Pittsburgh Pirates: Top 10 Rookie-Eligible Prospects for 2018
We have reached the point of the offseason where prospect lists abound. We continue our top 10 prospects for every team with the Pittsburgh Pirates!
Our team top 10 prospect lists at Call to the Pen are spearheaded by Benjamin Chase. Today, he gives us the top ten prospects for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
This season, we will be going through teams by division, in order of 2017 record. The AL East will be first, followed by the AL Central and AL West. Then the focus will shift to the National League in the same order.
The format will be as it was last season for the same lists, with a system review, which will include last season’s list. The top 10 will follow in reverse order, two players per page in order to give adequate space to each player. Major trades or international signings will lead to an updated top 10!
Finally, don’t go away after #1 is revealed as each list will also contain a player either signed in the 2017 international free agent class or drafted in 2017 that isn’t part of the top 10 and should be tracked. Last season’s mentions in that area made over half of the top 10s this season, so this is a great way to get to know a player who could be making a big splash in the organization.
System overview
As the Pittsburgh Pirates have enjoyed a return to competitiveness over the last few years, they have done so primarily on the strength of excellent development in their farm system. Even now, their projected starting lineup from Roster Resource, 5 of the 8 made their major league debut with the Pirates as well as 3/5 of the rotation.
The Pirates made a pair of significant trades over the offseason that have many assuming that the team is headed toward a period of retooling again, though trading Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole may end up opening spots for the top two prospects in the farm system by the end of 2018, both of whom are highly-regarded prospects.
This isn’t the same level of system that was ranked top 5 multiple times in the 2000s as the team was building up toward competitiveness, but there is plenty of raw talent that will require development but have the upside of an elite prospect.
Let’s take a look at that system….
Next: #9 and #10
10. Lolo Sanchez, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 4/23/1999 (18)
2017 teams/levels played for: Gulf Coast League Pirates
2017 Stats: .284/.359/.417, 234 PA, 4 HR, 14 SB, 21/19 BB/K
Info: Originally signed in 2015 for $450K, Sanchez spent his first stateside season in 2017. His performance may not jump off the statline based on raw stats, but when you consider that he was among the league’s leaders in nearly every offensive statistic while also walking more than he struck out, it’s an incredibly impressive season.
Sanchez’s pitch and zone recognition is incredibly advanced, which allows all the rest of his offensive skills to play up
Sanchez’s pitch and zone recognition is incredibly advanced, which allows all the rest of his offensive skills to play up. While he is likely going to only project to average power, he will be able to play that up, especially with doubles and triples.
Defensively, Sanchez is a special centerfielder, already with fringe-plus instincts in center field with an above-average arm. On top of those instincts, Sanchez has double-plus speed that allows him to fly to the ball, and he uses his speed extremely well on the bases.
Sanchez has a high ceiling, feasibly as high as any position player in the Pirates system and as high as has been in the Pittsburgh Pirates system in many years. He’ll likely open the season in extended spring, but if he shows he’s ready, it would not surprise if he heads to full-season ball once he’s sent out from extended spring.
9. Bryan Reynolds, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 1/27/1995 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A San Jose Giants
2017 Stats: .312/.364/.462, 540 PA, 10 HR, 5 SB, 37/106 BB/K
Info: After an impressive career with Vanderbilt, many assumed Reynolds would be a first-round selection, but he fell to the Giants in the second round due to some polish still needed in his game and a lack of a true plus skill in his balanced skill set.
Reynolds has a balanced, level swing from both sides of the plate, which allows him to create plenty of contact, but also limits the amount of power he is able to generate, in spite of showing fringe-plus power in the cage when he reaches back and cultivates his swing for big hits.
He’s an average armed outfielder, but has above-average range in a corner and would be able to move quickly if he moved to a corner. If he was able to get into his power swing, he’d also move quickly as well, but even then there’s question as to exactly how much upside there would be.
