Cincinnati Reds: Top 10 Rookie-Eligible Prospects for 2018
We have reached the point of the offseason where prospect lists abound. We continue our top 10 prospects for every team with the Cincinnati Reds!
Our team top 10 prospect lists at Call to the Pen are spearheaded by Benjamin Chase. Today, he gives us the top ten prospects for the Cincinnati Reds.
This season, we will be going through teams by division, in order of 2017 record. The AL East will be first, followed by the AL Central and AL West. Then the focus will shift to the National League in the same order.
The format will be as it was last season for the same lists, with a system review, which will include last season’s list. The top 10 will follow in reverse order, two players per page in order to give adequate space to each player. Major trades or international signings will lead to an updated top 10!
Finally, don’t go away after #1 is revealed as each list will also contain a player either signed in the 2017 international free agent class or drafted in 2017 that isn’t part of the top 10 and should be tracked. Last season’s mentions in that area made over half of the top 10s this season, so this is a great way to get to know a player who could be making a big splash in the organization.
System overview
After back to back playoff appearances in 2012-2013, the Cincinnati Reds dove to 4th in the NL Central in 2014 and ended up choosing to buy in to a rebuild, trading off pieces of their previous playoff teams, losing 98, 94, and 94 games in the last three seasons.
The Reds have begun to start seeing the fruits of their rebuild, with excellent pitching showing up in 2017 and more of their top prospects likely to hit the majors in the next year.
One of the things the Cincinnati Reds have done very well is approach the Cuban market, and they continued to do that in 2017, making multiple seasons in a row that the Reds have added a high-impact Cuban player to their farm system.
Let’s take a look at that system….
Next: #9 and #10
10. Jeter Downs, SS
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 7/27/1998 (19)
2017 teams/levels played for: advanced rookie Billings Mustangs
2017 Stats: .267/.370/.424, 209 PA, 6 HR, 8 SB, 27/32 BB/K
Info: A very athletic shortstop from the Miami area, the Cincinnati Reds drafted Downs in the 2nd round this past June. Downs had some helium during the summer as a late first round selection, and he lasted just a few picks into the 2nd round before the Reds nabbed him.
Downs has a very impressive bat with a chance to have a double-plus contact tool
Jeter is named after former Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter, and his father played professionally in Columbia. He has a brother, Jerry Downs, who has been playing first base professionally as well, so baseball is fairly in his blood.
He showed natural instincts at shortstop being moved all the way up to advanced rookie in his draft season with good hands and good instincts at short with enough arm to handle short, though certainly not a plus arm by any means.
Downs has a very impressive bat with a chance to have a double-plus contact tool along with above average raw power. He shows an impressive eye already at the plate, and his base running instincts are sharp, which should allow him to be a guy who steals quite a few bases.
The Cincinnati Reds will allow Downs to continue working at shortstop at low-A top open 2018.
9. Tony Santillan, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 4/15/1997 (20)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Dayton Dragons
2017 Stats: 25 G, 24 GS, 128 IP, 3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10.5% BB, 24% K
Info: Drafted out of high school in the 2nd round in 2015, Santillan fits with the Cincinnati Reds style of drafting filled-out, big velocity high school arms.
His big time fastball tops triple digits and sits 96-98 with incredible movement. All of his stuff is hard, with a secondary set that starts with a low-90s slider with sharp bite and an upper 80s change that has impressive arm deception.
Santillan puts plenty of effort into every throw, so his control can waver quite a bit from start to start. That is his biggest hang up from rocketing up the system as he has the stuff and frame to be a mid-rotation starter right now with even more upside.
The Cincinnati Reds will open Santillan in high-A in 2018, but if he can get his delivery more consistent, he could jump up the system in a hurry.
Next: #7 and #8
8. Vladimir Gutierrez, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 9/18/1995 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Daytona Tortugas
2017 Stats: 19 GS, 103 IP, 4.46 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 4.4% BB, 21.7% K
Info: Following in the recent push from the Cincinnati Reds to pursue high-end Cuban arms, they signed Gutierrez in August of 2016 for $4.75 million. He made his pro debut in 2017.
Gutierrez jumped straight to high-A and had a solid season before showing some obvious wear and tear in August, not surprising due to his primary role in Cuba being out of the bullpen.
Gutierrez’s stuff might end up playing best out of the bullpen, with a fastball that sits low 90s but can touch 97-98 in short bursts with excellent movement on the pitch. His change is a fringe-plus pitch with excellent arm deception that gets plenty of weak swings from hitters from both sides of the plate.
His breaking stuff needs some work to define better as he has a sharp-breaking slider and a hard curve that can blend together, and getting more distinct movement would allow both pitches to play up more. With his current pitch mix, he could benefit from something like a cutter instead of the slider if that helped him to get a distinction.
His future role for the Cincinnati Reds will be determined strongly on how Gutierrez can handle the workload of the rotation as well as how well he can develop his breaking stuff. He’ll get a shot to work on both in the upper minors in 2018, starting likely in AA.
