With Opening Day bearing down on us many questions remain for the Boston Red Sox. Chief among them may be whether the rotation is ready to carry the team to a third straight division title.
“That’s the first day I’ve really gotten after it. I threw a bullpen the other day where I was just kind of moving. Today I actually started firing them in there. I felt great. I felt normal.”
This isn’t the first time Pomeranz has left a spring training start with an arm issue. In fact, as Jason Mastrodonato pointed out on March 2, despite leaving a number of starts with arm tightness last year, he has been pretty durable:
Pomeranz early exits: Today: Forearm tightness Last March: Triceps tightness Last May: Triceps tightness Last August: Back spasms Also seems to have left a start from Aug 2015 with A's due to forearm tightness, didn't miss any time. Been fairly durable despite concerns.
Rodriguez underwent a significant knee surgery in October to address the recurring kneecap dislocations (patellar subluxations) that were plaguing him. The medial patellofemoral ligament (MPFL) runs laterally from the front of the knee to the back and helps keep the kneecap stable through its range of motion. Athletes with patellar subluxations often damage this ligament leading to issues much like what Rodriguez has suffered. The surgery he underwent was designed to stabilize the kneecap.
“In terms of results, the odds are in Rodriguez’ favor for a full return with a stable knee. A recent meta-analysis (a group of studies whose results are pooled together) looking at results of MPFL reconstruction surgeries from the American Journal of Sports Medicine showed very favorable results, with 84.1 percent of patients returning to their sports and with recurrent instability being very low, at 1.2 percent.”
For his part, Rodriguez is making excellent progress and is reported to be well ahead of schedule for his initial ETA. He may not be ready for opening day, but we should see him taking the mound sometime in April.
Wright is also recovering from knee surgery, but Alex Corahasn’t entirely closed the door on him being ready for April 2nd, the first time the team would need a fifth starter. The 33-year-old knuckleballer had an outstanding 2016 campaign before being shut down due to a shoulder injury suffered while pinch running, and appeared in only five games in 2017.
Lingering Concerns for the Red Sox:
David Price spent most of the 2017 season battling an elbow issue and was eventually relegated to bullpen duty down the stretch and in the playoffs. He looked good in his spring debut allowing only one hit, one walk and striking out 5 through 55 pitches. Coming off of an injury plagued 2017 which followed a 2016 season in which his results were less than stellar, most in Red Sox Nation is still waiting for the big lefty to live up to the hype that swept him into town with a $217M contract.
Finally, while not an injury concern, Rick Porcello’s 2017 season was a massive disappointment following his 2016 Cy Young award. His HR/FB jumped from 9.3% to 14.7%, and his GB% dropped to a career-low 39.2%, good for only 49th among qualified starters.
He also saw a massive jump from 30% hard contact to 38.3% and a 55 point rise in his BABIP. Unfortunately, except for the hard contact percentage and the drop in GB%, most of those were returning to career norms. Even more concerning is the fact that the hard contact percentage rising while the GB% percentage dropped is almost certainly a reciprocal relationship.
Low launch angles that produce ground balls tend to be less productive than balls with higher launch angles. Balls hit between 0 and 10 degrees have a wOBA of .436 while balls hit between 19 and 26 degrees jump to .730, for example. This means that rising fly ball and line drive percentages will carry with them more doubles, triples and home runs. That’s not a good thing for a pitcher with a K/9 comfortably below 8.0 since coming to Fenway.
Three seasons in since Boston traded for him it is looking like the real Rick Porcello is more 2015 than 2016.
FT. MYERS, FL – FEBRUARY 14: David Price /
Is the Red Sox Rotation Depth Sufficient?
Despite the concerns laid out above, there are plenty of reasons to be hopeful. As noted, all three of Rodriguez, Pomeranz, and Wright are making good progress in recovering and should be available early in the year if not for Opening Day.
Price’s elbow hasn’t given him any trouble since before the stretch run last season and he’s looked good in action since returning. And while Porcello And any rotation headed by Chris Sale is already coming off the line with an advantage.
So how does the starting rotation really stack up?
Chris Sale:
Sale’s first season in Boston was, for the most part, a huge success. He had a career-high 12.93 K/9 while tying his career low 1.81 BB/9 leading to the most productive season of his young career.
The only blemish was that he faded down the stretch. This has been a recurring issue for Sale but is something that can be mitigated by new skipper Alex Cora. Working in a post All-Star break rest or two could go a long way toward keeping Sale fresh and dominant right through the end of October.
