Milwaukee Brewers Top 10 Rookie-Eligible Prospects for 2018
We have reached the point of the offseason where prospect lists abound. We continue our top 10 prospects for every team with the Milwaukee Brewers!
Our team top 10 prospect lists at Call to the Pen are spearheaded by Benjamin Chase. Today, he gives us the top ten prospects for the Milwaukee Brewers.
This season, we will be going through teams by division, in order of 2017 record. The AL East will be first, followed by the AL Central and AL West. Then the focus will shift to the National League in the same order.
The format will be as it was last season for the same lists, with a system review, which will include last season’s list. The top 10 will follow in reverse order, two players per page in order to give adequate space to each player. Major trades or international signings will lead to an updated top 10!
Finally, don’t go away after #1 is revealed as each list will also contain a player either signed in the 2017 international free agent class or drafted in 2017 that isn’t part of the top 10 and should be tracked. Last season’s mentions in that area made over half of the top 10s this season, so this is a great way to get to know a player who could be making a big splash in the organization.
System overview
Just last offseason, the Milwaukee Brewers were one of the top systems in all of baseball, boasting tremendous prospect depth in elite, top-100 guys and also depth in guys of value outside of the top 100.
In the 2017 season, the Brewers competed for the National League Central Division title and then one of the Wild Cards until the very end of the season, which meant that some of the top prospects of the system were used at the big league level and graduated or were utilized in deals to compete in season.
After falling just short of the playoffs, the Brewers pushed all of their chips to the middle this offseason, trading 3 of the original team top 10 I had coming into the season in a deal that brought outfielder Christian Yelich to Milwaukee from Miami.
That has significantly lessened the ranking of the Brewers farm system, but the system was used for what it should be – competing at the big league level, and if there is a playoff run in 2018, you can be sure no one will be worried about the ranking of the farm system.
Let’s take a look at that system….
Next: #9 and #10
10. Freddy Peralta, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 6/4/1996 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Carolina Mudcats, AA Biloxi Shuckers
2017 Stats: 25 G, 19 GS, 120 IP, 2.63 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 12.3% BB, 33.4% K
Info: Peralta was originally signed by the Mariners out of the Dominican Republic and spent multiple seasons in the DSL before having a solid season in the AZL, attracting the attention of Milwaukee Brewers scouts and getting him as part of the package for Adam Lind.
Peralta uses every bit of his small frame to generate low-90s on his fastball and break on his plus slider
Peralta is a small pitcher, but he is able to get surprising extension to the plate due to long limbs and fingers. He really made big progress with his change in 2016 to the point where it’s a fringe-plus pitch, behind his fastball and slider, but is still now a legit 3rd pitch.
Peralta uses every bit of his small frame to generate low-90s on his fastball and break on his plus slider. That max-effort leads to issues when his delivery gets off and his control wavers, as he’s had below-average control throughout this pro career.
If Peralta can even bring that up to an average level of control, he could have a nice career as a mid-rotation starter, but his current wildness makes a bullpen role much more likely, though he could be a good candidate for a multi-inning role in the bullpen. The Milwaukee Brewers will have Peralta in the upper minors in 2018, likely opening in AA.
9. Jake Gatewood, 1B/3B
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 9/25/1995 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Carolina Mudcats, AA Biloxi Shuckers
2017 Stats: .264/.333/.441, 570 PA, 15 HR, 10 SB, 51/161 BB/K
Info: A lean 6’5″ righty swinger, many have long seen Gatewood as a guy who would hit for big power but possibly struggle with plate coverage such that he wouldn’t be able to hit for enough average to make the power play.
The Milwaukee Brewers have allowed the surprisingly athletic Gatewood to get reps at multiple positions in his development, and when he had some vision correction done before 2017, he was able to show better reactions in the field and better ability to recognize the zone and pitches at the plate, allowing him to have his best season at the plate thus far.
Gatewood still had a big strikeout number, but he had 15 home runs along with 40 doubles in neutral to pitcher-friendly environments. He will need to continue to work to shorten his swing late in the count to create more contact, but he tends to be underrated for the development he’s made in the last year.