7. Jose Siri, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 7/22/1995 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Dayton Dragons
2017 Stats: .293/.341/.530, 552 PA, 24 HR, 46 SB, 33/130 BB/K
Info: When Siri was originally signed by the Cincinnati Reds out of the Dominican Republic in 2012 as a high-ceiling outfielder with a ton of gap between what he could be and what he currently was as he still needed to fill into his frame.
Siri (has) a rare blend of power and speed not just in the Reds system, but within the game in general
Siri finally tapped into all of his raw tools in his second go round at the Midwest League. As he’s filled into his 6’2″ frame, he’s developed above-average raw power. That pairs with top-of-the-scale speed that gives Siri a rare blend of power and speed not just in the Reds system, but within the game in general.
Defensively, Siri is a legit center fielder with excellent speed to cover any misreads off the bat, but he’s worked on his instincts to be able to make great jumps.
Due to his slow development, Siri is behind the age curve, and he will be 23 in 2018, likely spending most of the season between high-A and AA. He’s likely not going to be a factor with the Cincinnati Reds plans until at least 2020.
Next: #5 and #6
6. Shed Long, 2B
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/22/1995 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Daytona Tortugas, AA Pensacola Blue Wahoos
2017 Stats: .281/.358/.477, 439 PA, 16 HR, 9 SB, 46/94 BB/K
Info: Originally a backstop out of high school in Alabama when the Cincinnati Reds drafted him in the 12th round in 2013, Long has made a successful transition to the keystone.
Long had a very productive season in 2017 in spite of having to battle through injuries for much of the year. He’s worked hard on his defensive skills at second base, but he’s still more average than anything at second, though he does get very high praise for his comfort level and footwork in turning a double play.
While he stands just 5’8″, Long has a big-time bat with potential to be a hitter for average and 20-25 home run power while still having enough speed to have double digit stolen bases for quite a while. While Long does not take a lot of pitches, he knows the zone well and attacks pitches within the zone with a powerful swing with plenty of gap power.
After finishing the year with just a short time at AA before injury finished his 2017 season, Long will likely open 2018 in AA, but he could factor in the 2019 plans for the Cincinnati Reds with another big season.
5. Jesse Winker, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/17/1993 (24)
2017 teams/levels played for: AAA Louisville Bats, MLB Cincinnati Reds
2017 Stats: Minors: .314/.395/.408, 347 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, 38/46 BB/K; Majors: .298/.375/.529, 137 PA, 7 HR, 1 SB, 15/24 BB/K
Info: Taken with a compensation pick in 2012 out of high school by the Cincinnati Reds, Winker has seemingly been dropping the last few years in prospect rankings due to prospect fatigue as much as anything.
Winker has always been one of the best hitters in the minor leagues
Winker has always been one of the best hitters in the minor leagues, with an incredibly advanced approach, a “pretty” left-handed swing, and the stats to back up the scouting praise on his impressive swing. He’s not shown a ton of power to this point, but getting to the majors seemed to tick up his power as well while not hurting his plate discipline.
Winker’s bat will need to carry him as his defense in the outfield is fringe-average with an average arm and below-average range in the outfield. He is sure-handed on what he does get to and tends to throw accurate, but the raw tools underneath those abilities keep him from ever being more than an average corner outfield defender.
On the bases, Winker uses good baseball instincts to sneak a few stolen bases, but he’s more of an average runner than his steal numbers would indicate.
Winker will almost certainly break camp with the Cincinnati Reds, but whether he will have a full-time job or a platoon job initially is still a bit in the air.
Next: #3 and #4
4. Tyler Mahle, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 9/29/1994 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: AA Pensacola Blue Wahoos, AAA Louisville Bats, MLB Cincinnati Reds
2017 Stats: Minors: 24 GS, 144 1/3 IP, 2.06 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 5.3% BB, 24.5% K; Majors: 4 GS, 20 IP, 2.70 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 12% BB, 15.2% K
Info: A 7th round selection out of high school in 2013 by the Cincinnati Reds, Mahle has worked his way up the system bit by bit. Then in 2017, he took a huge leap forward.
Even with a lean build to his frame, Mahle has added muscle to his build since being drafted, and he’s seen his stuff tick up at the top end
Many in the baseball community simply were noting Mahle’s breakout in AA in April before he tossed a perfect game for Pensacola, going deep in the game with his best velocity, with one gun even registering 99 MPH on his final pitch of the game!
Even with a lean build to his frame, Mahle has added muscle to his build since being drafted, and he’s seen his stuff tick up at the top end. He sits in the low-90s with his fastball, but he can find 96-97 consistently and found 98 multiple times on the season (though only that one game had a 99). He works with a slider that has shown much better break since adding muscle, and his change has seemingly added better arm deception with the better physical development. He does also throw a curve for strikes, but it is still a below-average pitch in consistency of break.
Mahle will need to get more consistent to reach his true ceiling of a good #3, but even now he should have a chance to open 2018 as a member of the Cincinnati Reds rotation and could be a solid #4 with his pitch mix and ability to locate.
