Phillies’ rotation battle heats up
With each outing by a Phillies’ candidate for the last two starting spots, the decisions by general manager Matt Klentak could become more difficult and will come down to the wire, or will they?
Forgotten misperception:
While fans revel in the pitching acquisition by the Philadelphia Phillies, they might not realize the competition for the bottom of the rotation is perhaps the most interesting development in camp. That stated, some of the faithful were dreading the upcoming 162 needlessly.
IN OTHER WORDS: “As you inquire into issues and turn judgments around, you come to see that every perceived problem appearing “out there” is really nothing more than a misperception within your own thinking.” – Byron Katie
For the third consecutive Opening Day, Aaron Nola and Vince Velasquez will be two of the five starters. Of course, Jake Arrieta will be there to mentor them from a player’s perspective. Unfortunately, Jerad Eickhoff will be on the disabled list with a strained lat.
Two rotation candidates dial up 93-mph smoke regularly: Nick Pivetta and Zach Eflin. Ergo, they are first and second on pitching coach Rick Kranitz’s depth chart. But the hurler with better stuff is Pivetta.
Of the finesse moundsmen, Ben Lively has major league experience and is accurate enough for the Phils’ rotation. On the other hand, right-hander Tom Eshelman hits the catcher’s mitt more than the MLB average of 70 percent. He’ll eventually challenge the weakest link on the starting staff.
As for some Phillies sites, unfortunately, those locals “muted” their happiness with negative comments. One stated the organization is playing games by having a rotation including Eickhoff and Velasquez, and he demanded real pitchers. Easy to say, hard to do.
For others, Arrieta was a bad move because his numbers are declining due to his age. Again, the poster did not offer any names because a GM’s job is finding those aces. Of course, other franchises will demand Rhys Hoskins and Scott Kingery for openers.
Beginning spring training, Klentak, Kapler, and Kranitz agreed with their preferences for the bottom of the five-man staff. And the reason for the order of Pivetta, Eflin and Lively as one, two and three is their stuff. Ergo, a pitch down the middle at 91 mph gets hit, and one at 93 mph is not always problematic.
The average velocity of four-seam fastballs:
- MLB average: 93.19 mph.
- Pivetta: 94.7 mph.
- Velasquez: 94.2 mph.
- Eflin: 93.7 mph.
- Nola: 92.7 mph.
- Arietta: 92.6 mph.
- Lively: 91.6 mph.
- Eshelman: 90.5 mph.
- Eickhoff: 90.5 mph.
Three arms, two slots:
Pivetta has an electric heater and secondary pitches, but the Phils were able to acquire him due to his control difficulties. In other words, he dominates the opposition when he has average MLB accuracy: 70 percent. But he only had eight acceptable efforts out of 26 for 2018.
In his first opportunity, Pivetta fired four scoreless innings before a three-run fifth. But the right-hander bounced back on March 16: five frames and two earned runs. On the other hand, he will make two more appearances this month.
When fans look at 2017’s stats, Pivetta with a 6.02 ERA and Eflin with a 6.16 ERA have similar results, but the reasons were different. Eflin had pitched through an inflamed elbow until it stopped him. He had a 2.81 ERA for his first five starts and a 13.20 ERA for his last three before landing on the disabled list.
In his first of four starts, Eflin twirled five scoreless one-hit frames and is making a strong case for the rotation. But keep in mind, he still has three more outings to go. And he will have to stay healthy.
Even though Lively had a 4.26 ERA for his 15 starts last summer, he depended on control and struggled in five of those appearances. In other words, the expectation is 80 percent, not 66.6 percent. Translation: He’d have the five spot until somebody replaces him.
Lively, a fan favorite, finished his second extended outing: five innings and three earned runs. He worked three scoreless frames in his previous effort before allowing three runs in the fourth. Two more shots!
Other considerations:
As for Eshelman, his accuracy is better than 70 percent: the MLB average. Translation: 75 percent is a mid-rotation arm even without a 93-mph fastball. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have a 40-man spot either and won’t unless Klentak cuts somebody.
