400 slugging percentage.
The projections also expect Span to continue to hit for a bit more power than he did for most of his career. In his first eight seasons in the big leagues, he averaged five home runs per season, taking the pitcher deep once every 107 plate appearances. He’s averaged 11.5 home runs per season over the last two years, leaving the park once every 49 plate appearances. The projections have him hitting between eight and 11 big flies in 2018.
Span turned 34 in February and is no longer the guy who stole a career-high 31 bases with the Nationals in 2014. He’s averaged around 12 steals per season since then and is projected to steal 11 this year. Of course, the Rays might want to put the brakes on Span. He’s been successful just 63 percent of the time over the last two seasons. That’s not helpful.