New York Mets: Top 10 rookie-eligible prospects for 2018
We have reached the point of the offseason where prospect lists abound. We continue our top 10 prospects for every team with the New York Mets!
Our team top 10 prospect lists at Call to the Pen are spearheaded by Benjamin Chase. Today, he gives us the top ten prospects for the New York Mets.
This season, we will be going through teams by division, in order of 2017 record. The AL East will be first, followed by the AL Central and AL West. Then the focus will shift to the National League in the same order.
The format will be as it was last season for the same lists, with a system review, which will include last season’s list. The top 10 will follow in reverse order, two players per page in order to give adequate space to each player. Major trades or international signings will lead to an updated top 10!
Finally, don’t go away after #1 is revealed as each list will also contain a player either signed in the 2017 international free agent class or drafted in 2017 that isn’t part of the top 10 and should be tracked. Last season’s mentions in that area made over half of the top 10s this season, so this is a great way to get to know a player who could be making a big splash in the organization.
System overview
With multiple players at the big league level who were either developed by the New York Mets system or brought up from that farm system after being acquired as minor leaguers, it could be assumed that the Mets have a fairly quality system working, but in fact, it’s been a rough go lately.
The Mets have pushed a number of their top prospects recently to the major leagues to contribute, so they are no longer eligible for this list, yet they will likely end up in the minor leagues, and in many cases, that has hurt development by pushing them up too quickly or without a firm role.
With early spring injuries already beginning to pile up, perhaps it’s a blessing that much of the choice fruits of the system remain in the lower levels currently.
Let’s take a look at that system….
Next: #9 and #10
10. Tomas Nido, C
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 4/12/1994 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: AA Binghamton Mets, MLB New York Mets
2017 Stats: Minors: .232/.287/.354, 404 PA, 8 HR, 30/63 BB/K; Majors: .300/.300/.400, 10 PA, 0/2 BB/K
Info: Nido was drafted in the 8th round in 2012 out of high school after transferring to Florida high school from Puerto Rico during high school. He has worked his way up the New York Mets system slowly, showing excellent skill development.
(Nido) has worked his way up the New York Mets system slowly, showing excellent skill development
Defensively, Nido is above-average across the board with a good chance to at least be a quality backup. He has a plus arm and great reactions that he uses to control the run game. Nido also rates very highly in pitch framing metrics.
With the stick, Nido is a question mark. He has certain above-average power. However, he tends to approach each plate appearance to make contact, and puts way too many balls on the ground. If he could get his swing lofted, he very well could hit 30+ home runs.
Nido will be in AAA to open 2018 and could push aside what has been a fairly ineffective catching position for the New York Mets.
9. Chris Flexen, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 7/1/1994 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A St. Lucie Mets, AA Binghamton Mets, MLB New York Mets
2017 Stats: Minors: 10 GS, 61 1/3 IP, 1.76 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 4.3% BB, 27.2% K; Majors: 14 G, 9 GS, 48 IP, 7.88 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, 15% BB, 15.5% K
Info: When a system is truly struggling, a guy like Flexen can stand out. With the New York Mets system in the spot it is, here we find Flexen.
Flexen is a quality back-end rotation piece with a fastball that sits low-90s and can touch 96 and adjusts his grip to get movement on the pitch. He pairs that with a high-spin curve that generates plenty of weak contact. His third pitch is an average change that he’s still developing movement on, and he works with a slider that really is not consistent enough to even label yet, but could be a useful fourth offering.
Flexen has a sturdy build at 6’3″ and 250ish pounds that portends an inning-eater, and he’s shown the ability to command and control his pitches well in that mold. He doesn’t have a true swing-and-miss pitch, something that was highly evident in his big league run in 2017.
The New York Mets hope that they do not have the injury issues that they did in 2017 that forced Flexen up to the big league club and that he can spend the entire season honing his sequencing and command in the upper minors.
