Chicago Cubs: Top 10 Rookie-Eligible Prospects for 2018
We have reached the point of the offseason where prospect lists abound. We continue our top 10 prospects for every team with the Chicago Cubs!
Our team top 10 prospect lists at Call to the Pen are spearheaded by Benjamin Chase. Today, he gives us the top ten prospects for the Chicago Cubs.
This season, we will be going through teams by division, in order of 2017 record. The AL East will be first, followed by the AL Central and AL West. Then the focus will shift to the National League in the same order.
The format will be as it was last season for the same lists, with a system review, which will include last season’s list. The top 10 will follow in reverse order, two players per page in order to give adequate space to each player. Major trades or international signings will lead to an updated top 10!
Finally, don’t go away after #1 is revealed as each list will also contain a player either signed in the 2017 international free agent class or drafted in 2017 that isn’t part of the top 10 and should be tracked. Last season’s mentions in that area made over half of the top 10s this season, so this is a great way to get to know a player who could be making a big splash in the organization.
System overview
When you tear down your major league team and build up a farm system to the point of brimming with talent, you hope that you can see much of that talent come to fruition at the right time together to be an impact team all together. Recently, we’ve seen this work with the Kansas City Royals, Chicago Cubs, and the Houston Astros.
The Cubs brought up a lot of the best of their young bats and some of their better young arms to build up their current team that is laden with youth around the diamond, without a projected position starter that’s even 29 as the season opens, let alone 30 (though 36 year-old Ben Zobrist and 35 year-old Chris Gimenez project to be part of the bench).
With that level of youth, the Chicago Cubs understandably utilized their top prospects in trades, and while it’s left their top levels of their system barren with impact players, there is still some high-ceiling talent that could take off in the low levels, which is really the one thing keeping the Cubs from the bottom system in the game right now, though that ranking is understandable.bryan
Let’s take a look at that system….
Next: #9 and #10
10. Bryan Hudson, LHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 5/8/1997 (20)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A South Bend Cubs
2017 Stats: 24 GS, 124 1/3 IP, 3.91 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 9.6% BB, 15% K
Info: When the Chicago Cubs drafted the 6’8″ Hudson in 2015 in the 3rd round out of high school in Illinois, they knew he would be a long-term development project due to his height, and he’s handled his development one step at a time.
Hudson filled in over the 2016-2017 offseason to a solid 220 pounds and appears much more comfortable in his frame on the mound
Working with a fastball that sat 86-89 in his first pro season, Hudson filled in over the 2016-2017 offseason to a solid 220 pounds and appears much more comfortable in his frame on the mound. That has led to an uptick in velocity as well, as he still sits in the upper 80s, but he frequently touched mid-90s with his fastball with tremendous plane and sink that appears faster due to the extension he gets on the pitch in his release.
More impressive than his raw velocity spike, however, was the uptick in quality of Hudson’s offspeed stuff. He saw his curve really snap off well as he got more comfortable in his frame. His change is still a project and likely his focus in 2018.
Hudson did not generate a ton of swing and miss in 2017, but his control drastically improved, and he saw a huge groundball rate on his primarily two-pitch stuff. Continued improvement on his command, development of his change up, and a possible fastball variant (split finger, cutter, even just different sinker grips) could allow for much better swing rates as the next step in his development.
Hudson is not a sexy stat prospect, but when you watch him, you see the projection of a lefty mid-rotation starter that could eat up a ton of innings with low pitch counts due to his extreme ground ball rates allowing him to pitch deep into games frequently.
The Chicago Cubs will see Hudson in the next step of his slow-but-steady development in 2018 at high-A.
9. Thomas Hatch, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 9/29/1994 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Myrtle Beach Pelicans
2017 Stats: 26 GS, 124 2/3 IP, 4.04 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 9.2% BB, 23.2% K
Info: After a year away from baseball to rest a strain in his UCL, Hatch was able to pitch for Oklahoma State and lead them to the 2016 College World Series, but the injury to his UCL and not having surgery done on it left many teams assuming that Tommy John surgery was a certainty in his future and allowed him to drop to the third round, where the Chicago Cubs nabbed him.
Hatch rested his arm the rest of his draft season, but he came out in 2017 and showed no ill effects from the rest or his aggressive initial assignment to high-A in his pro debut. His control was solid, keeping the ball around the zone, but his command at times was shaky and showed the rust from his time off from June of 2016 to opening day of 2017 in game situations.
His sinker in college was renowned for its effectiveness, and Hatch has added a four-seam fastball to his repertoire to adjust batters’ eyes and give him another tick of velocity. The sinker works in the low-90s, touching 94-95 while his four-seamer ran up to 96.
Hatch’s best secondary pitch is his fringe-plus slider that has excellent break and generates weak swings from both sides of the plate. His change has made big strides, but still is an average pitch with work to do.
