Phillies vs. New York Mets for 2018
For Phillies fans, 2018 represents a return to competitive baseball with a possible shot at the Wild Card Game, but firstly the red pinstripes must win the season series over our northern neighbor: not a slam dunk.
Determining factor:
Finishing second in the National League East will increase the Philadelphia Phillies‘ chances to make the playoffs, but their record against the New York Mets could decide the victor. And if both franchises play that one-game decider for an NLDS berth, the series winner might have home-field advantage.
IN OTHER WORDS: “In this day and time, with no competition you are really walking a tightrope. I mean you may think that no competition is good, but in reality no competition is really bad.” – Jerry Lawler
By month’s end, the Phils will be preparing for their series in New York. And these three contests will probably set the tone for the entire 162. But this summer, the results are not a foregone conclusion.
Barring unforeseen events, the Washington Nationals will be atop the NL East at campaign’s end, but free agency could weaken them in 2019. Therefore, they will go all out to win the World Series if they can get there.
At the bottom of the division, the Miami Marlins will probably have the first overall selection in the 2019 MLB Draft. And the Atlanta Braves will be a surprise if they play .500 ball. Of course, dominant performances against these two organizations could be a factor.
Like the locals, the Mets have many ifs. On the other hand, nobody expects them to go 70-92 in ’18 or have a 12-7 mark over the Phillies. So, how many more victories will the red and white have versus the Metropolitans? Two or three?
Mets records:
- 2017: 70-92
- 2016: 87-75
- 2015: 90-72
According to Fangraphs, the odds for our northern neighbors to make the playoffs are 42.4 percent and 24.7 percent to win a wild card. But what did this mean to their supporters?
Well, one New Yorker on a Mets site posted that the numbers indicate his team will capture the second wild card. Another cautioned not to make too much out of it. However, a third fan stated they are the favorite for a wild card.
On a national site, Philly locals debated being in the hunt for a one-game opportunity after the season, and they compared the competition from the other senior circuit divisions. Unfortunately, they didn’t mention the Metropolitans due to their 70 victories last year. That record is deceptive.
Divisional adversaries:
When you compare Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard to Jake Arrieta and Aaron Nola, New York has a limited advantage. On average, however, if these four face each other, the rubber game will be in the hands of both third starters.
The balance of the Mets’ rotation features an injury-plagued southpaw, a comeback candidate, and an innings-eating addition. Locally, the red pinstripes have two flamethrowers among their five possibilities including two with injury concerns.
Runs scored in 2017:
- Total: the Mets with 735 and the Phillies with 690.
- Second half: the Phillies with 358 and the Mets with 329.
The run production for our northern neighbor will come from Yoenis Cespedes (RH), Jay Bruce (LH) and Todd Frazier (RH), while the table setters are Michael Conforto (LH) and Asdrubal Cabrera (SH). Also, they have a .300-hitting prospect: Their rookie shortstop had solid Triple-A stats.
Mets offense:
- Cespedes, 32.5: .292, 17 HR, 42 RBI, .352 OBP and an .892 OPS.
- Conforto, 25: .279, 27 HR, 68 RBI, .384 OBP and a .939 OPS.
- Cabrera, 32.5: .280, 14 HR, 59 RBI, .351 OBP and a .785 OPS.
- Bruce, almost 31: .254, 36 HR, 101 RBI and a .832 OPS.
- Frazier, 32: .213, 27 HR, 76 RBI and a .772 OPS.
Phillies offense:
- Santana, almost 32: .259, 23 HR, 79 RBI, .363 OBP and an .818 OPS.
- Hoskins, 25: .259, 18 HR, 48 RBI, .396 OBP and a 1.014 OPS.
- Herrera, 26: .281, 14 HR, 56 RBI and a .778 OPS.
- Hernandez, 27.5: .294, 9 HR, a .373 OBP and a .793 OPS.
- Altherr, 27: ,272, 19 HR, 65 RBI, .340 OBP and an .856 OPS.
- Franco, 25.5: .230, 24 HR, 76 RBI and a .690 OPS.
