Toronto Blue Jays: The Case for Teoscar Hernandez
Could Teoscar Hernandez eventually be the man for the Toronto Blue Jays?
After slugging 8 HR in 95 at-bats to finish 2017, Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, found himself once again on the outside looking in. Acquired from Houston during the 2017 season, Hernandez could never nail down a role in the Astros crowded outfield. In 41 games in 2016, Hernandez reached base at .304 clip while striking out 25% of his plate appearances.
The Astros called up Hernandez again in 2017. An injury on defense forced Hernandez to the DL. He never played another game for Houston. Once healthy, he returned to AAA before being dealt to Toronto in the Nori Aoki deal.
Hernandez’s strong 2017 finish gave Jays fans a reason to hope, going into the 2018 campaign. He possesses above-average tools across five categories, and while none of his tools are considered plus, his athleticism and speed are something the Jays desperately lacked in 2017.
However, Atkins and Shapiro added to the outfield depth with the acquisitions of Randal Grichuk and Curtis Granderson. Those two will flank Kevin Pillar on the corners, and Steve Pearce is expected to hold down the fourth OF role while providing depth at 1B as well.
The moves by Atkins make a lot of sense despite Hernandez’s strong finish. More times than not, John Gibbons was forced to put a lineup out that included role players Ryan Goins, Darwin Barney, and Ezequiel Carrera. So the moves to bring in quality everyday big league bats was more than warranted. Moreover, despite Hernandez’s speed, athleticism, and power, the youngster struck out in a whopping 38% of his at-bats.
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Looking back at Hernandez’s minor league career, he dominated High A in 2015 to the tune of .294/.376/.550 with 17 HR and 30+ SB. He struck out in 25% of his at-bats. But in 98 AA at-bats that season, he struck out 36.7% of the time.
The following season he made the necessary adjustments to improve his BB and K rates, 6% and 25% respectively but saw his OPS plummet to .637. 2016 was better. He struck out 17% at AA. After earning a promotion to AAA, he improved to 15% while hitting over .300 at both levels.
These numbers tell us a lot about his development. Despite his fringey five-tool profile, Hernandez is the type of player that will need reps to show improvement. He also appears to struggle with change. After dominating AAA in 2016 and 17 for Houston, he struggled after the trade to the Jays. Hernandez saw his K rate increase from 21% to 27%. However, he has also shown an ability to adapt to increased reps and improve at each level with patience.
Furthermore, his tools are exactly what the Toronto Blue Jays need on a daily basis. He has more upside than Granderson and Pearce and is a better athlete than Grichuk. At worst, he is a solid fourth OF that can steal a base, hit for power, and play above average defense. Something that was sorely lacking in 2017. At best, he has the ceiling of an everyday corner outfielder that can slash .280/.340/.480 with 20+ HR and SB. His contact rate will not improve by another season in AAA awaiting one of the fragile Jays to land on the DL.
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His track record suggests that his development is best served at the level at which he struggled. He won’t find plus sliders and curveballs in Buffalo. His contact rate and hit tool will improve with reps in Toronto. The tools that he brings to the table are worth the growing pains for the Toronto Blue Jays.