Cleveland Indians: Projecting the starting rotation
It’s hard to repeat a historically good season, but with all of last year’s contributors returning, the 2018 Cleveland Indians starting rotation projects to come close.
The 2017 Cleveland Indians had arguably the most exceptional pitching staff of all time. The Indians out-pitched every other team in the modern era by nearly two WAR according to Fangraphs. The team displayed shear mastery up and down the staff with the most dominant starting rotation ever and one of the greatest bullpens of all time as well. The entire rotation returns for 2018 looking to build on their excellent year and attempt to reach new heights.
The best way to look at the season ahead is to look at the projections for the coming season. These projections not only give an estimate for individual players but also teams and division standings. There are three primary projection systems that I look at when evaluating players and teams: Pecota, ZiPS, and Steamer.
Fortunately for us, Fangraphs combines ZiPS and Steamer into one handy projection system which mostly leaves us with Fangraphs projections and Baseball Prospectus projections or Pecota. For this exercise, I have combined both projections into one to make it more comprehensive. While no one can predict baseball, this should come as close as possible.
Here are the projections for the starting rotation for 2018:
| Name | IP | ERA | FIP | DRA | XRA* | K/9 | BB/9 | WHIP | WAR |
| Corey Kluber | 207 | 3.03 | 2.99 | 3.45 | 2.50 | 10.3 | 2.3 | 1.11 | 5.6 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 175 | 3.33 | 3.41 | 3.78 | 3.38 | 9.8 | 2.4 | 1.17 | 3.9 |
| Trevor Bauer | 168 | 3.89 | 4.00 | 4.24 | 4.58 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 1.32 | 2.7 |
| Josh Tomlin | 139 | 4.97 | 4.67 | 5.88 | 4.98 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 1.33 | 0.2 |
| Danny Salazar | 128 | 3.41 | 3.63 | 3.68 | 4.19 | 11.1 | 3.6 | 1.24 | 2.7 |
| Mike Clevinger | 102 | 4.30 | 4.58 | 4.67 | 4.61 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.38 | 1.1 |
*XRA is a stat I created based on Statcast data. The projection is simply a weighted average of the last few seasons with more weight on the most recent season.
Collectively, the starting rotation is projected to accrue roughly 16 wins above replacement, which ranks them as one of the top rotations in baseball going into the season. Should the Indians perform up to their projections, the team would likely be looking at another central division title.
Let’s take a look at each of these pitchers individually: