Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox
- 64 IP, 101 K, 24 BB, 7 HR, 2.47 ERA—Average of all sources
- 64 IP, 104 K, 21 BB, 6 HR, 2.37 ERA—Best projection (ATC)
- 65 IP, 105 K, 26 BB, 6 HR, 2.53 ERA—Worst projection (Fangraphs DC)
Boston’s hard-throwing closer is baseball’s fourth-most-predictable MLB pitcher and most-predictable reliever. His ERA is projected by all six sources to be from 2.37 to 2.53, and his WHIP is projected from 0.98 to 1.03. As good as that is, it would be much worse than Kimbrel was just last season when he had a 1.43 ERA and 0.68 WHIP.
Kimbrel struck out 49.6 percent of the batters he faced last year, which was the third-best rate of all-time for relievers with 40 or more innings. Kimbrel’s 2012 season was the second highest and Aroldis Chapman’s 52.5 percent strikeout rate in 2014 is the gold standard.
It’s important to remember that Kimbrel’s 1.43 ERA last year makes up just part of his projection for this year. In the two previous seasons, he had ERAs of 2.58 and 3.40, with FIPs of 2.68 and 2.92. Those seasons count when making projections, which is part of the reason Kimbrel’s ERA is projected to rise from last year’s 1.43. Regression to the mean is another reason, as is Kimbrel’s age. He’ll be 30 in May.
When the season kicks off next week, Kimbrel will be there at the tail end of Red Sox games ready to shut the door. It looks like the Red Sox and Yankees will be battling for supremacy in the AL East. Fangraphs has the Yankees projected to win 94 games with a 54.7 percent probability of winning the division. The Red Sox are projected for 92 MLB wins with a 37.1 percent probability of winning the AL East.