Drew Pomeranz:
With the concerns about Drew Pomeranz’s forearm being minimal, we can focus instead on his 2017 season. After a breakout 2016, there was concern that the Verducci Effect might rear its ugly head.
While Pomeranz wasn’t young enough to qualify for the list, an increase of 84 and 2/3 innings certainly turned some heads. Thankfully, he was able to match his IP total from 2016 during the 2017 campaign and saw a minimal deviation in his rate stats. His ERA was an identical 3.32 with his FIP being just 0.04 higher than his 2016 figure.
Drew Pomeranz appears to have arrived. As long as this current bout of forearm tightness is as minor as it seems, he will be a significant boon to the rotation.
It feels like Red Sox fans have been waiting for Rodriguez to take his place near the front of the rotation since a head-turning three-game run of dominance to start his major league career. Unfortunately, inconsistency has been his calling card since then.
With the revelation that he was suffering from repeated subluxations of the kneecap and the news that his recovery from surgery is progressing so well, it is time to get excited about EdRo again. He has shown the ability to miss bats at a near elite level sporting an 11.6% swinging strike rate in 2017. That would have been good for 16th in the majors last year had he qualified.
And lest we forget that this will be his age 25 season, if he is healthy, this could be the breakout year we’ve been waiting for since Andrew Miller was traded for him.
FT. MYERS, FL – FEBRUARY 14: David Price /
David Price:
While 2016 appeared to be a disappointing season all around for David Price, when we dig a little deeper it’s not quite that simple. His 8.92 K/9, 1.96 BB/9, 43.7% GB rate and 18.6% soft contact percentage were all in line with his previous season.
Significant differences were in his hard contact percentage jumping from 28.2 percent to 34.8 percent, and HR/FB rose from 7.8 percent to 13.5%. Home run rates can be quite flukey so a jump that high is often a sign of some bad luck.
The hard contact increase came mostly at the expense of his medium contact, meaning he hadn’t lost any soft contact with his 2015 season rate. In fact, his soft contact rate was 1.6% higher than his 2015 figure, and it went up even further in 2017 to 20.7%. So Price hasn’t lost the ability to generate weak contact since signing with the Red Sox.
Furthermore, despite a fairly uninspiring 3.99 ERA in 2016, Price’s 3.60 FIP was still 17th best in the majors. His 3.52 xFIP was 11th, and his K/BB of 4.56 was good for 9th in MLB which is why he still amassed 4.4 fWAR, the 13th highest of any starting pitcher that year. He may not have been an ace on the level of Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer, but he was still outstanding.
Seeing some of the rate stats that troubled him in 2016 normalize in 2017, like his HR/FB and hard contact percentage, is an excellent sign that if he is healthy, he should return to being a very useful pitcher.
FORT MYERS, FL – FEBRUARY 24: Rick Porcello /
Rick Porcello:
Rick Porcello’s 2017 campaign inspires little hope of a return to his 2016 form, but the middle ground of his 2015 is indeed in reach. In 2015 Porcello’s 4.13 FIP and 3.72 xFIP suggest a more productive season than his 4.92 ERA looked.
And to be frank, he doesn’t need to be much better for this rotation to be one of the best in the game. As it stands, in an entirely healthy rotation, Porcello’s 2017 season would slot in as the 5th starter behind Sale, Price, Pomeranz, and Rodriguez. Getting 203 innings of 2.0 WAR, or about league-average production, out of your 5th starter is a luxury many teams would sell their souls for.
All Porcello has to do is continue being what he is and the rotation should be just fine.
Two of the three depth options for the rotation are out of options, so we may see Brian Johnson and Steven Wright in the pen come April, providing long relief and spot starts as needed. Johnson is doing his best to be first in line for a start should either Pomeranz or Rodriguez not be ready, sporting a 2.45 ERA with eight strikeouts over 11 innings this spring.
Behind them is Hector Velazquez who had a solid debut in 2017 with a 2.92 ERA but a 4.20 xFIP suggesting there is more than a little regression built in. Of course, as the team’s 8th pitcher on the depth chart, that’s still a pretty nice asset to have sitting around in AAA.
The Kids Will Be Alright:
With the injury concerns reportedly being minor the Red Sox rotation depth looks to be in excellent shape. In fact, there aren’t many teams that can boast eight starting pitchers that can match those in the Carmine Hoses.
Houston’s enviable group notwithstanding, this kind of depth should make even the most pessimistic fan breath a sigh of relief. The Red Sox could spend the bulk of the year with a genuine ace and three number two quality starters supported with four capable back of the rotation hurlers.