With improvement in locating the ball where he wants rather than just within the zone, Hatch will see his effectiveness tick up even further, with a projection of a Derek Lowe type mid-rotation starter that could move quickly to the Chicago Cubs if he can see his changeup tick up and his command step forward. He’ll likely open 2018 at AA.
Next: #7 and #8
8. Jen-Ho Tseng, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 10/3/1994 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: AA Tennessee Smokies, AAA Iowa Cubs, MLB Chicago Cubs
2017 Stats: Minors: 24 GS, 145 1/3 IP, 2.54 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 6.4% BB, 20.4% K; Majors: 2 G, 1 GS, 6 IP, 7.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.7% BB, 30.8% K
Info: The Chicago Cubs made Tseng part of their huge 2013 international class, giving him $1.625 million to sign him out of Taiwan. Eloy Jimenez and Gleyber Torres were also part of that big class.
Tseng has made a steady progression through the system, opening his pro career in full-season ball in 2014 and stepping up one level at a time, though he did open the year repeating AA, but he earned his way to AAA mid-way through the season, and improved in his performance, earning a brief call up to the big league club.
In AA Tennessee, Tseng put up excellent numbers, with a 2.99 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, but when he got to AAA, he saw those numbers tick up to a 1.80 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
With an athletic 6’1″ frame and an easy, repeatable delivery, it is not surprising that command and control is one of the biggest positives of Tseng’s pitching profile. He works with a fringe-plus fastball that sits 90-93, a fringe-plus change, and a pair of average breaking pitches. He sequences all four pitches well and knows how to set up hitters well with location and pitch mix.
Tseng will be in the mix for a long-man spot in the bullpen in spring, but likely will end up in the AAA rotation as the first option as a fill-in if any injury were to fell one of the Chicago Cubs rotation members.
7. Brendon Little, LHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/11/1996 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: short-season A-ball Eugene Emeralds
2017 Stats: 6 GS, 16 1/3 IP, 9.37 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 11.3% BB, 15% K
Info: After being a fairly well-regarded prospect out of high school, Little only saw 4 innings in his first year at North Carolina, leading to him transferring out to State Junior College of Florida for 2017, where the Chicago Cubs grabbed him with their first round pick in 2017.
The pitch that had scouts talking all spring and hitters looking foolish was Little’s ridiculous 12-6 curve
While his pro debut was not what he would have liked, Little has a tremendous profile on the mound with a fastball that can reach 96-97 and maintain incredible late life. He did sit in the low-90s primarily in his pro debut, assumingly attempting to reign in his command and control.
The pitch that had scouts talking all spring and hitters looking foolish was Little’s ridiculous 12-6 curve that was a definite plus as an amateur, but seemed to lose consistency in its break in his pro debut, leading to struggles placing the pitch consistently in the zone.
While his change is a legit third pitch with solid movement and good arm deception, Little struggled to see success with it as well in his pro debut. Much of his struggles are due to a delivery with a lot of moving parts that he has to stay sharp all the way through or it can fall out of alignment and his control quickly wavers.
Whether the Chicago Cubs will look to modify his delivery or work with his current delivery to make it more consistent, delivery will certainly be a focus for Little as he opens in low-A in 2018.
Next: #5 and #6
6. Oscar De La Cruz, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 3/4/1995 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: Arizona Rookie League Cubs, high-A Myrtle Beach Pelicans
2017 Stats: 13 G, 12 GS, 56 2/3 IP, 3.34 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 5.5% BB, 20.2% K
Info: Most teams had seen De La Cruz as an infielder before he switched to the mound not long before the 2012 signing period, which meant most teams were unsure of what he was, allowing the Chicago Cubs to sign him for $85,000.
De La Cruz progressed slowly in the Dominican Summer League and had a big first year stateside in 2015, when he was placed at short-season A-ball in Eugene, and he responded with an impressive 73/17 K/BB rate over 73 innings and a 2.84 ERA.
Injuries have held De La Cruz back ever since, seemingly never having the same issue twice. When he’s on the mound, his fastball is one of the more impressive in the system, sitting 92-95 with extension that plays up his velocity along with tremendous plane and late life on the pitch and the ability to touch 97.
His secondary pitches are as good as the fastball when on, but they’re not “on” all that often together. His curve shows best, flashing plus, but he can completely lose the feel for its break at times. His change is an average pitch, but can play up when he can get on top of the pitch to get similar late movement to his fastball.
With the injuries and already hitting 23 without ever exceeding 75 innings in a season, it is hard to envision a future in the rotation for De La Cruz, but he could be a #2 there if he could finally get healthy and get the feel on his pitches. He could also be an elite reliever if the Chicago Cubs would choose to go that route with him, especially in the role of a multi-inning reliever to go 2-3 times per week with his raw stuff, but that would require a significant improvement in his durability in 2018.
