MLB Top Prospects: A big international signing bonus doesn’t always lead to top prospects

We are at the tail end of prospect list season, and one thing notable about the 2018 MLB top prospects is their Latin heritage. However, does a big money bonus mean a big-time prospect?

As MLB top prospects are revealed by lists everywhere, many of the top players are of Latin heritage. In Major League Baseball, traditionally, players sign beginning on the July 2nd of the season they turn 16, though scouting amateur players never really finishes, with some players signing at 18, even 20, and still becoming big leaguers, though they certainly do not get the big signing bonuses.

That’s where this thought experiment began. I put together the top 150 prospects list for Call to the Pen based on the discussions I’ve had this winter and the players I’ve viewed over last season and the offseason on milb.tv.

Of the 150 players on the list, 44 had Latin American signing backgrounds, including 33 of the top 100. That’s an impressively high rate when you consider that a team will likely sign 25 or so players per season and usually only sign a dozen to 20 Latin prospects in July 2nd. Of my top 10 prospects, 6 were from Latin America, including 4 of my first 5. As Shohei Ohtani is also a foreign signee, all of my top 5 were international signings.

I wanted to take a look at the numbers given to those Latin signees and whether the big bonuses led to top prospects, or how they correlated. We’ve got a few different things to look at, so let’s get started at different looks at the numbers, starting with the biggest money of all into the Latin market, those coming from the island of Cuba.

Next: Cuban signees