Next: #7 and #8
8. Desmond Lindsay, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 1/15/1997 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Columbia Fireflies
2017 Stats: .220/.327/.388, 251 PA, 8 HR, 4 SB, 33/77 BB/K
Info: While he was a 2nd round selection in 2015 out of high school by the New York Mets, Lindsay was the Mets’ first pick of that season’s draft, and they attempted to swing for the fences with the selection. Injuries have delayed his ability to make an impact since being drafted, in spite of some impressive raw tools.
When he’s fully healthy, Lindsay has a power speed combo that is tough to match in the system and, frankly, one of the more impressive in the minor leagues in raw tools, with plus raw power and plus raw speed. Injuries have sapped his on-field speed and may impact his ability to ever truly reach his full speed on the field.
Defensively, Lindsay is still raw in the outfield as a high school infielder that the Mets converted to the outfield, using his speed and quality instincts to play center field at an above-average level. He possesses just an average arm in the outfield, so if he’s unable to handle center going forward, he will likely need to move to left field.
Lindsay has been noted for allowing too many pitches to go by, even good pitches, not showing pitch selectivity, but seeming just letting multiple pitches go by until he’s in a hole, which does lead to a solid walk rate, but it also leads to a significant strikeout rate. He will need to show some adjustment in that approach at the plate to access his raw power more consistently in game.
Lindsay really needs a healthy season, but he will be moving to high-A St. Lucie, which is a fairly hitting-friendly park, but in a pitching-friendly league in the Florida State League, so it will be interesting to watch his development this season.
7. Marcos Molina, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 3/8/1995 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A St. Lucie Mets, AA Binghamton Mets
2017 Stats: 18 G, 17 GS, 106 2/3 IP, 3.21 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6% BB, 19.9% K
Info: Molina was signed out of the Dominican in 2012, and he’s had a seeming up and down career in the New York Mets system ever since, including Tommy John surgery that cost him a lot of the 2015 and 2016 season.
Molina has the looks of a mid-rotation workhorse, and he has the stuff to match
Built strong and sturdy at 6’3″ and just over 200 pounds, Molina has the looks of a mid-rotation workhorse, and he has the stuff to match. His fastball velocity has varied quite a bit since his surgery, but it settled in around 90-91 in 2017, touching 93-94 with excellent sink on the ball.
Molina’s best secondary pitch is a plus slider that breaks late with depth that really gets plenty of swing and miss from both sides of the plate. What helped him make an impact in high-A in 2017 was the development of his changeup. Some variance in his command (though his control remained excellent) on the pitch in AA allowed him to get hit a little harder, but he still flashed quality skills.
Perhaps he’s not going to grow into an ace, but Molina should be able to use his plus control and development of his third pitch to handle the upper minors in 2018 and likely make a play for a rotation spot with the New York Mets in 2019.
Next: #5 and #6
6. Peter Alonso, 1B
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 12/7/1994 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A St. Lucie Mets, AA Binghamton Mets
2017 Stats: .289/.359/.524, 393 PA, 18 HR, 3 SB, 27/71 BB/K
Info: Many were curious whether Alonso’s prodigious collegiate power would translate to pro ball. That, and his defensive weaknesses even at first base, dropped him to the 2nd round for the New York Mets in the 2016 draft, where they were happy to take the risk.
The glove has not advanced much at all, which is why he remains in this spot on this list as he’s a likely DH in the system of a National League team. He committed 19 errors in 2017 at first base, and not on difficult throws or stretches, typically on bobbling easy, routine plays that any major league first baseman is going to be expected to make 100% of the time. However, the bat has more than shown its worth.
Alonso led the Florida State league in home runs, a fairly impressive feat in a tough hitting environment. He has double-plus raw power and scouts are not in total agreement on his contact tool, but the general consensus is that he’s got a chance to have at least an above average hit tool to go with the power due to his selectivity at the plate.
Along with his defense, Alonso has shown some worries in his splits at the plate, with a combined .770 OPS against right handed pitchers over his two pro seasons and a 1.166 OPS against left handed pitching. He will need to answer those questions as he gets his first taste of upper level ball this year in AA.