Reynolds will open in AA in his first season in the Pittsburgh Pirates system, and he could reach the majors quickly, though he is likely to be a guy who plays a long time as a fringe-starter or very good 4th outfielder.
Next: #7 and #8
8. Nick Kingham, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 11/8/1991 (26)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Bradenton Marauders, AAA Indianapolis Indians
2017 Stats: 21 G, 20 GS, 118 1/3 IP, 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 5.8% BB, 18.7% K
Info: Originally drafted in 2010 in the 4th round out of high school, Kingham from day one had the raw size and stuff, but he’s struggled to advance up the system due to injury, including Tommy John surgery in 2015 that wiped out his 2016 completely.
He was just getting back on the mound last spring when an ankle injury hampered him until May, keeping him to a less-than-full season yet again, but he showed his stuff was back to the point of being a solid mid-rotation starter. Kingham leads off that stuff with a with a fastball that sits 91-93 but gets excellent plane and late wiggle from his 6’6″ frame and tall delivery.
In his secondary stuff, Kingham features a hard curve that sits average but can flash fringe-plus at times and works well due to his ability to locate it. His change is above-average, flashing plus due to his excellent sinking movement on the pitch and arm deception on the pitch.
Locating all of his stuff has been one of the hallmarks of Kingham in his career, and typically, that’s one of the last things to return after TJS, so to show it so well in his first season back in 2017 was an extremely positive sign. He’s likely headed back to AAA, but his excellent control and steady performance should make him an excellent candidate for a spot start if there is an injury in the Pittsburgh Pirates rotation.
7. Luis Escobar, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 5/30/1996 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A West Virginia Power
2017 Stats: 26 G, 25 GS, 131 2/3 IP, 3.83 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 10.7% BB, 29.9% K
Info: Escobar was actually a third baseman when the Pirates signed him for $150K out of Columbia, but they liked his arm enough to push him to the mound full-time, and as he’s added to his frame to the point where he stands 6’2″ and 210 pounds of intimidation on the mound now.
(Escobar has) added to his frame to the point where he stands 6’2″ and 210 pounds of intimidation on the mound now
That intimidation comes from more than just his filled out frame, as he can run his fastball up to 97 MPH, sitting 93-95 with some control issues but also wicked movement on the pitch, adding to its effectiveness in the zone. His best secondary pitch is a late-breaking curve that he gets plus grades on from many scouts and can generate a ton of swing and miss with.
His change could use some work, but when he’s on with his delivery the arm deception he gets on the change is above-average. His delivery has calmed down significantly over the last year, especially as he’s gained more comfort in his additional size in his frame.
Further strides in his command/control at high-A in 2018 could have Escobar on the fast track to the Pittsburgh Pirates rotation, but he has a high floor as a power reliever with his current pitch mix, leaving him as a very useful arm in a system that is surprisingly thin in arms.
Next: #5 and #6
6. Kevin Newman, SS
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/4/1993 (24)
2017 teams/levels played for: AA Altoona Curve, AAA Indianapolis Indians
2017 Stats: .267/.311/.363, 552 PA, 4 HR, 11 SB, 29/62 BB/K
Info: Newman had a high-level reputation for contact when he was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates out of the University of Arizona. He continued hitting once he got into pro ball, leading to very high rankings around the game, projecting other skills to catch up to his contact skills.
The issue is, they simply haven’t. Newman has below-average power in his swing, able to make plenty of contact, but frequently not getting the best bat on the ball. He tallies plenty of extra base hits due to his above-average speed.
Newman is an average defender with good hands that uses his baseball IQ to avoid making mistakes at the position but isn’t going to ever show anything above-average at the position. While Newman is going to AAA, he may find himself slipping on the Pittsburgh Pirates organizational charts at shortstop by the end of the season, though he’s likely going to be a quality average regular or above-average utility infielder as a major leaguer.
5. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 1/28/1997 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Bradenton Marauders
2017 Stats: .278/.345/.363, 482 PA, 2 HR, 27 SB, 41/76 BB/K
Info: Many knew Hayes due to his father, Charlie Hayes, who played over a decade in the major leagues. Coming out of high school in Texas in 2015, the Pittsburgh Pirates made him the 32nd overall selection in the draft.
Ke’Bryan (is) certain plus defender at third with a plus arm
Hayes’ father was well-known because of his defense at the hot corner. Ke’Bryan definitely follows in that line, a certain plus defender at third with a plus arm and some of the best instincts at the position in the game.
Offensively, he has some developing still to do, but the gap power continued to build in 2017 as he worked himself into better shape and his base running was much better in 2017. Hayes’ instincts and high baseball IQ allows him to play up his above-average speed to very good results on the bases.
Hayes is still building strength, but his build is probably going to max him out at a guy who hits 15-20 home runs at his peak, but that could still be very valuable with his defensive upside. He should open 2018 at AA, and if Colin Moran struggles in 2018, it would not be surprising to see Hayes open 2019 as the Pittsburgh Pirates starting 3B.
Next: #3 and #4
4. Cole Tucker, SS
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 7/3/1996 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Bradenton Marauders, AA Altoona Curve
2017 Stats: .275/.358/.408, 510 PA, 6 HR, 47 SB, 55/101 BB/K
Info: Tucker really has not been healthy since being the Pittsburgh Pirates’ first round selection in the 2014 draft. Dealing with injuries has become such second nature for Tucker that he played much of 2017 with a broken thumb, yet still put up absolutely blistering numbers.
Tucker (…) played much of 2017 with a broken thumb, yet still put up absolutely blistering numbers
Tucker has long been in the shadow of fellow shortstop Newman, a level behind him along the developmental path, but his raw tools have always been louder, and 2017 saw Tucker start to unleash some of those tools, specifically his double plus speed, which is made even more impressive because he takes huge strides that belie his true speed, making him look like he’s not moving that fast as he motors from first to home on a long single.
As his arm has healed, Tucker’s defense has begun to show the above average to plus projection he had tagged on him as an amateur, flashing excellent range and the arm to accompany that range once he gobbles the ball up.
At the plate, he has impressive gap power now, with very good bat control. He still needs to work on his zone recognition, and he doesn’t show a ton of over-the-fence power, but with his speed and ability to smack the ball to the gaps, he’ll put himself into scoring position frequently.
Tucker should start the season in AA, but it would not surprise if he’s going to etch his name at the top of the “shortstop of the future” board in the Pittsburgh Pirates offices by the end of the season, which could be important with Jordy Mercer entering his walk season in 2018 and the door open for the starting job in 2019.
3. Shane Baz, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 6/17/1999 (18)
2017 teams/levels played for: Gulf Coast League Pirates
2017 Stats: 10 GS, 23 2/3 IP, 3.80 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 13.3% BB, 18.1% K
Info: Baz was highly recruited as a potential two-way collegiate player at TCU, but the Pittsburgh Pirates took him 12th overall and gave him an over-slot bonus to ensure he signed. Baz had plenty of helium late in the process as a pitcher with multiple pitches that rated plus and an idea of how to manipulate already as a high schooler.
Baz features a plus-plus fastball that sits around 95 with weight and movement that makes it incredibly difficult to square. He knows how to manipulate his fastball to get different movement and was toying with adding and subtracting velocity at points in the game as well.
His secondaries are led by both a curve and a slider, and both flash plus. His change is a work in progress, but it already shows excellent low movement. He has what has been graded as above-average to plus control by scouts.
While he could take a bit of time to develop, Baz has an incredible ceiling, and his feel for pitching is already advanced, which could allow the Pittsburgh Pirates to challenge him with assignments, so it would not surprise if Baz opens 2018 at low-A.