As for the Phils, Carlos Santana (SH) and Rhys Hoskins (RH) are the primary RBI men, while leadoff hitter Cesar Hernandez (SH) and Odubel Herrera (LH) in the three hole will be the run scorers on many occasions. Additionally, right-handed hitters Aaron Altherr and Maikel Franco are secondary run producers with a rookie second baseman on the horizon.
Extinguishing fires:
Keep in mind; the bullpens will determine many outcomes between these two foes with a fierce rivalry dead ahead. The hometown crew has a closer, five setup men, a lefty specialist and a long man, which is the better configuration. Ergo, a slight edge.
For the team from Queens, they have a closer, three setup men, two now long relievers and an injury-prone starter with mid-90’s smoke. Those three former starters could work like the pen used by the Houston Astros in the postseason. A coin flip!
Regarding other factors, health–or lack thereof–will play a critical role for both organizations, and a full injury-free summer for individual players would make a huge difference. But financially the local nine can absorb a salary dump of a significant piece at the trading deadline for an advantage there.
During the offseason, New York added Bruce, Frazier, starter Vargas and setup man Swarzak to improve their offense, rotation, and relief corps. And the red pinstripes acquired Arrieta, Santana, Neshek, and Hunter: an ace, a slugger and two late-frame firemen.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: “Sooner or later, those who win are those who think they can.” – Paul Tournier
Granted, the other divisions have strong contenders for game 163: the St. Louis Cardinals, the San Francisco Giants, the Milwaukee Brewers, the Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks. But if the Mets or the Phillies beat the other by 12 to 7 in their matchups, will the loser deserve either wild card? No!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Phillies starters:
- Arrieta, 32: 30 Gms., 168 1/3 Inn., 14-10, a 3.53 ERA, a 4.16 FIP, a 4.11 xFIP, a 4.15 SIERA, a 2.4 fWAR and a 1.22 WHIP.
- Nola, 24.5: 27 Gms., 168 Inn., 12-11, a 3.54 ERA, a 3.27 FIP, a 3.38 xFIP, a 3.60 SIERA, a 4.3 fWAR and a 1.21 WHIP.
Mets starters:
- deGrom, 29.5: 31 Gms., 201 1/3 Inn., 15-10, a 3.53 ERA, a 3.50 FIP, a 3.23 xFIP, a 3.44 SIERA, a 4.4 fWAR and a 1.19 WHIP.
- Syndergaard, 25.5: 7 Gms., 30 1/3 Inn., 1-2, a 2.97 ERA, a 1.31 FIP, a 2.48 xFIP, a 2.74 SIERA, a 1.4 fWAR and a 1.05 WHIP.
Phillies regulars:
- Santana, almost 32: 154 Gms., 667 PA, a .259 Avg., a .363 OBP, a .455 SLG, a .196 ISO, a .274 BABIP, 23 HR, 79 RBI, an .818 OPS and a 3.0 fWAR.
- Hernandez, 27.5: 128 Gms., 577 PA, a .294 Avg., a .373 OBP, a .421 SLG, a .127 ISO, a .353 BABIP, 9 HR, 34 RBI, a .793 OPS, 3.3 fWAR, 15 SB, 5 CS and a 6.0 Spd.
- Herrera, 26: 138 Gms., 563 PA, a .281 Avg., a .325 OBP, a .452 SLG, a .171 ISO, a .345 BABIP, 14 HR, 56 RBI, a .778 OPS and a 2.8 fWAR.
- Altherr, 27: 107 Gms., 412 PA, a .272 Avg., a .340 OBP, a .516 SLG, a .245 ISO, a .308 BABIP, 19 HR, 65 RBI, an .856 OPS and a 1.3 fWAR.
- Franco, 25.5: 154 Gms., 623 PA, a .230 Avg., a .281 OBP, a .409 SLG, a .179 ISO, a .234 BABIP, 24 HR, 76 RBI, a .690 OPS and a -0.5 fWAR.
Hoskins, 25:
- Phillies: 50 Gms., 212 PA, a .259 Avg., a .396 OBP, a .618 SLG, a .359 ISO, a .241 BABIP, 18 HR, 48 RBI, a 1.014 OPS and a 2.2 fWAR.