5. Adbert Alzolay, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 3/1/1995 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Myrtle Beach Pelicans, AA Tennessee Smokies
2017 Stats: 22 GS, 114 1/3 IP, 2.99 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 7.3% BB, 23.3% K
Info: After moving slowly through the Chicago Cubs since signing in 2012 out of the Dominican, Alzolay had a big season statistically in 2017, and that has him jumping up a lot of lists, even making a top 100 list this winter.
Alzolay had a big season statistically in 2017, and that has him jumping up a lot of lists
A small righty, listed at 6′ and 180 pounds, but likely more like 5’10” and 170ish, Alzolay uses every bit of his frame in generating his velocity, up to 96 in 2017. To his credit, the uptick in velocity in 2017 came due to work with Cubs coaches on his delivery and their throwing program.
Alzolay often seemed to catch hitters off guard due to working fast on the mound, essentially getting in motion once he got the ball back from the catcher and had his backstop set. He has a trio of fringe-average pitches that he works with his fastball that played up due to this pace. Probably the best of his secondary pitches is his curve, which has a chance to get swing and miss and weak contact both.
Without a second even above-average pitch, Alzolay’s future as a starter is fairly limited, but quick pacing and excellent location that he found easier with his new delivery could allow him to be a #4/5 in a rotation. He’ll likely open 2018 in AAA.
Next: #3 and #4
4. Jose Albertos, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 11/7/1998 (19)
2017 teams/levels played for: Arizona Rookie League Cubs, short-season A-ball Eugene Emeralds
2017 Stats: 10 GS, 43 IP, 3.14 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9.3% BB, 26.2% K
Info: One of the most-awaited performances in 2017 in the Chicago Cubs minor league system was Albertos, who was originally signed out of Mexico in 2015 for $1.5 million but had struggled to get on the mound due to injury in 2016.
The best pitch in Albertos’ arsenal is a change that is an easy plus and could end up a double-plus
While he made just 10 starts, there was plenty of positive to take away from the season for Albertos. More than anything, he showed an easy, clean delivery and remained healthy all season, and that will be key moving to forward as this could be a very special arm.
Albertos worked at 93-94 in 2017, but his scouting reports were that he would sit mid-90s and bump triple digits. He may have been dialing back some to work on command/control, due to rust, or to try to play up his change even further, but he does have more in the tank, with excellent late life on the pitch.
The best pitch in Albertos’ arsenal is a change that is an easy plus and could end up a double-plus. He has some of the best arm deception of any pitcher in the minors on the pitch, and then the pitch has late life that typically mimics his fastball as well, giving him a true deception pitch. If there is an issue with the change, it’s over-reliance on the pitch, which could reduce its effectiveness in the long run if he’s not careful.
While his slider has excellent tilt and good fastball deception out of hand, Albertos needs to develop more trust in the pitch and, frankly, simply use it more. It has the chance to be a plus pitch in its own right.
With less than 50 professional innings in, the Chicago Cubs are going to be very careful with Albertos’ arm still. It would not surprise if he opened the season at extended spring, but he will likely be sent to low-A South Bend when he is sent out from camp.
3. Victor Caratini, C
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/17/1993 (24)
2017 teams/levels played for: AAA Iowa Cubs, MLB Chicago Cubs
2017 Stats: Minors: .342/.393/.558, 326 PA, 10 HR, 1 SB, 27/48 BB/K; Majors: .254/.333/.356, 66 PA, 1 HR, 4/13 BB/K
Info: Originally from Puerto Rico, Caratini was selected by the Braves out of Miami-Dade JuCo in the 2nd round in 2013. The Braves didn’t seem to know what to do with Caratini defensively, shifting him between third and catcher, but his bat always played.
The Chicago Cubs acquired Caratini in a 2014 deadline deal and they’ve primarily utilized him behind the plate or at first base when they want to keep his bat in the lineup, but because is athletic enough to do it, the team worked with Caratini at third base and the corner outfield positions to allow him to be more flexible at the big league level off the bench.
Defensively, Caratini’s arm is only average behind the plate, but he does show quality in his ability to block and is a quick study on framing and reportedly develops rapport quickly with his pitchers.
His skills behind the plate are not will make a major league career for Caratini, though wearing the tools of ignorance will certainly help. Caratini has a quick, powerful stroke from both sides of the plate that results in more gap power than home run power, but does barrel up plenty of balls.
The Chicago Cubs signed Chris Gimenez to a minor league deal, and he will likely get the backup role, but Caratini could end up on the bench as well with his ability to play other positions and switch-hit as well as offer a third catching option, the type of player Joe Maddon loves to have at his disposal.
