Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers may become team’s best hitter
After an exciting rookie debut for the Red Sox, Rafael Devers looks to take a step forward in his second season. He has the tools to be the kind of middle of the order bat opposing pitchers fear, But he has some ground to cover between here and there.
Red Sox Nation had been waiting years to see the next developed hitting phenom arrive at Fenway. He did not disappoint and while he has a long way to go, Rafael Devers may be the best hitter on the Boston Red Sox… eventually.
His rookie season, shortened though it was, gave us something that we’ve never actually seen before.
No player aged 20 or younger with 250 or fewer plate appearances has ever hit ten home runs. That he hit eight of those in his first 20 (out of 58) games is merely remarkable. It is also the record for the most home runs by a player under 21 over that many games.
Those of you of discerning minds will likely be asking if that means anything. And you’d be right to do so. Esoteric stats are part of what makes baseball so much fun to follow. But often times we drill so far down into the criteria that we lose predictive value. So what can we take from Devers’ 2017 season?
His Rookie Season Still Puts Him In Rare Company:
We can alter our criteria to just players aged 20 or younger who posted a 110 OPS+ or better with at least 10 home runs as rookies. That leaves us with 14 players:
Devers had the fewest games played on the list, and there’s no guarantee he’d have maintained that pace all season. The fact remains that what he did do with the time that he had was incredibly rare.
If we were to extrapolate his season over 600 plate appearances, he would have 25 home runs, 35 doubles, 158 hits, 45 walks and 143 strikeouts.
He would have ranked third in home runs and doubles and fourth in hits on the above list.
Enough Esoteria. What Else Have You Got?
As exciting as search criteria like the above can be, it can only take us so far. Let’s take a look back at what people were saying about him when he first signed.
Over The Monster published some articles at the time with quotes from prospect experts around the web. In this piece they quoted Ben Badler of Baseball America who had the following to say:
“Devers might be the best hitter on the international market. With good bat speed and a compact lefty swing, Devers has strong hitting instincts and feel for putting the barrel to the ball. After going from 5-foot-11, 190 pounds in January up to around 6-foot-1, 215 pounds today, Devers has shown solid game power as well.”
A few months later they quoted Kiley McDaniel here who wrote:
“Devers’ power is fringy right now but he can hit the ball with authority to all fields and his power already shows up in game situations. This type of power ages well and while he doesn’t have physical projection, Devers is young enough that he’ll add some good weight and drop some bad weight.”
The sky was the limit, but hype follows many international free agents and most of them fall well short. Devers needed to go out and perform to keep his ceiling intact.
Journey Through The Minors.
Dropping dead-weight and adding sound pieces is precisely what Devers did, and his power has developed along the way. His pro debut in 2014 went about as well as could be hoped. He slashed .322/.404/.506 with seven home runs over 70 games across two levels.
In the winter that followed the 2014 season, Bleacher Report had the hitting phenom ranked 5th overall in the Red Sox system. They tagged his power with a 65 grade and had this to say:
“Though he’s only 18, Devers is already a physically strong left-handed hitter. His explosive bat speed and huge extension through contact produces plus-plus raw power to all fields—the kind of power that could potentially translate to 25-plus home runs (grade 65 on 20-80 scouting scale) in the major leagues.”
That prompted a jump to Greenville (A ball) where he played 115 games in 2015. He started the year cold but finished strong ending the season with at .289/.329/.443 with 11 home runs. At just 18 years old, holding his own and making adjustments at that level is impressive in its own right.
The following year he moved to high-A and played for Salem. Over 128 games he had similar results to his Greenville stay slugging 11 home runs and .282/.335/.443. Lewis-Gale Field is known to suppress home run production, so the apparent step back in HR/PA may not tell the whole story. And at 19 he was once again very young for the league.
While his run in Salem was encouraging, he had yet to break out as a prospect really. The in-game power was shown in flashes, but the question of whether or not he could get to his plus raw power in games was still mostly unanswered — though it wouldn’t go unanswered for long.
Before being called up in late July last year, Devers obliterated AA pitching. He posted a .300/.369/.575 slash line with 18 home runs and a 155 wRC+ over 320 plate appearances. That’s a 34 home run pace and showed the Red Sox enough that they opted not to trade for Todd Frazier.
After a brief stint in AAA Pawtucket where he continued to mash, the long wait at Fenway was finally over.
The Promotion.
Devers wasted no time making his mark. His first 20 games were among the best 20 games to start a career ever. He cooled after that but the 58 games he played by the end of the season still rank as one of the best debuts for a 20-year-old in MLB history. It wasn’t just what he was doing on the field that caught people’s attention. It was how he was doing it.
Devers displayed the ability to hit to all fields, and not only hit but hit for power. Dave Cameron (formerly) of Fangraphs took notice:
“So far, Devers has put 25 balls in play, and he’s pulled exactly five of them. 20 of the 25 balls he’s put in play have gone to center or left field, despite the fact that Devers is a left-handed hitter. In his first week in the big leagues, Devers has basically just pounded the ball up the middle or to left field.”
He followed up with this:
“What’s particularly interesting about Devers performance thus far is that, despite going up the middle and the other way all the time, he’s hit the ball very hard. His 25 batted balls have an average exit velocity of 92.5 mph, which ranks 5th highest — behind only Aaron Judge, Miguel Sano, Joey Gallo, and Nelson Cruz — in baseball among hitters with 20+ balls in play. There’s not much overlap between the exit velocity leaderboards the guys who pull the ball the least often.”
The ability to spray the ball to all fields with authority at the tender age of 20 is incredibly rare. But how much room is there for improvement?
Let’s Get Messy.
This article by Andrew Perpetua breaks down production across launch angles. If you don’t mind the recommendation, is a must-read for anyone looking to keep up with fancy new Statcast metrics. The long and short of it is that the most productive overall range that Andrew is tracking at xstats.org is 19-26 degrees. The top home run production range is 26-39 degrees.
I took a look at Red Sox hitters and how they performed in these ranges this past winter. I found that Devers had the lowest combined percentage of balls hit in these two ranges among Sox starters for the season. In fact, among the 180 hitters with 450 PAs or more, he would have finished tied for 173rd had he qualified.
I’m not convinced this is a matter of approach and is an area in which we could see significant improvement this summer. My best guess is that he was adjusting to major league breaking balls. Even the top hitting prospects don’t get to face major league breaking balls before hitting The Show. Pitchers with major league breaking balls tend to move quickly through the minors.
This is supported by the extremely high rate of dribblers (balls less than zero degrees) and popups (balls hit at greater than 39 degrees) that Devers put into play last year. His combined total of 61.8% would have led major league baseball among those 180 hitters. Despite his results, he wasn’t making significant contact very often.
Rafael Devers May Be The Best Hitter On The Boston Red Sox By The End Of The Year:
Perhaps this is a matter of his first 20 games versus the following 38. Or maybe he just wasn’t squaring the ball up regularly at any point last year. Either way, he has a lot of room for improvement here and more than enough talent to do it.
He will adjust and start laying off pitches he shouldn’t be trying to put into play. He should also begin driving some of the ones he was just missing the barrel. With that, we would see a rise in the number of hard-hit balls that come off his bat. If that happens, the sky is the limit for him.
Next: How thin is that ice that is the Sox bullpen?
And let’s face it, adjusting is something we know he can do quickly:
With some regression due to J.D. Martinez and the room Devers has to grow, don’t be shocked the kid is the one we want up most close and late in the playoffs this year for the Boston Red Sox.