Chicago Cubs have faith in Kyle Schwarber and you should too

Kyle Schwarber of the Chicago Cubs is lighting the world on fire this spring. Is he for real? Or is he up and down guy his major league career numbers suggest he is?

With a .211 batting average, a .315 on-base percentage and just a 102 wRC+ (meaning only 2 percent better than league average) in 2018, you might be asking why the Chicago Cubs have faith in Kyle Schwarber? As is often the case, a quick look at a season-long slash line doesn’t tell the whole story. With Schwarber it is imperative that we dig deeper to gain a full understanding of what happened last year.

Because I gotta have faith…

Schwarber has a .385/.489/.744 line with three home runs, three doubles, and a triple. He is mashing the ball this spring. With that comes all of the accolades that routinely fill our news feeds this time of year. “Best shape of his life!” “Retooled his swing!” “Rededicated himself to…” Blah, blah, blah. We’ve heard it all before, so why should we buy into it this time?

Well, for one it’s plainly evident to anyone with eyes that he is genuinely in fantastic shape. Especially compared to last season. Here he is in October of last year:

And here he is this spring:

He apparently put in plenty of time at the gym, which is going to go a long way toward keeping his knee from bothering him. Speaking of that knee, it’s a significant part of the story here. He suffered an entirely torn ACL and LCL as well as a severely sprained ankle during an outfield collision on April 7, 2016. It forced him to miss the entire season.

When he returned to start the 2017 campaign, he floundered at the plate, posting a .171/.295/.379 line with 12 home runs. That was good for just a 77 wRC+. He was mostly awful. There’s no sugar coating it. But he was recovering from a catastrophic knee injury and hadn’t played in a full year. So let’s go back try to lay out the whole story.

Early Career:

While no one had Schwarber going as high as 4th overall, he was a consensus first-round talent. The Cubs saw something that no one else did and pulled the trigger early, and Schwarber did not disappoint in his first pro season.

He spent the bulk of the 2014 season between A and high-A with 197 and 166 wRC+’s respectively, mashing 14 home runs between the two stops in just 67 games. In 2015 it was 188 and 173 over 75 games between AA and AAA, clubbing 16 home runs before forcing a promotion. He went .246/.355/.487 over the final 69 games of the season with 16 home runs and a 131 wRC+.

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All indications were that the bat was for real. His 28.2% strikeout rate was a concern, but it didn’t appear to be getting in the way of his ability to produce overall. A healthy OBP and massive power will take you a long way in today’s game. Then came the knee injury, derailing his young career.

Post Injury:

We’ve noted the early season struggles from 2017. He was so bad he got demoted after his June 21 game. So what followed Schwarber hitting rock bottom as a baseball player?

He returned to major league action on July 6 and from that point forward looked very much like the hitter who made Cubs fans salivate in 2015. Schwarber hit .255/.338/.565 the rest of the way with 18 home runs over 65 games. His wRC+ in that span? 131.

While his full-season line is less than spectacular, it’s entirely reasonable to write off the early season slump as part of his recovery. He’ll never win a batting title, but Kyle Schwarber can rake, and Cubs fans appear to be in for a heck of a season from the young slugger.

Even with the difficulties and brief demotion last year he hit 30 home runs. Don’t be surprised to see more than that in 2018 with a wRC+ to match his early success in 2015 and his post-demotion run from last season.

Next: How thin is the ice of Red Sox bullpen?

Buckle up, Wrigley. It’s going to be a fun ride.

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