Call to the pen
Fansided

MLB: The five most predictable pitchers for 2018

By Bobby Mueller

BOSTON, MA - OCTOBER 9: Craig Kimbrel
BOSTON, MA - OCTOBER 9: Craig Kimbrel /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
2 of 6
Next
MLB
SEATTLE, WA – SEPTEMBER 20: Starter Felix Hernandez /

Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

  • 151 IP, 133 K, 53 BB, 22 HR, 4.27 ERA—Average of all sources
  • 159 IP, 143 K, 54 BB, 24 HR, 4.20 ERA—Best projection (Davenport)
  • 159 IP, 137 K, 54 BB, 22 HR, 4.33 ERA—Worst projection (Fangraphs DC)

Once the sources were adjusted, so they all projected the same average ERA for the group, the pitcher with the smallest range of expected ERA was Seattle’s, Felix Hernandez. Every source had Felix with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.33. If he finishes in that range, it would be the third-worst season of his career. He had a 4.52 ERA in his second full season and a 4.36 ERA last year.

Even an ERA around 4.30 might be optimistic for the pitcher Seattle fans like to call “The King.” His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) over the last two seasons was 4.63 and 5.02, the two worst marks of his career. He also had the two lowest strikeout rates of his career and the lowest average fastball velocity of his career during the last two seasons. Felix is down more than five miles per hour from his peak fastball velocity of 95.8 mph in his rookie year.

Felix has made only one Cactus League start in spring training. That outing was cut short when he was hit in the arm by a line drive in the second inning. He then rehabbed for three weeks before pitching three innings against minor leaguers on Monday. He’s expected to throw on Saturday. If that goes well, he will make the MLB Opening Day start on Thursday against Cleveland.

Home/MLB News