MLB: Eric Hosmer, San Diego Padres
628 PA, .286/.356/.461, .817 OPS—Average of all sources
623 PA, .290/.360/.467, .827 OPS—Best projection (THE BAT)
653 PA, .281/.351/.456, .807 OPS—Worst projection (ZiPS)
It’s surprising that Eric Hosmer has such a narrow range of projections considering how up-and-down his career has been. He’s the Bret Saberhagen for the Millennial crowd. In his seven big league seasons, his OPS has gone from .799 to .663 to .801 to .716 to .822 to .761 to last year’s career-best .882. He’s hit as high as .318 and as low as .232. His best on-base percentage was last year’s .385. His worst was in 2012 when he barely topped .300. He also had a career-low .359 slugging percentage in 2012, which was almost 130 points below his career-best .498 mark last season.
Despite the yo-yo pattern of Hosmer’s career, all seven projection sources are very much in agreement about what to expect in 2018. He’ll hit somewhere in the .280-.290 range with an OBP in the .350s and a slugging percentage in the .460 range. That would be a step down from last year’s .318/.385/.498 and put Hosmer in the vicinity of 2-3 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). For that, he’ll be paid $144 million over the next eight years. Meanwhile, former teammate Mike Moustakas is projected for 2.7 WAR this year and recently signed a one-year contract with an option for a second.