The Atlanta Braves should lock Ozzie Albies into young core

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Most of the hype from Atlanta Braves spring training this year ha,s centered around the young phenom, Ronald Acuna. However, many are overlooking the other young stud on Atlanta’s roster, Ozzie Albies.

The Atlanta Braves called Albies up in August and he put up two wins above replacement according to Fangraphs in just 244 plate appearances. By most dollar per WAR estimates Albies was worth around $15 million in less than half a season last year. He hit 12% better than league average, was an excellent base-runner, and played plus defense at second base. Oh and he was only 20-years-old and the youngest player in the league.

Historical Context

The List of players since integration who performed better offensively than Albies in their age 20 season is not long, and it is filled with Hall of Famers such as Mickey Mantle, Frank Robinson, and Ken Griffey Jr., as well as current superstars like Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Carlos Correa. Albies had an even better 20-year-old offensive season than the likes of Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera, and Hank Aaron.

Looking at his overall body of work, Albies just completed the 33rd best age 20 season since integration, while only having roughly half the plate appearances of everyone in front of him. This is impressive stuff from a guy listed at a generous 5’9″ and 160 lbs. Albies is the kind of player that develops into a superstar. A team like the Atlanta Braves needs to lock up these special players early before their earning power escalates.

Early Career Extensions

Extensions for players with as little service time as Albies are rare, but there are precedents. In 2008, the Rays locked up a young Evan Longoria after only six games in the majors. That deal was for six years and $17 and a half million. The deal included three option years that bumped up the total price to $44 million over nine years.

All Longoria did in those nine years was produce over 47 wins above replacement valued at roughly $329 million. That’s $285 million in surplus value! An Albies extension might not end up being that beneficial for the Braves, but it definitely could have tremendous upside.

So what would an Albies extension look like? The Longoria deal isn’t a great barometer as it happened a decade ago before players really understood the costs of these early career extensions. These deals are still usually very beneficial for the teams, but it’s going to cost a lot more than $17 million in today’s world to get it done. Luckily there are a couple of recent examples that could help lay the groundwork for an Albies extension.

Precedents

Before the 2017 season, the Chicago White Sox inked a deal with young shortstop, Tim Anderson, which set a record for the largest extension ever given to a player with less than one year of service time. That deal guaranteed Anderson $25 million over six years which could potentially reach $50 million if his two option years are picked up.

That record lasted about a calendar year until earlier this month when Paul DeJong signed a pact with the St. Louis Cardinals for $26 million over six years. DeJong’s deal also includes two option years that could stretch the amount over $50 million. Both players were coming off of very successful rookie campaigns when they signed their extensions, but neither were as exciting as Ozzie Albies.

Albies is several years younger than either Anderson and DeJong were when they signed their deals. He is also a better player and was a more highly regarded prospect. While, both DeJong and Anderson were shortstops, a more valuable position than Albies’ second base, Albies has spent his entire career playing shortstop and only moved to second in 2016 in deference to Dansby Swanson. This could mean that Albies’ representation might enter any negotiations treating him as a shortstop rather than a second baseman.

The Deal

It looks like an extension for Albies at this point would have to set a record, and the Braves should be just fine with that. The Braves could realistically offer Albies something like six years and $30 million with a couple of option years on the back-end valued at around $15 million apiece. A deal framed along these lines should be close to what it would take to get it done. The Braves should look to get this done before the 2018 season as well because the price has historically gone up once the player has eclipsed the one year of service time threshold.

Good for both Sides

The Atlanta Braves have every reason to want to lock Albies into the Braves infield long-term. Of course, Albies and his representatives would also have to be interested in such a deal. Most of the benefits of these early career extensions go to the team. However, there are some benefits for the player as well.

Ozzie Albies signed with the Atlanta Braves in 2013 as a 16-year-old out of Curaçao without a lot of fanfare. He signed for only $350,000 that year and since then has just made peanuts as a minor league baseball player. A deal of this magnitude would essentially set Albies up for life, never having to worry about money again.

More from Call to the Pen

Many players that have received significant signing bonuses in the draft or the international market are willing to bet on themselves and go year to year through the arbitration process to hit free agency as soon as possible. This is the best way to maximize your earning potential while in the big leagues.

However, it’s a risky strategy as injuries, and poor performances are always possible and can cripple a player’s earning power. Since Albies is not one of those players, he may be more inclined to cash in now rather than take any risks with his financial future.

By locking up Albies for the foreseeable future, the Braves would be giving themselves a level of cost certainty for the next several years that carries a certain amount of value. However, the excess value that a contract like this could provide would be the real prize here for the Braves.

Pecota projects Ozzie Albies to be worth roughly four wins above replacement per year over the next eight years. If that turns out to be close to accurate, Albies will be worth around $250 million during that span.

Oh, and did I mention he’s a switch hitter?

Next: Let's Compare Ronald Acuna to Mike Trout

Assuming that something resembling six years and $30 million with two option years worth roughly $15 million apiece gets it done, the Atlanta Braves could be looking at something like $190 million in excess value over the life of the contract. It seems like a no-brainer that the Braves should do everything that they can to lock up this young star as soon as possible.

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