His better reactions on defense have allowed him to handle third base at an above-average level, and his plus arm showed up well at the position. He might be a guy who ends up finding an eventual home in right field where his long strides can allow his above-average underway speed to play up along with his big arm.
Gatewood has worked his way to AA, and the Milwaukee Brewers will be monitoring his development in Biloxi closely this year for sure.
Next: #7 and #8
8. Trent Grisham, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 11/1/1996 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Carolina Mudcats
2017 Stats: .223/.360/.348, 569 PA, 8 HR, 37 SB, 98/141 BB/K
Info: For those who are not aware, Grisham went by Trent Clark before a name change in 2017. He was one of the most elite athletes in the 2015 draft, drafted out of high school by the Milwaukee Brewers as the 15th overall selection.
Grisham has struggled to stay on the field as a pro, but had his first ever full season on the field in 2017. While his overly patient approach in the box leads to some bad swings and a rough batting average, he did show an excellent walk rate and was able to flash both power and speed.
Once on the field, his incredible athleticism shone through, though he’s likely going to end up in left or center due to average arm strength. On the bases, hamstring injuries have taken away some of his raw speed, but his instincts on the bases were incredible, stealing 37 in 42 attempts, and he had numerous examples of elite base running moments.
Grisham is still young enough to develop his skills into a starting-level outfielder. The Milwaukee Brewers will hope for another healthy season in AA in 2018.
7. Corey Ray, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 9/22/1994 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Carolina Mudcats
2017 Stats: .238/.311/.367, 503 PA, 7 HR, 24 SB, 48/156 BB/K
Info: Many felt that Corey Ray was the best collegiate athlete available in the 2016 draft. The Milwaukee Brewers agreed, giving him the largest draft signing bonus in franchise history after selecting him 5th overall.
Ray could not seem to find a comfortable set up in the box, a comfortable swing, and seemed to be seeing many pitches for the first time
After a mediocre performance in his pro debut, many expected Ray to show out in his full-season debut. That did not happen in the least. Ray could not seem to find a comfortable set up in the box, a comfortable swing, and seemed to be seeing many pitches for the first time in his life over the course of the season.
Even when he was highly-regarded, many worried about the length in Ray’s swing, worried he might end up striking out too much to be a top-of-the-order hitter yet not having the type of power to be a middle order hitter. He does have some power that could play to 10-20 home runs as he develops.
Ray’s speed still showed up well, stealing bases well when he’s on base and making up for any bad jumps in center field. He does have an average arm in center, but the range is such that the arm will play.
The Milwaukee Brewers will essentially have a complete rebuild to do with Ray this season, and he very well could end up repeating high-A to get his feet under him, but the raw tools underneath are so impressive that it’s hard to drop Ray much more than this.
Next: #5 and #6
6. Lucas Erceg, 3B
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 5/1/1995 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Carolina Mudcats, AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox
2017 Stats: .259/.310/.421, 549 PA, 15 HR, 2 SB, 36/96 BB/K
Info: Non-baseball reasons led to Erceg leaving Cal for small-school Menlo, so when he put up enormous numbers at Menlo, many debated whether the numbers were real and his true draft value was in debate. The Milwaukee Brewers were very pleased to get im in the 2nd round.
After an impressive pro debut, Erceg struggled in 2017 in his first full season, pushed up to high-A. Seemingly everything took a step back in 2017, but more than anything, he simply couldn’t hold onto the good moments and continually fell into long slumps.
Defensively, Erceg is a premier third sacker. He has tremendous quick feet and good hands at the position, with an arm that could be graded as a 70 or higher due to its strength, allowing him to make any throw he needs at the position.
With the bat, Erceg has a bright future. His raw power is impressive, with incredible power to his pull side but an ability to put powerful contact on the ball throughout the field. He is able to make consistent contact, and while he seemed to get by a bit of a BABIP bugaboo in 2017, he still did not chase heavily with swing and miss.
The biggest growth area for Erceg is simply patience. He often presses to make things happen rather than letting the game come to him, and that shows up in his plate discipline. If he can begin to take pitches to the point of a 10% walk rate, he could rocket up the system, and with Travis Shaw first-time arbitration eligible after 2018, he could claim a spot for himself with a big season in the upper minors for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2018.
