MLB: Didi Gregorius, New York Yankees
- 588 PA, .271/.314/.439, .753 OPS—Average of all
- 594 PA, .269/.317/.447, .764 OPS—Best projection (Davenport)
- 593 PA, .269/.311/.435, .746 OPS—Worst projection (ZiPS)
Most, if not all, projection systems start with a basic Marcels-like framework that uses the last three (or more) seasons of statistics from that player to project what he’ll do going forward. The most recent seasons are weighted more than past seasons, but those past seasons still have an influence. In the case of Gregorius, this three-year stretch of play includes his 2015 season, when he hit .265/.318/.370. Those were the days when he was known as a light-hitting shortstop who struggled against left-handed pitching.
After not hitting much in his first four seasons, Gregorius broke out with a 20-HR season in 2016 and followed it up with 25 more home runs last year. With his 2015 season still being part of the projection framework, the seven sources expect him to hit a little more as he did in 2016 than 2017. That would give him around 20 homers and 70-80 RBI instead of the 25-HR, 87-RBI season he had last year. On the powerhouse Yankees team, that might place him fifth on the team in those two categories, behind Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Greg Bird.
Next: MLB’s tampering accusations of Aaron Judge are ridiculous
Projections aren’t foolproof, of course, but there is a method behind the numbers. These are the five players who have the most-similar predictions from seven sources. Up next will be the five players who have the least-similar projections from these sources.