MIAMI, FL - JULY 9: Members of the World Team are seen on the base path during player introductions prior to the SirusXM All-Star Futures Game at Marlins Park on Sunday, July 9, 2017 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Alex Trautwig/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
MIAMI, FL – JULY 9: Members of the World Team are seen on the base path during player introductions prior to the SirusXM All-Star Futures Game at Marlins Park on Sunday, July 9, 2017 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Alex Trautwig/MLB Photos via Getty Images) /
We are at the tail end of prospect list season, and one thing notable about the 2018 MLB top prospects is their Latin heritage. However, does a big money bonus mean a big-time prospect?
As MLB top prospects are revealed by lists everywhere, many of the top players are of Latin heritage. In Major League Baseball, traditionally, players sign beginning on the July 2nd of the season they turn 16, though scouting amateur players never really finishes, with some players signing at 18, even 20, and still becoming big leaguers, though they certainly do not get the big signing bonuses.
That’s where this thought experiment began. I put together the top 150 prospects list for Call to the Pen based on the discussions I’ve had this winter and the players I’ve viewed over last season and the offseason on milb.tv.
Of the 150 players on the list, 44 had Latin American signing backgrounds, including 33 of the top 100. That’s an impressively high rate when you consider that a team will likely sign 25 or so players per season and usually only sign a dozen to 20 Latin prospects in July 2nd. Of my top 10 prospects, 6 were from Latin America, including 4 of my first 5. As Shohei Ohtani is also a foreign signee, all of my top 5 were international signings.
I wanted to take a look at the numbers given to those Latin signees and whether the big bonuses led to top prospects, or how they correlated. We’ve got a few different things to look at, so let’s get started at different looks at the numbers, starting with the biggest money of all into the Latin market, those coming from the island of Cuba.
Next: Cuban signees
Big-money Cubans
In a market that will no longer exist in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, young Cuban players were able to sign for not just low 7-figure bonuses, but up to 8-figure bonuses, with the top being the $31.5 million the Red Sox gave to Yoan Moncada in February of 2015. The most recent 8-figure deal is the biggest one on this list.
There are currently six players on the top 150 from Cuba, and by order of signing bonus, they would rank:
Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox, $26 million, #44
Yadier Alvarez, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, $16 million, #81
Yusniel Diaz, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers, $15.5 million, #131
With four 8-figure signees on the 150 MLB top prospects list, Cubans by far have the most money represented in signing bonuses of any country. Because of the new CBA, future Cuban signees won’t be able to sign for the money that the players mentioned above.
The Cubans have had the heavy end of the market, so what has the “cheap” end looked like?
Next: Bargain bin
Bargain bin signees
While the stories that many have heard on prospects this winter during prospect season are how top prospects Ronald Acuna and Victor Robles, both consensus top 5 guys, took home less than $250K in signing bonus at signing, there are guys who took home less than six figures and ended up on the top 150 list. In fact, 7 of the top 150 received bonuses of less then $100,000.
There are two players who actually end up without a number. In spite of an exhaustive search, I cannot find a definitive number that Hector Perez of the Astros received in 2014 when he signed from the Dominican Republic. I reached out to a couple of scout friends who believed that he was in the $10-15 thousand range, but none could verify that for me 100%.
The one player who could be up in the majors in 2018 and may be the best deal in minor league baseball right now is infielder Luis Urias of the San Diego Padres. He did not receive a signing bonus all his own as his contract was simply purchased from his team in Mexico. Urias reportedly did not receive an individual financial bonus, though his team lavished him with departing gifts as he entered the Padres system.
In pure money, the cheapest sign was #128 on the list, towering 6’8″ right-hander Domingo Acevedo, who signed for $7,500. Fellow Yankees prospect (and fellow towering righty at 6’8″, though built VERY differently) Freicer Perez comes in with the next-lowest number on the top 100 list with a $10K bonus.
