Let’s Get Messy.
This article by Andrew Perpetua breaks down production across launch angles. If you don’t mind the recommendation, is a must-read for anyone looking to keep up with fancy new Statcast metrics. The long and short of it is that the most productive overall range that Andrew is tracking at xstats.org is 19-26 degrees. The top home run production range is 26-39 degrees.
I took a look at Red Sox hitters and how they performed in these ranges this past winter. I found that Devers had the lowest combined percentage of balls hit in these two ranges among Sox starters for the season. In fact, among the 180 hitters with 450 PAs or more, he would have finished tied for 173rd had he qualified.
I’m not convinced this is a matter of approach and is an area in which we could see significant improvement this summer. My best guess is that he was adjusting to major league breaking balls. Even the top hitting prospects don’t get to face major league breaking balls before hitting The Show. Pitchers with major league breaking balls tend to move quickly through the minors.
This is supported by the extremely high rate of dribblers (balls less than zero degrees) and popups (balls hit at greater than 39 degrees) that Devers put into play last year. His combined total of 61.8% would have led major league baseball among those 180 hitters. Despite his results, he wasn’t making significant contact very often.
Rafael Devers May Be The Best Hitter On The Boston Red Sox By The End Of The Year:
Perhaps this is a matter of his first 20 games versus the following 38. Or maybe he just wasn’t squaring the ball up regularly at any point last year. Either way, he has a lot of room for improvement here and more than enough talent to do it.
He will adjust and start laying off pitches he shouldn’t be trying to put into play. He should also begin driving some of the ones he was just missing the barrel. With that, we would see a rise in the number of hard-hit balls that come off his bat. If that happens, the sky is the limit for him.
Next: How thin is that ice that is the Sox bullpen?
And let’s face it, adjusting is something we know he can do quickly:
With some regression due to J.D. Martinez and the room Devers has to grow, don’t be shocked the kid is the one we want up most close and late in the playoffs this year for the Boston Red Sox.