David Price:
While 2016 appeared to be a disappointing season all around for David Price, when we dig a little deeper it’s not quite that simple. His 8.92 K/9, 1.96 BB/9, 43.7% GB rate and 18.6% soft contact percentage were all in line with his previous season.
Significant differences were in his hard contact percentage jumping from 28.2 percent to 34.8 percent, and HR/FB rose from 7.8 percent to 13.5%. Home run rates can be quite flukey so a jump that high is often a sign of some bad luck.
The hard contact increase came mostly at the expense of his medium contact, meaning he hadn’t lost any soft contact with his 2015 season rate. In fact, his soft contact rate was 1.6% higher than his 2015 figure, and it went up even further in 2017 to 20.7%. So Price hasn’t lost the ability to generate weak contact since signing with the Red Sox.
Furthermore, despite a fairly uninspiring 3.99 ERA in 2016, Price’s 3.60 FIP was still 17th best in the majors. His 3.52 xFIP was 11th, and his K/BB of 4.56 was good for 9th in MLB which is why he still amassed 4.4 fWAR, the 13th highest of any starting pitcher that year. He may not have been an ace on the level of Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer, but he was still outstanding.
Seeing some of the rate stats that troubled him in 2016 normalize in 2017, like his HR/FB and hard contact percentage, is an excellent sign that if he is healthy, he should return to being a very useful pitcher.