5. Thomas Szapucki, LHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 6/12/1996 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Columbia Fireflies
2017 Stats: 6 GS, 29 IP, 2.79 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 8.5% BB, 22.9% K
Info: When he’s on the mound, there may not be a pitcher who looks better in the New York Mets system than Szapucki. Keeping him on the mound has been the problem, and it will be the issue through the 2018 season as he had Tommy John surgery in July of 2017 that will keep him out all year.
When he’s on the mound, there may not be a pitcher who looks better in the New York Mets system than Szapucki
Szapucki has a tough arm angle for hitters to pick up as he throws from a low 3/4 slot, sometimes dipping near sidearm for effect, not seemingly due to a lost release point as the timing is intentional. His fastball sits 92-93 and can run up to 96 with unique movement due to that arm angle, spinning it to the right-handed batter’s box in a sweeping, sinking movement in the lower velocity registers, and seemingly spinning “backward” (as told to me by an opponent in 2017) when tossed up in the zone at the top end of his velocity.
He also uses a slider with some significant break to it as well and shows the ability to control a change, though his arm deception on the pitch is currently below average, which leaves the pitch less effective.
By many evaluators standards, Szapucki was headed toward a top half of the top-100 lists sort of season, likely ranking as the top New York Mets prospect, certainly the “next big arm” in the Mets lineage before the TJS. Now it will be 2019 before we get to see how he responds and comes back.
Next: #3 and #4
4. David Peterson, LHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 9/3/1995 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: short-season A-ball Brooklyn Cyclones
2017 Stats: 3 GS, 3 2/3 IP, 2.45 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 6.3% BB, 37.5% K
Info: While Peterson had some interest out of high school, he really shot up in his draft season due to a drastic reduction in his walk rate and increase in his strikeouts. The New York Mets made Peterson the 20th overall selection in 2017.
(Peterson) may not translate to a frontline starter, but it should be a mid-rotation inning eater type
Peterson has an excellent frame at 6’6″ and 235-245 pounds. In spite of his height, he is able to repeat his mechanics and show elite command of all of his stuff.
Though he’s got the size and frame to look like he should have more velocity, Peterson works in the low 90s with excellent sink and late movement. He works a trio of offspeed pitches, starting with a low-80s slider that has unique movement and that Peterson can control very well. He also has a sinking change that is above-average and a curve that is more of a “show me” pitch but is effective, especially against righties early in counts.
That may not translate to a frontline starter, but it should be a mid-rotation inning eater type that generates a ton of ground balls. While a non-baseball surgery reduced his pro time after drafting, Peterson will likely open 2018 in full-season ball, whether that’s low-A or high-A, and he could move very quick through the system.
3. Justin Dunn, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 9/22/1995 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A St. Lucie Mets
2017 Stats: 20 G, 16 GS, 95 1/3 IP, 5.00 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 11.1% BB, 17.3% K
Info: Dunn converted from the bullpen to the rotation in his draft season at Boston College and was so impressive that he shot up draft boards, landing with the New York Mets at 19th overall. He showed well in his pro debut in 2016, but 2017 showed some of the growth Dunn still needs as a starter.
While many of the concerns coming out of college were about the limited repertoire of Dunn as far as moving to a starter’s role, that’s not been an issue at all. His fastball and slider are both plus pitches and his change up is an easy above-average grade with very good arm deception.
Dunn runs his fastball up to the mid-90s and his slider up to the mid-80s with very similar arm action and great late movement on both pitches, so there is plenty of deception to hitters between the pitches.
The biggest obstacle for Dunn currently is one that is not surprising at all, given his background. He struggles holding his stuff, and especially his control as he gets into the 4th and 5th inning. Building up that stamina will help his control and the effectiveness of his overall pitch repertoire.
Dunn could use a fastball variant (split finger, cutter, etc.) to help with his splits against lefty hitters, but he’s really shown much better than many projected already and a future as a high-end mid-rotation starter or back-end reliever is certainly in play. He’ll likely hit the upper minors in 2018, whether the New York Mets open him there or have him work near their complex in high-A to open the season.