Like Kingery, Eshelman will probably open the campaign with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs. Meanwhile, the front office will evaluate the four Triple-A relievers on the 40-man roster during that time. Yes, the premium is on pitching.
The breadcrumbs from Kranitz are clear: Eshelman has been relieving most of the time, but his workload is increasing. His last bullpen performance was one out short of five scoreless innings. And although he’ll probably be with Lehigh Valley, management could evaluate him here for two more outings.
Regarding the three hurlers in the mix, March’s competition isn’t like last year’s between Velasquez and Adam Morgan. Velasquez won the slot because of his electric repertoire and by not pitching poorly. In other words, Pivetta only needs a tie to capture a spot.
APPLIES HERE: “The only thing that should surprise us is that there are still some things that can surprise us.” – Francois de La Rochefoucauld
The end of camp is the beginning of regular-season lineups: tougher outs. As for Pivetta, Lively and Eflin, who would slot fourth in the rotation today? Eflin!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
The average velocity of four-seam fastballs:
- MLB average: 93.19 mph.
- Pivetta: 94.7 mph.
- Velasquez: 94.2 mph.
- Eflin: 93.7 mph.
- Nola: 92.7 mph.
- Arietta: 92.6 mph.
- Lively: 91.6 mph.
- Jake Thompson: 91.6 mph.
- Mark Leiter: 91.4 mph.
- Eshelman: 90.5 mph.
- Eickhoff: 90.5 mph.
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Phillies starters:
- Arrieta, 32: 30 Gms., 168 1/3 Inn., 14-10, a 3.53 ERA, a 4.16 FIP, a 4.11 xFIP, a 4.15 SIERA, 2.4 fWAR and a 1.22 WHIP.
- Nola, 24.5: 27 Gms., 168 Inn., 12-11, a 3.54 ERA, a 3.27 FIP, a 3.38 xFIP, a 3.60 SIERA, a 4.3 fWAR and a 1.21 WHIP.
- Eickhoff, 27.5: 24 Gms., 128 Inn., 4-8, a 4.71 ERA, a 4.30 FIP, a 4.86 xFIP, a 4.72 SIERA, a 1.9 fWAR and a 1.52 WHIP.
- Velasquez, 25.5: 15 Gms., 72 Inn., 2-7, a 5.13 ERA, a 5.49 FIP, a 4.56 xFIP, a 4.70 SIERA, a 0.1 fWAR and a 1.50 WHIP.
Pivetta, 25:
- Phillies: 26 Gms., 133 Inn., 8-10, a 6.02 ERA, a 4.87 FIP, a 4.26 xFIP, a 4.32 SIERA, a 1.1 fWAR and a 1.51 WHIP.
- AAA: 5 Gms., 22 Inn., 5-0, a 1.41 ERA, a 1.71 FIP, a 2.85 xFIP and a 0.84 WHIP.
Eflin, almost 24:
- Phillies: 11 Gms., 64 1/3 Inn., 1-5, a 6.16 ERA, a 6.10 FIP, a 5.21 xFIP, a 5.08 SIERA, a -0.2 fWAR and a 1.41 WHIP.
- AAA: 8 Gms., 7 Starts, 43 1/3 Inn., 1-4, a 4.57 ERA, a 3.80 FIP, a 4.43 xFIP and a 1.45 WHIP.
Next: Phillies: Roster-roulette players
Lively, 26:
- Phillies: 15 Gms., 88 2/3 Inn., 4-7, a 4.26 ERA, a 4.97 FIP, a 5.58 xFIP, a 5.27 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.29 WHIP.
- AAA: 16 Gms., 97 Inn., 7-5, a 3.15 ERA, a 2.88 FIP, a 3.97 xFIP and a 1.16 WHIP.
Eshelman, 23.5:
- AAA: 18 Gms., 121 Inn., 10-3, a 2.23 ERA, a 3.20 FIP, a 3.76 xFIP and a 0.94 WHIP.
- AA: 5 Gms., 29 Inn., 3-0, a 3.10 ERA, a 5.02 FIP, a 3.57 xFIP and a 1.10 WHIP.