Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals
- 173 IP, 148 K, 60 BB, 23 HR, 4.26 ERA—Average of all sources
- 170 IP, 144 K, 66 BB, 23 HR, 4.17 ERA—Best projection (THE BAT)
- 173 IP, 152 K, 62 BB, 23 HR, 4.32 ERA—Worst projection (Davenport)
A second Washington Nationals pitcher makes the most predictable MLB list, and it’s Tanner Roark, who had a 4.67 ERA last year, but just a 4.13 FIP. His projections this year all fall within the range of 4.17 and 4.32. If his ERA ends up over 4.00, it will throw off the up-and-down pattern he’s had the last four years: 2.85, 4.38, 2.83, 4.67. If the trend holds, Roark will have an ERA under 3.00, and all of these projections will be way off.
The key for Roark appears to be his effectiveness at preventing home runs. He’s had three seasons with a home runs-allowed per nine innings under 1.0 and his ERA in those seasons was under 3.00. In the two seasons in which he’s given up more than one home run per nine innings, his ERA has been over 4.00.
Coming into Thursday’s outing, he’d had five spring training starts and allowed just one home run in 15 innings, so he was looking good. Then he got blasted for nine earned runs in less than four innings, including a bomb to Yoenis Cespedes. We’ll have to see what happens when the MLB games start to count.
Roark is slated to be the Nationals’ number four starter, behind Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez. According to Fangraphs playoff probabilities, which includes a strength-of-schedule adjustment, the Nationals project to win the NL East by eight or nine games.