5. Brett Phillips, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 5/30/1994 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox, MLB Milwaukee Brewers
2017 Stats: Minors: .305/.377/.567, 432 PA, 19 HR, 9 SB, 45/129 BB/K; Majors: .276/.351/.448, 98 PA, 4 HR, 5 SB, 9/34 BB/K
Info: Owner of one of the most legendary laughs in the minor leagues, Phillips had little to laugh about in 2016 in a rough season in AA. The Milwaukee Brewers stuck by him and bumped him up to AAA, and he responded about as well as could be expected.
Phillips is an exciting player on the field, both with the bat and in the outfield
Phillips is an exciting player on the field, both with the bat and in the outfield. He is a dynamic athlete, with power and speed to his game, though his swing can get long at times, leading to fairly high strikeout numbers. Phillips has speed that’s just above-average, but he’s extremely smart on the bases and in the field with how he uses that speed, making it appear more like plus speed.
Defensively, Phillips is able to handle any outfield position well, with the instincts and range to handle center field but the arm to handle right field. In fact, that arm is one of the best in all of baseball, setting a record when he threw a 104 MPH strike to the plate in September, the highest velocity ever recorded by Statcast.
With the new acquisitions in the outfield, there appears no place for Phillips, though he’d likely bring the most back in trade if the Milwaukee Brewers were to make him available. He will compete for a bench spot in 2018 and then spend time in AAA if he does not win a bench role.
Next: #3 and #4
4. Luis Ortiz, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 9/22/1995 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: AA Biloxi Shuckers
2017 Stats: 22 G, 20 GS, 94 1/3 IP, 4.01 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 9.4% BB, 20.2% K
Info: A well-built righty from California, Ortiz was drafted by the Texas Rangers in the 1st round in 2014. He had just started working toward the upper minors when the Rangers traded him to the Milwaukee Brewers as part of the Jonathan Lucroy trade.
When he’s on the hill, Ortiz has some of the better raw stuff in the system
In spite of just over 60 innings at AA in 2016, the Brewers chose to have Ortiz spend the entire season at AA in 2017. One reason was to work on his conditioning, and some blamed excess weight for an early injury that had him miss a few starts.
When he’s on the hill, Ortiz has some of the better raw stuff in the system. He works with his fastball in the mid-90s and can maintain that velocity deep into games. His slider looks just like the fastball out of hand until its hard, late break, getting him weak contact or swing and miss.
His change has ticked up to average, but really needs him to consistently be on the hill to develop a feel for sequencing it in order to see it tick up any further. Though his delivery has become more stable and his control has followed suit, he’s still yet to clear 100 innings in a single season.
Ortiz has the upside of a #2 type of starter if he could keep himself on the mound. The Milwaukee Brewers will most likely challenge him with AAA Colorado Springs to open 2018.
3. Brandon Woodruff, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 2/10/1993 (25)
2017 teams/levels played for: Arizona Rookie League Brewers, AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox, MLB Milwaukee Brewers
2017 Stats: Minors: 17 GS, 77 1/3 IP, 4.31 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 7.8% BB, 21.5% K; Majors: 8 GS, 43 IP, 4.81 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.6% BB, 17.4% K
Info: Woodruff was originally and 11th round selection by the Milwaukee Brewers in 2014 out of Mississippi State as a guy who had a solid arm but who had not shown much in college, and finally the Brewers saw a breakthrough of that stuff in 2016 when Woodruff led the minor leagues in strikeouts.
Woodruff struggled through injury in 2017 as he worked between AAA and the majors, keeping him from showing his best stuff. That “best stuff” is keyed by a hard, heavy sinker that comes in at 93-95 and that he can control very well.
He has a fringe-plus slider that he pairs with the sinker to generate a ton of ground balls and swing and miss, and his change is an average pitch, though he does not get sink on the pitch, so it does not have similar movement to his fastball, which can make it easier to pick up than he’d like.
On the mound, Woodruff is extremely confident and draws comments like “bulldog” and “killer” for his attitude with the ball in hand. He will need that confidence as he takes a spot in the Milwaukee Brewers rotation in 2018.
