MLB: The five most predictable pitchers for 2018

Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals

• 182 IP, 166 K, 70 BB, 21 HR, 4.06 ERA—Average of all sources
• 181 IP, 165 K, 72 BB, 22 HR, 4.00 ERA—Best projection (Davenport)
• 189 IP, 169 K, 74 BB, 24 HR, 4.14 ERA—Worst projection (THE BAT)

An ERA over 4.00 may seem high to Washington Nationals fans who saw Gonzalez post a 2.96 ERA in 201 MLB innings last season. A closer look reveals that Gonzalez had a 3.93 FIP, which suggests there was some kind fortune in his ERA. He had the opposite outcome the previous season when he had a 4.57 ERA and a 3.76 FIP.

Based on the components of FIP—a pitcher’s strikeout rate, walk rate, and rate of home runs allowed—Gonzalez was worse in 2017 than 2016, but his ERA was 1.61 better. He benefitted from a very low .258 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) and a high Left On Base percentage (81.6 percent LOB percentage).

Even an ERA right around 4.00 projects Gonzalez to be a 2-3 WAR pitcher. If the Nationals offense produces runs like they’re expected to, Gonzalez will approach the 15 wins he picked up in 2017. The Nationals offense is projected by Fangraphs to score 4.9 runs per game, which is the third-highest projected mark in the National League behind only the Rockies and Cubs.

Along with a narrow range for his projected ERA, Gonzalez had a close range of his projected WHIP. His best projection is for a 1.33 WHIP, and his worst is for 1.37. That range is quite a bit higher than last year’s 1.18 WHIP, but it would fit right in with his 2016 MLB mark of 1.34.