3. Taylor Trammell, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 9/13/1997 (20)
2017 teams/levels played for: Dayton Dragons
2017 Stats: .281/.368/.450, 570 PA, 13 HR, 41 SB, 71/123 BB/K
Info: Trammell was raw coming out of high school in Georgia in 2016 due to being an elite football player as well as baseball player. The Cincinnati Reds gave Trammell a big signing bonus as the 35th overall selection to keep him from playing both sports at Georgia Tech.
Many assumed that due to being so raw, Trammell would take extra time to develop, and his draft season did show some raw-ness to his game. However, his 2017 didn’t look at all like a player who would need extra development time with impressive plate discipline, working deep counts, which did lead to a few more strikeouts than one would like, but even then, he struck out just 21.6% of the time in 2017, compared to 12.5% walk rate.
Trammell is absolutely tooled up, with his performance on the season not being at all surprising when he hit 24 doubles, 10 triples, and 13 home runs on the season along with 41 steals. He has above-average raw power that he’s already been able to access in game and could even add more along the way. His double-plus speed allows him to stretch out for plenty of extra bases.
Defensively, Trammell has the speed to work in enter, but his instincts are below-average currently. With a below-average arm, he will need to see some significant improvements in his reads in center or likely move to left field.
The Cincinnati Reds will start Trammell in high-A in 2018, but if he continues to show maturity beyond expectations, he could move up to AA by the end of the season.
Next: #1 and #2
2. Hunter Greene, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/6/1999 (18)
2017 teams/levels played for: advanced rookie Billings Mustangs
2017 Stats: 3 GS, 4 1/3 IP, 12.46 ERA, 2.08 WHIP, 4.8% BB, 28.6% K
Info: With a lot of big talk before the draft of where he would sign, many figured the Cincinnati Reds would need to pay heavily to get Greene to sign as the 2nd overall pick this last June. They weren’t wrong, as Greene received a $7.23 million bonus.
Greene was allowed to hit and pitch both in his first pro experience, but he will be a pitcher-only going forward. On the mound, he’s got some impressive raw ability that could develop into a frontline guy. He is most known for his elite fastball, sitting in the upper 90s and frequently topping 100, maxing out at 102. He doesn’t have a ton of effort to get to those big velo numbers, but it’s still incredible velocity for a high school arm.
His secondary stuff both flashed plus, with a slider that as excellent break at its best along with a change that gets late wiggle, and both pitches feature excellent deception in looking like his fastball out of hand, really making them tough on hitters. That all said, he’s been inconsistent with the pitches, working more to locate them as a pro than to simply let the pitches go and get the movement he was able to generate in high school.
The Cincinnati Reds will want to be careful with Greene’s monster arm as he could be a frontline arm if he’s able to stay healthy and develop his secondaries. He could spend some extended spring still working on secondaries before heading out to low-A with some tight pitch counts.
1. Nick Senzel, 3B
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 6/29/1995 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Daytona Tortugas, AA Pensacola Blue Wahoos
2017 Stats: .321/.391/.514, 507 PA, 14 HR, 14 SB, 49/97 BB/K
Info: Moving around the diamond at Tennessee, Senzel never struggled to hit as one of the most pure hitters many scouts had seen. The Cincinnati Reds agreed, making him the 2nd overall pick of the 2016 draft.
There are few who watch Senzel that don’t come away absolutely raving about him both in tools and his attitude toward the game
Senzel worked all the way to low-A in his draft season, and he didn’t show any issue opening in high-A in the pitching-friendly Florida State League or being bumped up to AA in his first full pro season.
There are few who watch Senzel that don’t come away absolutely raving about him both in tools and his attitude toward the game. Senzel is the consummate “hustler”, giving 100% on grounders and often getting a second base on hits when opponents ease up defensively on a routine single.
He’s certainly got the hitting talent to get to second base all his own as well with excellent power in his quick swing that should allow him to hit for both average and quality power numbers, though he might be more of a 40-double, 20-home run guy than a big home run guy, but that’s still plenty of power.
Senzel simply needs a place to play, and with the extension to Eugenio Suarez, he may have to move off of third base. The Cincinnati Reds will open Senzel in AAA in 2018, but don’t be surprised if he’s playing some other positions to find a spot to move up to the big club by midseason.
Next: Newcomer to watch
2017 Acquisition: Jose Israel Garcia, SS
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 4/5/1998 (19)
2017 teams/levels played for: none
2017 Stats: none
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Info: The Cincinnati Reds signed Cuban Garcia for nearly $5 million in signing bonus. He was a star on the Cuban junior national team, playing second base.
The Reds love Garcia’s athleticism and believe that he can move to shortstop long-term, but he could end up at an up-the-middle position defensively regardless of where he ends up in the end. He has tremendous hands and smooth actions in the field with great range due to his quick first step.
Garcia’s offensive profile has used his speed well, even as he filled in his frame, and he shows good bat control with gap power around the field from line to line.
He should fill in more physically and add in more power into his game. The Cincinnati Reds will likely place Garcia stateside, but he’ll open at extended spring in 2018 before his first assignment.
Next: CTTP's Top 150 prospects
So that is the Cincinnati Reds top 10 prospects for 2018. Who is too high? Too low? Missing entirely from the list? Comment below!!