Next: #1 and #2
2. Alex Lange, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 10/2/1995 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: short-season A-ball Eugene Emeralds
2017 Stats: 4 GS, 9 1/3 IP, 4.82 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.3% BB, 31.7% K
Info: When Lange and fellow SEC draftee Alex Faedo matched up early in the season in a LSU/Florida matchup, it was electric to see one of the nation’s best curves against one of the nation’s best sliders. On that day, Lange had the look of the better overall pitcher in depth of repertoire, even though Faedo’s Gators got the 1-0 win on that day, with Lange going the distance.
In a deep college pitching draft, the Chicago Cubs drafted Lange 30th overall, but it was still surprising when his medicals caused a lower-than-slot signing bonus. Lange showed no ill effects as a pro from whatever the issue was (never disclosed publicly).
Lange’s curve is an absolute double-plus pitch, with mid-80s velocity and a sharp, deep break. He did use the pitch a lot in college, and he will need to be better about working off his fastball in pro ball. The heater is a solid pitch, sitting in the low-90s, but touching 96 with a lot of weight on the pitch.
Lange’s change is going to be a big thing for him. I’ve seen a few sessions of him snapping off what would be easy 60-grade changes this offseason, and that makes this ranking easier for me, but game use and session use are two different things. Having a third plus pitch would certainly move Lange from a mid-rotation/future closer projection to a guy who could be a solid #2.
Excellent “bulldog mentality” on the mound should allow Lange to succeed with an aggressive assignment from the Chicago Cubs this spring, likely to high-A, in spite of still working on things. He could move quickly if the change plays in game as well as it’s looked in session.
1. Aramis Ademan, SS
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 9/13/1998 (19)
2017 teams/levels played for: short-season A-ball Eugene Emeralds, low-A South Bend Cubs
2017 Stats: .267/.324/.427, 317 PA, 7 HR, 14 SB, 18/54 BB/K
Info: Sometimes the numbers simply don’t tell the whole story. Ademan’s 2017 is a great example of just that. Just 18 for the entirety of the minor league season, Ademan was considered an advanced fielder and able to handle full-season ball with the glove, so the team chose to push him, and he was able to go the whole season without embarrassing himself.
Ademan at the plate was a revelation in 2017
The Chicago Cubs originally signed Ademan for $2 million out of the Dominican due to his advanced glove. While he still makes some errors of judgement that will come with more instruction and experience, Ademan has all the tools defensively, with quick feet, soft hands, and above-average arm, and plus instincts off the bat that should allow him to be a plus shortstop down the line.
Ademan at the plate was a revelation in 2017. Many thought he would be a glove-first player and struggle with the full-season assignment, but he showed confidence in the box, good zone recognition, and a powerful swing that projects to above-average power from a true shortstop.
Ademan has very quick feet on take-off, but is more average in his top-end speed, so he will need to work on his base-stealing skills as he was caught 8 times in 22 attempts (64% success) after stealing being caught 9 times in 26 attempts in the DSL in 2016 (65%). Most teams won’t let him go with that level of success, no matter the kind of jump his feet can get.
Ademan spent just 29 games with low-A, so it’s feasible that the Chicago Cubs could have him open the season in the Midwest League again, especially to have him go through the rigors of early-season weather in the upper Midwest, but he should be up to high-A at some point in the season at just 19, an impressive feat indeed.
Next: Newcomers to watch
2017 Acquisition: Nelson Velazquez, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 12/26/1998 (19)
2017 teams/levels played for: Arizona Rookie League Cubs
2017 Stats: .236/.333/.536, 126 PA, 8 HR, 5 SB, 15/39 BB/K
Info: Velazquez moved from his native Puerto Rico to Florida to get more exposure, but was kicked out of high school in Florida (seemingly for academic reasons), so he returned back to the island. That meant less coverage in his draft season, so outside of a big performance in Puerto Rico’s predraft showcases, no one had really had good eyes on Velazquez before the draft.
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That all changed after the Chicago Cubs drafted Velazquez in the 5th round and he made his pro debut in the Arizona Rookie League. He hadn’t played in some time, so he had some issues with pitch recognition and zone recognition outside of the gate, but by the end of the season, he had really notably picked up in those areas as well.
Velazquez isn’t a hulking build sort of guy, but he does possess a typical right field profile with raw double-plus power and a plus arm. He’s raw in his routes defensively, but unlike the typical right field profile, he’s got fringe-plus speed as well that helps him overcome that right now.
Velazquez has a lot of learning left to his game at this point, but the raw tools are such that in a shallow system, he could rocket to the top by the end of 2018 quite feasibly.
The Chicago Cubs will likely leave Velazquez in extended spring, but how he handles instruction there could lead to him coming out of extended spring straight into low-A.
Next: CTTP's top 150 prospects
So that is the Chicago Cubs top 10 prospects for 2018. Who is too high? Too low? Missing entirely from the list? Comment below!!