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MLB: The five least predictable hitters for 2018

By Bobby Mueller

TAMPA, FL - FEBRUARY 23: Giancarlo Stanton
TAMPA, FL - FEBRUARY 23: Giancarlo Stanton /
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MLB: Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees

  • 607 PA, .275/.367/.622, .989 OPS—Average of all sources
  • 630 PA, .281/.375/.648, 1.034 OPS—Best projection (Fangraphs DC)
  • 623 PA, .263/.352/.559, .911 OPS—Worst projection (Davenport)

The big slugger who made his way from Miami to New York in the offseason is projected to be very good again in 2018, but the very good projected by the Fangraphs Depth Charts is quite a bit better than the very good projected by Clay Davenport. The high and low projections for Stanton have a difference of over a 100 points of OPS, with much of that difference coming in slugging percentage.

Stanton slugged a career-high .631 last year. The Fangraphs Depth Chart adjusted projection has him setting a new career high with a .648 slugging percentage this year. Clay Davenport’s projected slugging percentage of .559 pales in comparison, but would still be one of the best in baseball. It should be pointed out that Stanton only slugged .489 in 2016. He was sidelined with a groin injury in August that year that ultimately ended his season.

Looking at all seven projections reveals that Clay Davenport and Marcels have similar projected rate stats (.911 OPS for Davenport, .912 for Marcels). The Fangraphs Depth Charts, Steamer, ZiPS, and BAT are all very much in agreement, projecting Stanton to have an OPS in the 1.030 range. Right in the middle is ATC, planning Stanton to have a .975 OPS.

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