Should the Baltimore Orioles begin rebuild or fight for outside playoff shot?
Pending free agents Manny Machado and Adam Jones make for a tough dynamic for the Baltimore Orioles in 2018. Should they trade each to aid a rebuild? Or keep them to fight for an outside playoff shot?
The Baltimore Orioles have some decisions to make in 2018. Their roster consists of multiple talented pieces; however, as a unit, it’s unlikely they have what it takes to make the postseason. A realistic outlook pins Baltimore as a .500 team this season. A top-heavy division and a top-heavy American League spells doom to the Orioles’ playoff chances even before opening day. They’ll have to assess their positioning as the season progressives to decide if it’s time to rebuild, or if they should fight for a wildcard spot.
Baltimore compares similarly to last year’s Kansas City Royals. The Royals’ three best players, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Lorenzo Cain, were pending free agents. Kansas City knew there was little chance to re-sign all three, so they had to decide if they should try to trade them for something in return, or keep them for a shot at a postseason bid.
The Royals opted to take the ladder route, keeping all three, just to fall short of the playoffs. Now, KC is without Hosmer and Cain (they re-signed Moustakas), and they received nothing in return to help them for the future. Kansas City has shortly transitioned into a team that is once again years away from contention.
The Baltimore Orioles have pending free agents Manny Machado and Adam Jones. Jones is entering his 11th season with the O’s; he’ll turn 33 years old in August. Jones remains an all-star caliber player, providing good pop and an elite center field glove. Thus, there’s a good chance he’ll be a popular commodity come free agency for teams needing to fill a void at any outfield position. Jones could prove his loyalty and re-sign with Baltimore, but is that a risk the Orioles can take?
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Manny Machado was the most talked about free agent this offseason, and he wasn’t even a free agent! Teams are already lining up and re-budgeting to see if they can afford Machado. He is the most anticipated free agent in quite some time, maybe more so than Bryce Harper, who is also a free agent in 2019.
Machado will contribute significantly this season and could help keep Baltimore in playoff sight. He could even win the MVP award. Regardless, the Orioles need to trade him. Machado is worth so much in prospects, plus, there is no chance he returns to Baltimore given the number of high-profile teams that have already expressed interest in him.
The Orioles do not want to make the same mistakes as the Royals did. If Baltimore sees Machado and Jones to free agency, then they’ll be set back for at least a few seasons to come. They’ll lose their best player, and they’ll forgo their best player’s immeasurable trade value.
A customary season from Adam Jones would result in a nice return as well. Together, Jones and Machado could upgrade a below average Orioles farm system to well above average.
Next: Orioles 2018 Season Preview
The Orioles have the luxury to wait until the 2018 trade deadline to decide how they want to handle each player. Anything shy of a division lead should spark the decision to trade both household names.
The American League East will be ruled by the Yankees and Red Sox for many years. It’s time for the Baltimore Orioles to play the intelligence card. Admitting defeat is never easy; however, if it creates an opportunity for a prosperous future, then it’s worth it every time.