Next: #1 and #2
2. Keston Hiura, 2B
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/2/1996 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: Arizona Rookie League Brewers, low-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers
2017 Stats: .371/.422/.611, 187 PA, 4 HR, 2 SB, 13/37 BB/K
Info: Considered by many to have the best college bat in the entire 2017 draft, Hiura was the third college hitter in a row selected when he went #9 overall to the Milwaukee Brewers, signing for below slot due to the fact that he had a partial tear in his throwing elbow that prevented him from playing in the field in his draft season at all.
He didn’t need to throw the ball to show the Brewers that he would have plenty of value as he hit .442 in college and just kept hitting in his pro debut. However, in fall instructs, Hiura not only was able to throw, but showed well at second base. Though he’ll likely never win a gold glove there, he does have good hands and feel around the bag that should allow him to handle the keystone well.
At the plate, Hiura is an exceptional talent to behold. His swing has unique power and control due to his strong wrists and body control within his swing. This allows Hiura to drive the ball throughout the field with authority, and some evaluators believe that he could end up being a high-average guy with 30-40 doubles and 20 home runs but that to “sell out for power” could cost his average and field-covering power.
Comparisons for Hiura often come back to Washington’s Daniel Murphy, and the Milwaukee Brewers would be overjoyed if he was able to replicate Murphy’s success. He very well could end up opening 2018 as high as AA with a good spring showing.
1. Corbin Burnes, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 10/22/1994 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Carolina Mudcats, AA Biloxi Shuckers
2017 Stats: 26 GS, 145 2/3 IP, 1.87 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 6.4% BB, 25% K
Info: In the list linked above from last year, one of my biggest regrets was not highlighting Burnes as the newcomer of note. I chose Erceg due to his big performance, but when I was getting information on California players for the 2016 draft, I’d ask about a few players and then ask if there were guys I needed to know. I’ve never had such a unified response from a region of multiple different scouts all saying positive things about the same guy when I asked that last question, and the guy they all brought up was Burnes.
Burnes made a couple of adjustments to simplify his delivery while also going to a traditional windup
After a big college career at St. Mary’s, due to the small-school nature of his competition, Burnes fell to the 4th round to the Milwaukee Brewers, and he’s now on the doorstep of the major leagues and one of the best prospects in all of baseball, showing just how much that competition level meant.
Burnes made a couple of adjustments to simplify his delivery while also going to a traditional windup. This allowed him to pound the zone with his fastball that runs 92-95 with natural wiggle and cut. His curve is his best secondary pitch, and could play up even more as he works more out of the windup, perhaps giving him a second plus pitch. His slider and change are both average, but play up significantly due to his ability to manipulate all of his pitches for additional looks and to control.
The 2018 season looks to be a competitive one for the Milwaukee Brewers, and Burnes could find his way making starts in a playoff race during the season at some point, though he will open the year in AAA.
Next: Newcomer to watch
2017 Acquisition: Tristen Lutz, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/22/1998 (19)
2017 teams/levels played for: Arizona Rookie League Brewers, advanced rookie Helena Brewers
2017 Stats: .311/.398/.559, 187 PA, 9 HR, 3 SB, 16/42 BB/K
Info: Lutz had some of the most impressive raw power in the 2017 draft coming out of high school in Texas. He’s an impressive athlete, though he was a definite right field profile who is already built like a pro before he became a pro at 6’3″ and 215-225 pounds.
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The Milwaukee Brewers were surprised to see Lutz on the board still in the second round and used every last dollar they had in their signing bonus pool in order to keep Lutz from a commitment to Texas.
Lutz has incredible bat speed and power and still has excellent strike zone judgement, being patient for the pitches he can handle with power. He’s also able to show well on the base paths with above-average speed now and surprising instincts.
Lutz’s baseball smarts allowed him to be able to utilize his above average speed to its peak on defense and play center field at an above-average level, utilizing his plus arm well. He could move to right field and be a very good defender there, though the Brewers likely will keep him in center as long as he’s not a liability there.
Lutz will be ready for a full season in the Midwest League in 2018, though a big year could have him finishing the year in high-A.
Next: CTTP's Top 150 prospects
So that is the Milwaukee Brewers top 10 prospects for 2018. Who is too high? Too low? Missing entirely from the list? Comment below!!