MLB: The five least predictable hitters for 2018
MLB: Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics
- 554 PA, .235/.330/.478, .808 OPS—Average of all sources
- 311 PA, .257/.347/.540, .887 OPS—Best projection (Marcels)
- 618 PA, .218/.312/.441, .753 OPS—Worst projection (BAT)
On a per plate appearances basis, the best home run hitter in baseball last year was not Giancarlo Stanton or Aaron Judge. It wasn’t veteran Nelson Cruz or newcomers Cody Bellinger or Rhys Hoskins. It wasn’t 45-homer man J.D. Martinez or 43-homer man Khris Davis. The best home run hitter in baseball on a per plate appearances basis was Davis’ teammate with the Oakland A’s, Matt Olson.
Olson came up from the minor leagues and started crushing dingers like Sarah Hyland crushes tacos. Olson only played 59 MLB games last year, but still hit 24 home runs in less than half a season. He led baseball in home runs per plate appearance and home runs per fly ball for players with 200 or more plate appearances.
The difference between the most optimistic projection and the least optimistic projection for Olson is 134 points of OPS, the most substantial difference of any of these players. Marcels loves him, projecting a .257/.347/.540 batting line, albeit in just 311 plate appearances. Derek Carty’s THE BAT projection is lukewarm–.218/.312/.441. Overall, the seven sources averaged together see Olson crushing 30 homers, which is about three days worth of tacos for Sarah Hyland.