- AAA: 115 Gms., 425 PA, a .284 Avg., a .385 OBP, a .581 SLG, a .297 ISO, a .229 BABIP, 29 HR, 91 RBI, a .966 OPS and a 2.7 WARP.
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Mets regulars:
- Cespedes, 32.5: 81 Gms., 321 PA, a .292 Avg., a .523 OBP, a .540 SLG, a .247 ISO, a .316 BABIP, 17 HR, 42 RBI, an .892 OPS and a 1.6 fWAR.
- Bruce, almost 31: 146 Gms., 617 PA, a .254 Avg., a .324 OBP, a .508 SLG, a .254 ISO, a .274 BABIP, 36 HR,101 RBI, an .832 OPS and a 2.7 fWAR.
- Conforto, 25: 109 Gms., 440 PA, a .279 Avg., a .384 OBP, a .555 SLG, a .276 ISO, a .328 BABIP, 27 HR, 68 RBI, a .939 OPS and a 4.4 fWAR.
- Cabrera, 32: 135 Gms., 540 PA, a .280 Avg., a .351 OBP, a .434 SLG, a .154 ISO, a .310 BABIP, 14 HR, 59 RBI, a .785 OPS and a 1.3 fWAR.
- Frazier, 32: 147 Gms., 576 PA, a .213 Avg., a .344 OBP, a .428 SLG, a .215 ISO, a .226 BABIP, 27 HR, 76 RBI, a .772 OPS and a 3.0 fWAR.
Phillies relievers:
- Neris, 28.5: 74 Gms., 74 2/3 Inn., 26 Saves, 3 BS, 4 Holds, a 3.01 ERA, a 3.71 FIP, a 4.21 xFIP, a 3.53 SIERA, a 1.1 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.
- Garcia, 31: 66 Gms., 71 1/3 Inn., 14 Holds, 2 Saves, a 2.65 ERA, a 3.12 FIP, a 3.89 xFIP, a 3.90 SIERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 1.22 WHIP.
- Hunter, 31.5: 61 Gms., 58 2/3 Inn., 25 Holds, a 2.61 ERA, a 3.07 FIP, a 3.29 xFIP, a 3.07 SIERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 0.97 WHIP.
- Neshek, 37.5: 71 Gms., 62 1/3 Inn., 23 Holds, a 1.59 ERA, a 1.86 FIP, a 3.26 xFIP, a 2.70 SIERA, a 2.5 fWAR and a 0.87 WHIP.
- Morgan, 28: 37 Gms., 54 2/3 Inn., 6 Holds, a 4.12 ERA, a 4.22 FIP, a 3.47 xFIP, a 3.30 SIERA, a 0.3 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.
- Ramos, 25: 59 Gms., 57 2/3 Inn., 9 Holds, a 4.21 ERA, a 2.91 FIP, a 3.68 xFIP, a 3.55 SIERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 1.47 WHIP.
Next: Phillies' influential acquisitions
Mets relievers:
- Familia, 28.5: 26 Gms., 24 2/3 Inn., 6 Saves, 1 BS, 2 Holds, a 4.38 ERA, a 3.60 FIP, a 4.01 xFIP, a 4.23 SIERA, a 0.3 fWAR and a 1.46 WHIP.
- Ramos, 31.5: 61 Gms., 87 2/3 Inn., 27 Saves, 3 BS, 1 Hold, a 3.99 ERA, a 4.10 FIP, a 4.30 xFIP, a 4.01 SIERA, a 0.4 fWAR and a 1.41 WHIP.
- Swarzak, 32.5: 70 Gms., 77 1/3 Inn., 27 Holds, 2 Saves, a 2.33 ERA, a 2.74 FIP, a 3.48 xFIP, a 3.02 SIERA, a 2.2 fWAR and a 1.03 WHIP.
- Blevins, 34.5: 75 Gms., 49 Inn., 19 Holds, 1 Save, a 2.94 ERA, a 3.12 FIP, a 3.69 xFIP, a 3.31 SIERA, a 1.0 fWAR and a 1.37 WHIP.