Next: #1 and #2
2. Austin Meadows, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 5/3/1995 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: Gulf Coast League Pirates, short-season A-Ball West Virginia Black Bears, AAA, Indianapolis Indians
2017 Stats: .261/.323/.384, 350 PA, 5 HR, 11 SB, 28/55 BB/K
Info: One of the elite prospects in all of baseball since he was drafted in 2013 by the Pittsburgh Pirates out of high school in Georgia. However, over the last two seasons, injuries have stalled his once-elite status.
Meadows has always shown plus contact ability, but he struggled with consistency with his bat path during 2017, especially around his oblique injury. His pitch recognition has been something the Pirates wanted to see improve throughout his career path.
Meadows is a plus runner, and that allows him to handle all three outfield positions in spite of a fringe-average arm. His speed hasn’t translated perfectly on the bases yet.
With Andrew McCutchen out of Pittsburgh, it would not surprise if the team made a move to trade one or more of their current outfielders midseason, which would open a spot for Meadows. For now, he’ll open the 2018 season in AAA.
1. Mitch Keller, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 4/4/1996 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: short-season A-ball West Virginia Black Bears, high-A Bradenton Marauders, AA Altoona Curve
2017 Stats: 23 GS, 116 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 6.9% BB, 25% K
Info: Selected by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 2nd round of the 2014 draft out of Iowa, Keller quickly blossomed and became one of the top prospects in the Pirates system. He’s moved up to one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball.
(Keller) moved up to one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball
After filling into his 6’3″ frame, Keller has seen his stuff tick up to sitting 95 with impressive life, touching 99 and even a few radars ranging into triple digits. The fastball is paired with a big, looping curve that seems to dive straight for the dirt when it makes its break.
He has worked on his change over his pro time, and that was a focus of his time at the Arizona Fall League. Many worry about his velocity on the pitch, as it ranges 88-90, but he was showing very good arm deception and getting excellent movement in Arizona.
Keller will open the season at AA, and he could eventually head the Pittsburgh Pirates rotation someday.
Next: Newcomers to watch
2017 Acquisitions: Calvin Mitchell and Conner Uselton, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): Mitchell: 3/8/1999 (19), Uselton: 5/20/1998 (19)
2017 teams/levels played for: Mitchell: Gulf Coast League Pirates, Uselton: Gulf Coast League Pirates
2017 Stats: Mitchell: .245/.351/.352, 185 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, 24/35 BB/K; Uselton: .429/.429/.571, 7 PA, 0/1 BB/K
Info: The Pittsburgh Pirate grabbed two great high school outfielders in the 2nd round of the 2017 draft, so it was hard to pick just one of them.
Mitchell was the 50th overall pick, going in the 2nd round to the Pirates after he was an elite talent coming into his senior year before having a rough final high school season. He finished on a tear, just like he did with his time in the GCL.
Mitchell has plus raw power and a quick bat that should be able allow him to hit for power and average. He does have below-average speed, which will keep him in a corner, but he has enough arm to handle a corner outfield spot long-term. He should open 2018 at low-A.
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With the 72nd overall pick, the Pittsburgh Pirates selected Oklahoma high school product Uselton, who was an impressive pitcher and outfielder in high school.
Uselton ended up with an injury after his second game at the GCL and missed the rest of the season, but Pirates officials were still very excited with what they saw from him once he was in camp.
Uselton has a swing that has a lot of movement going on, but he has been able to have success to this point, though he’ll likely struggle with his first long-term exposure with pro breaking stuff and top-end velocity.
Defensively, Uselton has an impressive arm in the outfield, and he could work in center field right away with above-average speed. While he’s more raw than Mitchell on the field, he has more ceiling as well. He’ll likely open 2018 in extended spring and probably the New York-Penn League.
Next: CTTP's Top 150 prospects
So that is the Pittsburgh Pirates top 10 prospects for 2018. Who is too high? Too low? Missing entirely from the list? Comment below!!