The next three players are all Phillies live arms, creating something of a reputation for developing loose-armed, high-velocity Latin arms into excellent young pitchers. While Franklyn Kilome (#125, $40K bonus) and Adonis Medina (#102, $70K) are near the bottom of the top 150, Sixto Sanchez (#14, $35K) is considered when discussing the top pitching prospect in all the game, and is among the consensus top 25 prospects in the game.
Seeing how many lower-priced players make the list does raise the question of what the best big league players earned when they signed? Let’s use this past year’s All-Star game as a proxy…
Next: Current MLB Bargains
Made it!
In the 2017 All-Star game, 71 players were on the roster. 17 of them were Latin signees. Let’s take a look at the break down of those 17 players.
Only two of those players were 7-figure bonus players, St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Carlos Martinez ($1.5M) and Minnesota Twins third baseman Miguel Sano ($3.125M). For how much of an outlier Sano’s bonus is among the 2017 Latin All-Stars, you could combine the bonuses of all the Latin All-Stars who signed for less than 7 figures and still have $800,000 to spend to equal Sano’s bonus.
On the lowest end is now-Atlanta Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte. I cannot honestly find sure numbers on his bonus, but the most reputable numbers had between $5,000-$10,000, signed by the Arizona Diamondbacks originally out of Venezuela. The Braves certainly feel he’s worth much more, having signed him to a 5-year, $30.5M+ contract in December of 2016.
Two team leaders from the American League West share the title of the lowest confirmed signing bonus at $15K. Jose Altuve is the defending American League Most Valuable Player on the defending World Series champion and just signed a $150M extension, so he’s come a long way from his modest signing bonus. Seattle Mariners slugger Nelson Cruz has had a more well-traveled path around the major leagues, but he fell one home run short in 2017 of his 4th straight 40 home run season as he enjoys a mid-30s career renaissance, up to 323 career home runs now without having a full season of plate appearances until he was 28 years old.
The idea of fitting the rest of the All-Stars in to Sano’s bonus was intriguing to me, so I thought I would do something similar with this year’s top 150. Take a look next…
Next: A thought experiment
A roster for the cost of one top prospect
Like the All-Star example with Sano, I thought we’d have fun with one of the higher-priced signees. My goal was to see if I could get an entire starting roster (8 position players, starting 5 pitchers, 1 reliever) for equal to or less than one of the top prospects.
My choice was to put together a full team for equal to or less than the bonus of the first Latin player with a 7-figure bonus on the top 150, #3 overall prospect Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., who the Toronto Blue Jays signed in 2015 for $3.9 million.
Infield We will start with catcher Keibert Ruiz ($140K). A few infielders had to play out of position a bit to make things work, which put Miguel Andujar ($700K) at first base, Jorge Mateo ($250K) at second, Francisco Mejia ($350K) at third, and Padres superstar Fernando Tatis, Jr. at shortstop ($700K).
Outfield Tremendous options for the outfield, but certainly hard to beat this talent and skill level for just over $500K combined! Top overall prospect Ronald Acuna ($100K) was an easy addition to lead the outfield that’s really made of three outfielders as Acuna will be in the outfield with Victor Robles ($225K) and Estevan Florial ($200K). All told, $525K for three outfielders in my top 20 overall players.
Pitchers A blend of upper minors and low minors was the goal along with top end talent, though the least-expensive initial signee leads the staff with #14 overall prospect Sixto Sanchez ($35K) leading the staff. Following Sixto are Sandy Alcantara ($125K), Albert Abreu ($185K), Fernando Romero ($260K), and fellow Phillies prospect Franklyn Kilome ($40K).
The lowest-priced player on the entire team is the pitcher chosen as the reliever, as towering 6’8″ Domingo Acevedo can launch his 103 MPH fastball and only cost $7,500 to sign.
Total cost The overall price tag on the team ends up at $3,317,500, almost $600K less than what Guerrero alone signed for! There are also 5 players in the top 15 overall prospects on the team, so there’s certainly plenty of top-end talent without spending big money.
So the next time you hear about a big Latin American signing for your favorite team, before you start planning out his big league future, you might want to also check out the most recent “cheap” signing by your team as well.
