We are one week out from meaningful Atlanta Braves baseball!
That’s the good news. The bad news: well, there isn’t any, really. However, there is some intrigue related to the Atlanta Braves 25 man roster. On the position player side, one narrative since the outset of Spring Training has been the lack of clarity at the third base position.
The Atlanta Braves have had two choices: Rio Ruiz or Johan Camargo. Coming off a monstrous campaign in the Dominican Winter League this year, Camargo seemed primed for a breakout, and likely the 3B job as well.
Indeed, the consensus until very recently was that the 3B job was Johan’s to lose. Baseball, however, doesn’t abide by consensus, as Johan Camargo went down with an oblique injury and now likely won’t be ready for opening day.
Rio Ruiz, the Injury Profiteer?
It’s well known at this point that Johan Camargo’s impressive 2017 performance came screaming out of the blue. Camargo has never had much pedigree and before last year never had even a modest hitting profile. The fact that Camargo was lined up to take the 3B job over Rio Ruiz likely flummoxed many a scout. Rio Ruiz has long had something Camargo hasn’t: prospect pedigree.
Something that has been forgotten by many Braves fans is just how highly touted Rio Ruiz once was. In the 2012 amateur draft, the Houston Astros primarily signed Carlos Correa because they knew he would sign under slot value, enabling Houston also to nab Rio Ruiz.
Yep, Rio Ruiz was more highly thought of than Carlos Correa at the time. Hindsight is 20/20, and performance will always trump pedigree, but I’d like to underline a few things about Rio Ruiz which may have long been forgotten.
Rio Ruiz is just a kid.
Rio Noble Ruiz, born May 22nd of 1994, is 23 years — meaning he’s younger than Dansby Swanson. The problem is that Rio has been around forever. He was drafted in the 4th round with surplus money following the savings on Carlos Correa. So why did the Houston Astros put so much stock into Rio Ruiz and his draft position? Here’s a scouting report snippet from Baseball America in 2012.
Houston loves Ruiz’s pretty swing path, track record of hitting and balance at the plate. He has powerful hands and forearms, producing homers with strength and bat speed. Some club officials project him as a plus-plus hitter with above-average power, though area scouts saw Ruiz as merely solid in both regards.
Plus hit tool, bat speed, and power projection don’t grow on trees. As prospects go, you’re happy to have two out of the three, but you rarely see all three. Rio was also a two-sport athlete in high school, as the school’s starting quarterback who could also throw 95 MPH off the mound. Adding to all of this is Ruiz’s polished and patient approach at the plate, and you can see why he was so highly thought of.
The Atlanta Braves liked him as well, as he was part of the return from Houston in the Evan Gattis trade, headlining the return along with Mike Foltynewicz. The year before this trade, Rio Ruiz put up a 119 wCR+ in High-A for the Astros as a 20-year-old in 2014.
After the Atlanta Braves acquired Ruiz, however, he stumbled through most of his 2015 AA campaign, finishing with a 91 wRC+. It should be noted that Rio Ruiz began to hit quite well near the end of that year, but it wasn’t enough to right the ship overall.
The past two years have seen Ruiz playing in AAA and MLB at ages 22-23. By this point, a bit of prospect fatigue was already developing for Ruiz, even though he was young for both levels. He put up good-not-great performances in AAA with a 118 wRC+ in 2016 and a 112 wRC+ in 2017.
Part of the problem for Ruiz has been the absolute deluge of shiny new toys during the Atlanta rebuild. Ruiz has not gotten the benefit of reps, as he has accumulated only 180 PAs at the MLB level.
The Swing of Things for the Atlanta Braves
Rio Ruiz has done everything possible to acquit himself and earn playing time. Two years running Ruiz has shown up in tremendous shape during the spring, putting to rest any concerns about staying on the dirt going forward. He has also been learning to play first base this year. His makeup and mature approach both at the plate and mentally have never been in question.
What Rio Ruiz has not had, however, are two things. 1) a long enough audition to prove himself and 2) the ability to get the ball off the ground. In 2017 Ruiz ran an abysmal 57.3% groundball rate at the MLB level. Ruiz is also a pull hitter, with 41.1% of his batted balls hit to the pull side. The absolute worst batted balls are pulled grounders. The absolute best-batted balls are pulled fly balls because they become home runs more than other fly balls.
While point #1 above has been beyond Rio’s control, point #2 has not been. Rio apparently became savvy to his batted ball woes and worked at Driveline Baseball over the winter.
His intent? To re-work his swing and get the ball in the air. He addressed this in literally the best way possible: by training with the man who radically changed Justin Turner’s career, Doug Latta.
Under the tutelage of Doug Latta, Justin Turner became the flyball revolution poster child. To quote Fred Owens at sister site Tomahawk Take, “Spurred by the success of Turner and realizing it was now or never with the Braves. Ruiz committed himself to Latte’s approach. Ruiz told O’Brien he believes the adjustments he’s made this offseason “…have him in a good place with his swing.”
Armed with a new swing and the guarantee of at least some playing time to start 2018, Rio Ruiz’s time to shine may be upon us. The talent, the power, and the ability to barrel balls have always been there. Rio is set to show the world that he has figured out how to tap into it all.
