MLB: The five most predictable pitchers for 2018
These are five MLB pitchers who have the least variation in their 2018 projections based on six different sources.
Previously, I wrote about the five most predictable MLB hitters for 2018, then the five least predictable hitters for 2018. Now it’s time for the most predictable pitchers. Each pitcher had a high ERA projection that was not much higher than his low ERA projection. The most significant range was a difference of 0.17 in ERA.
Also, all of these pitchers had a low standard deviation in projected ERA among all six sources. Below are the six sources used for each player’s projection and the method I used to compare the players.
There are 416 MLB pitchers who appear on all six lists. Before comparing them, I adjusted to put all of the sources on a level playing field. For example, these 416 pitchers were projected by the Clay Davenport projections to have a 4.27 ERA, while ATC projected them to have a 4.04 ERA.
It looks like Davenport is projecting a higher run-scoring environment than ATC. To compare these pitchers, I want them expected for the same run-scoring environment, so I adjusted each pitcher so that the entire group had an ERA of 4.17, which was the average of all six sources.
Using these adjusted numbers, I found the standard deviation for each MLB pitcher in ERA. Pitchers with a lower higher standard deviation have projections that are more similar than those with a higher standard deviation. They are the most predictable pitchers, based on these six sources of projections (statistics for each player are his adjusted statistics).
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
- 151 IP, 133 K, 53 BB, 22 HR, 4.27 ERA—Average of all sources
- 159 IP, 143 K, 54 BB, 24 HR, 4.20 ERA—Best projection (Davenport)
- 159 IP, 137 K, 54 BB, 22 HR, 4.33 ERA—Worst projection (Fangraphs DC)
Once the sources were adjusted, so they all projected the same average ERA for the group, the pitcher with the smallest range of expected ERA was Seattle’s, Felix Hernandez. Every source had Felix with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.33. If he finishes in that range, it would be the third-worst season of his career. He had a 4.52 ERA in his second full season and a 4.36 ERA last year.
Even an ERA around 4.30 might be optimistic for the pitcher Seattle fans like to call “The King.” His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) over the last two seasons was 4.63 and 5.02, the two worst marks of his career. He also had the two lowest strikeout rates of his career and the lowest average fastball velocity of his career during the last two seasons. Felix is down more than five miles per hour from his peak fastball velocity of 95.8 mph in his rookie year.
Felix has made only one Cactus League start in spring training. That outing was cut short when he was hit in the arm by a line drive in the second inning. He then rehabbed for three weeks before pitching three innings against minor leaguers on Monday. He’s expected to throw on Saturday. If that goes well, he will make the MLB Opening Day start on Thursday against Cleveland.
Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals
- 182 IP, 166 K, 70 BB, 21 HR, 4.06 ERA—Average of all sources
- 181 IP, 165 K, 72 BB, 22 HR, 4.00 ERA—Best projection (Davenport)
- 189 IP, 169 K, 74 BB, 24 HR, 4.14 ERA—Worst projection (THE BAT)
An ERA over 4.00 may seem high to Washington Nationals fans who saw Gonzalez post a 2.96 ERA in 201 MLB innings last season. A closer look reveals that Gonzalez had a 3.93 FIP, which suggests there was some kind fortune in his ERA. He had the opposite outcome the previous season when he had a 4.57 ERA and a 3.76 FIP.
Based on the components of FIP—a pitcher’s strikeout rate, walk rate, and rate of home runs allowed—Gonzalez was worse in 2017 than 2016, but his ERA was 1.61 better. He benefitted from a very low .258 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) and a high Left On Base percentage (81.6 percent LOB percentage).
Even an ERA right around 4.00 projects Gonzalez to be a 2-3 WAR pitcher. If the Nationals offense produces runs like they’re expected to, Gonzalez will approach the 15 wins he picked up in 2017. The Nationals offense is projected by Fangraphs to score 4.9 runs per game, which is the third-highest projected mark in the National League behind only the Rockies and Cubs.
Along with a narrow range for his projected ERA, Gonzalez had a close range of his projected WHIP. His best projection is for a 1.33 WHIP, and his worst is for 1.37. That range is quite a bit higher than last year’s 1.18 WHIP, but it would fit right in with his 2016 MLB mark of 1.34.
Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals
- 173 IP, 148 K, 60 BB, 23 HR, 4.26 ERA—Average of all sources
- 170 IP, 144 K, 66 BB, 23 HR, 4.17 ERA—Best projection (THE BAT)
- 173 IP, 152 K, 62 BB, 23 HR, 4.32 ERA—Worst projection (Davenport)
A second Washington Nationals pitcher makes the most predictable MLB list, and it’s Tanner Roark, who had a 4.67 ERA last year, but just a 4.13 FIP. His projections this year all fall within the range of 4.17 and 4.32. If his ERA ends up over 4.00, it will throw off the up-and-down pattern he’s had the last four years: 2.85, 4.38, 2.83, 4.67. If the trend holds, Roark will have an ERA under 3.00, and all of these projections will be way off.
The key for Roark appears to be his effectiveness at preventing home runs. He’s had three seasons with a home runs-allowed per nine innings under 1.0 and his ERA in those seasons was under 3.00. In the two seasons in which he’s given up more than one home run per nine innings, his ERA has been over 4.00.
Coming into Thursday’s outing, he’d had five spring training starts and allowed just one home run in 15 innings, so he was looking good. Then he got blasted for nine earned runs in less than four innings, including a bomb to Yoenis Cespedes. We’ll have to see what happens when the MLB games start to count.
Roark is slated to be the Nationals’ number four starter, behind Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez. According to Fangraphs playoff probabilities, which includes a strength-of-schedule adjustment, the Nationals project to win the NL East by eight or nine games.
Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox
- 64 IP, 101 K, 24 BB, 7 HR, 2.47 ERA—Average of all sources
- 64 IP, 104 K, 21 BB, 6 HR, 2.37 ERA—Best projection (ATC)
- 65 IP, 105 K, 26 BB, 6 HR, 2.53 ERA—Worst projection (Fangraphs DC)
Boston’s hard-throwing closer is baseball’s fourth-most-predictable MLB pitcher and most-predictable reliever. His ERA is projected by all six sources to be from 2.37 to 2.53, and his WHIP is projected from 0.98 to 1.03. As good as that is, it would be much worse than Kimbrel was just last season when he had a 1.43 ERA and 0.68 WHIP.
Kimbrel struck out 49.6 percent of the batters he faced last year, which was the third-best rate of all-time for relievers with 40 or more innings. Kimbrel’s 2012 season was the second highest and Aroldis Chapman’s 52.5 percent strikeout rate in 2014 is the gold standard.
It’s important to remember that Kimbrel’s 1.43 ERA last year makes up just part of his projection for this year. In the two previous seasons, he had ERAs of 2.58 and 3.40, with FIPs of 2.68 and 2.92. Those seasons count when making projections, which is part of the reason Kimbrel’s ERA is projected to rise from last year’s 1.43. Regression to the mean is another reason, as is Kimbrel’s age. He’ll be 30 in May.
When the season kicks off next week, Kimbrel will be there at the tail end of Red Sox games ready to shut the door. It looks like the Red Sox and Yankees will be battling for supremacy in the AL East. Fangraphs has the Yankees projected to win 94 games with a 54.7 percent probability of winning the division. The Red Sox are projected for 92 MLB wins with a 37.1 percent probability of winning the AL East.
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
- 146 IP, 170 K, 58 BB, 8 HR, 3.50 ERA—Average of all sources
- 148 IP, 167 K, 56 BB, 17 HR, 3.41 ERA—Best projection (THE BAT)
- 147 IP, 166 K, 57 BB, 19 HR, 3.58 ERA—Worst projection (ATC)
In a somewhat surprising twist, the Angels top MLB prospect, Shohei Ohtani, makes the list of the five most predictable pitchers in 2018. Of course, this is based on projections. Every source has Ohtani with an ERA between 3.41 and 3.58. The range of forecasts for his WHIP is from 1.20 to 1.26.
Ohtani’s 27.00 ERA in spring training is causing many fans to freak out a bit, but it’s a minimal sample size. Wade Davis had a 14.40 ERA in five spring training innings last year, then had a 2.30 ERA in the regular season. Some are speculating that Ohtani should start the season in the minor leagues. He is only 23 years old and trying to make the jump from Japan to the U.S. So far, the Angels haven’t made any rash decisions.
Angels manager Mike Scioscia is confident in Ohtani, saying,
“I can only say that Shohei’s talent is real. Obviously, we believe in it. We anticipate him being ready to both pitch and hit when the season starts.”
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If Ohtani reaches his projections, he and the Angels will be just fine. They aren’t favorites to reach the playoffs this year, but they’re in the conversation. Fangraphs has them with a 23.4 percent chance to be one of the MLB wild card teams.