Red Sox rotation depth: How thin is that ice?

Lingering Concerns for the Red Sox:

David Price spent most of the 2017 season battling an elbow issue and was eventually relegated to bullpen duty down the stretch and in the playoffs. He looked good in his spring debut allowing only one hit, one walk and striking out 5 through 55 pitches. Coming off of an injury plagued 2017 which followed a 2016 season in which his results were less than stellar, most in Red Sox Nation is still waiting for the big lefty to live up to the hype that swept him into town with a $217M contract.

Finally, while not an injury concern, Rick Porcello’s 2017 season was a massive disappointment following his 2016 Cy Young award. His HR/FB jumped from 9.3% to 14.7%, and his GB% dropped to a career-low 39.2%, good for only 49th among qualified starters.

He also saw a massive jump from 30% hard contact to 38.3% and a 55 point rise in his BABIP. Unfortunately, except for the hard contact percentage and the drop in GB%, most of those were returning to career norms. Even more concerning is the fact that the hard contact percentage rising while the GB% percentage dropped is almost certainly a reciprocal relationship.

Low launch angles that produce ground balls tend to be less productive than balls with higher launch angles. Balls hit between 0 and 10 degrees have a wOBA of .436 while balls hit between 19 and 26 degrees jump to .730, for example. This means that rising fly ball and line drive percentages will carry with them more doubles, triples and home runs. That’s not a good thing for a pitcher with a K/9 comfortably below 8.0 since coming to Fenway.

Three seasons in since Boston traded for him it is looking like the real Rick Porcello is more 2015 than 2016.