Comparing the Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish deals

Former Cubs’ ace Jake Arrieta finally found a home for 2018 and beyond with Philadelphia last week. The two shared many suitors throughout the offseason, but which team ended up with a better deal for the comparable starters?

Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish were something of foes in this fast MLB offseason. Everything from age, durability and expected value were similar at the conclusion of the 2017 postseason. Darvish and Arrieta ended up with good deals. Darvish is signed to a five-year $126 million contract with the Chicago Cubs.

Jake Arrieta landed a deal for three-years and $75 million. But both pitchers did carry red flags into the offseason. So before either pitcher even throw a single regular season pitch for their new clubs, which deal looks better for the teams?

Chicago Cubs acted faster

The Chicago Cubs pulled the trigger on Yu Darvish in early February. Some reports suggested that before making the deal, they made a last-ditch offer to Jake Arrieta. Whether or not that’s true, it’s not much of a stretch to think the Cubs could’ve acquired Arrieta for a similar price to what the Phillies agreed to had they waited out the market.

But the Cubs went with Darvish, who is guaranteed more years and more money than what the Phillies are giving Arrieta. Whether or not Darvish is worth more is still to be seen.

Fewer red flags with Yu Darvish

The biggest concern most teams probably had with Darvish was his atrocious work in the World Series. In his two starts, Darvish posted an ERA of 21.60 and only pitched 3.1 innings between the two games. However, Darvish’s World Series struggles might be an easy and quick fix.

After the World Series, an anonymous Astros player reported that Darvish was tipping pitches. If that’s the case, his World Series appearances shouldn’t mean much to his future ability. After all, in his previous two postseason starts he posted ERAs of 1.80 and 1.42 respectively.

Jake Arrieta is being paid less than Yu Darvish, but still has high expectations

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With less money comes humbler expectations. Arrieta isn’t being paid to play like he did in the latter half of 2015. He posted an ERA of just 0.75 in 107.1 innings that half-season. He may be their de facto ace in 2018, but he isn’t quite being paid for that.

But Arrieta is still being paid to play very well. If he’s even comparable to what Darvish gives the Cubs over the next three years, it might look like the Cubs pulled the trigger too quickly this offseason. That’s a big if, however, because Arrieta’s red flags may not be as forgivable as Darvish’s seem to be.

From 2016 to 2017, Arrieta’s fastball dropped from 93.7 to 91.1. That was an MLB highest loss in velocity of 2.6 MPH. It could have been a result of his shortened offseason and therefore an altered offseason training regime, but rarely does a decline in velocity spell good things for a pitcher.

Next: Brewers need starting pitching to take the NL Central

Both the Phillies and Cubs have signed top-tier pitchers heading into the 2018 season. And it’s hard to judge whose deal was better until the games have been played, but one club will likely envy the other’s when all is said and done.