Next: #1 and #2
2. Mark Vientos, 3B/SS
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 12/11/1999 (18)
2017 teams/levels played for: Gulf Coast League Mets, Kingsport Mets
2017 Stats: .262/.318/.398, 211 PA, 4 HR, 15/46 BB/K
Info: In personal bias, Vientos very possibly was my favorite player in the 2017 draft class. That the New York Mets were able to snag him with a 2nd round pick is simply a steal and could end up being an answer to long-term issues in the system at third base.
Vientos was the youngest player chosen in the first two days of the draft, not even turning 18 until December. He was one of the most talked-about players of the 2016 showcase circuit, however, as he was an impressive physical figure at 6’4″ with plenty of sculpt to his frame.
That physical frame leads many to assume that he’s going to eventually move off of shortstop because he’s already a below-average runner and relies on instincts and elite hands to succeed at short, but he did show well in his pro debut. He could be played at short for a while. Heck, Miguel Cabrera played shortstop all the way to the major leagues.
Vientos has a definite plus hit tool, with an impressive ability to contact the ball throughout the zone, and he’s flashed plus power, showing even more power in his pro debut than his high school senior season. With that offensive upside and the ability to be a possible elite defender at third down the line, the New York Mets should be very happy with Vientos, likely getting their first look at him in full-season ball this year.
1. Andres Gimenez, SS
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 9/4/1998 (19)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Columbia Fireflies
2017 Stats: .265/.346/.349, 399 PA, 4 HR, 14 SB, 28/61 BB/K
Info: Another one of the New York Mets signings of the top prospects in an international market, Gimenez was ranked 2nd in the 2015 international market. He then came out in the Dominican Summer League and dominated in his first pro season in 2016.
(Gimenez) was one of the youngest in the South Atlantic League, but was able to show well in spite of that
The Mets jumped Gimenez up to full-season ball from the DSL, and he was one of the youngest in the South Atlantic League, but was able to show well in spite of that.
Gimenez may not be built like a typical shortstop, with a lower-half build, but he has excellent first step quickness and instincts along with tremendous body control and fringe-plus range. He projects to stick at short or be a premium second baseman if he does have to move.
The stick is where there are more questions still to answer with Gimenez’s left-handed swing receiving mixed reviews, with some seeing an empty contact-oriented approach out of his swing, and some seeing eventually Gimenez developing gap power and possibly 10-15 home run power, though not likely a major speed guy either, likely maxing out at 15-20 stolen bases either.
Gimenez showed enough in an injury-riddled season to show the New York Mets that he’s ready for high-A in 2018.
Next: Newcomers to watch
2017 Acquisition: Ronny Mauricio, SS
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 4/4/2001 (16)
2017 teams/levels played for: none
2017 Stats: none
Info: Mauricio received the New York Mets’ record for an international signee, getting $2.1 million in signing bonus in July. Many felt Mauricio was the best prospect on the market, but he had been pushed into too many showcases and was dragging in a number of them for scouts, causing him to fall behind other top names on the July 2nd rankings.
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The Mets hope that this over-exposure works out to their gain in the long-run. Mauricio has a well developed skill set that has allowed him to handle shortstop in spite of a lack of speed. His natural instincts serve him well at this point, but as he fills into his 6’2″ frame and possibly grows even more, he’ll likely need to move to third or an outfield position. Even without the speed, however, his knack for the game should allow him to be an above average defender.
Offensively, Mauricio profiles as a player that should fill into plus power with an opportunity to also have above-average contact ability at the plate. His baseball instincts on the field carry over to the plate, where he’s shown surprisingly good idea of the strike zone for a teenager.
Mauricio is obviously very far off, but with the high ceiling of talent that he has, the need the Mets have at 3rd base all along the system depth, and his advanced underlying skills, there will be temptation to rush him, something the New York Mets have been guilty of in the past with top prospects.
Hopefully the Mets let Mauricio’s play determine his pace of ascension up the system, starting with a likely assignment to the Gulf Coast League in 2018 to open his pro career.
So that is the New York Mets top 10 prospects for 2018. Who is too high? Too low? Missing entirely from the list? Comment below!!