Rick Porcello:
Rick Porcello’s 2017 campaign inspires little hope of a return to his 2016 form, but the middle ground of his 2015 is indeed in reach. In 2015 Porcello’s 4.13 FIP and 3.72 xFIP suggest a more productive season than his 4.92 ERA looked.
And to be frank, he doesn’t need to be much better for this rotation to be one of the best in the game. As it stands, in an entirely healthy rotation, Porcello’s 2017 season would slot in as the 5th starter behind Sale, Price, Pomeranz, and Rodriguez. Getting 203 innings of 2.0 WAR, or about league-average production, out of your 5th starter is a luxury many teams would sell their souls for.
All Porcello has to do is continue being what he is and the rotation should be just fine.
The Depth:
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Two of the three depth options for the rotation are out of options, so we may see Brian Johnson and Steven Wright in the pen come April, providing long relief and spot starts as needed. Johnson is doing his best to be first in line for a start should either Pomeranz or Rodriguez not be ready, sporting a 2.45 ERA with eight strikeouts over 11 innings this spring.
Behind them is Hector Velazquez who had a solid debut in 2017 with a 2.92 ERA but a 4.20 xFIP suggesting there is more than a little regression built in. Of course, as the team’s 8th pitcher on the depth chart, that’s still a pretty nice asset to have sitting around in AAA.
The Kids Will Be Alright:
With the injury concerns reportedly being minor the Red Sox rotation depth looks to be in excellent shape. In fact, there aren’t many teams that can boast eight starting pitchers that can match those in the Carmine Hoses.
Houston’s enviable group notwithstanding, this kind of depth should make even the most pessimistic fan breath a sigh of relief. The Red Sox could spend the bulk of the year with a genuine ace and three number two quality starters supported with four capable back of the rotation hurlers.
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This rotation might be the most significant strength the team has in 2018.