It’s hard to repeat a historically good season, but with all of last year’s contributors returning, the 2018 Cleveland Indians starting rotation projects to come close.
The 2017 Cleveland Indians had arguably the most exceptional pitching staff of all time. The Indians out-pitched every other team in the modern era by nearly two WAR according to Fangraphs. The team displayed shear mastery up and down the staff with the most dominant starting rotation ever and one of the greatest bullpens of all time as well. The entire rotation returns for 2018 looking to build on their excellent year and attempt to reach new heights.
The best way to look at the season ahead is to look at the projections for the coming season. These projections not only give an estimate for individual players but also teams and division standings. There are three primary projection systems that I look at when evaluating players and teams: Pecota, ZiPS, and Steamer.
Fortunately for us, Fangraphs combines ZiPS and Steamer into one handy projection system which mostly leaves us with Fangraphs projections and Baseball Prospectus projections or Pecota. For this exercise, I have combined both projections into one to make it more comprehensive. While no one can predict baseball, this should come as close as possible.
Here are the projections for the starting rotation for 2018:
*XRA is a stat I created based on Statcast data. The projection is simply a weighted average of the last few seasons with more weight on the most recent season.
Collectively, the starting rotation is projected to accrue roughly 16 wins above replacement, which ranks them as one of the top rotations in baseball going into the season. Should the Indians perform up to their projections, the team would likely be looking at another central division title.
Let’s take a look at each of these pitchers individually:
Corey Kluber
After winning the American League Cy Young award yet again in 2017, Corey Kluber will look to become just the eleventh pitcher to win the award three times. He has a good shot at doing so as Fangraphs projects him to have the highest WAR of any pitcher in baseball and Pecota has him in third just behind Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw. After four elite seasons in a row, there is no doubt that Kluber is now in the very top tier of starting pitchers in the game. If he can continue this run for a few more years, he may end up with a plaque in Cooperstown when it is all said and done.
All of the projections agree that he will be one of the best pitchers in baseball but to differing degrees. Kluber’s 3.45 DRA projection is pretty high, especially when he posted a league-leading 2.05 mark last season. Pecota is typically slow to adapt, so I would imagine he is still getting penalized for his early career struggles.
My projection using XRA, a stat I created from Statcast data, is the most bullish projection. At just 2.50 XRA Kluber projects to be one of the best starting pitchers in baseball once again. XRA only has three seasons of data thus far and doesn’t take into account Kluber’s first several seasons. This is probably the main reason for the discrepancy.
Carlos Carrasco
Carlos Carrasco is one of the most underrated pitchers in the league and a borderline ace in his own right. Originally brought over like a piece in the Cliff Lee trade to Philadelphia in 2009, Carrasco took awhile to get going as a major league pitcher. However, he has developed into a star over the past few years. While the number two for the Indians, Carrasco projects as the best pitcher on over half the teams in baseball. The Indians are lucky to have such a formidable one-two punch that can match up with any other team.
Carrasco does an excellent job of mixing all of his pitches and strikes out well over a batter per inning while walking very few. This coupled with his ability to keep the ball on the ground and in the park make him one of the best and most complete pitchers in baseball. The big question for Carrasco will be whether he can pitch 200 innings for the second year in a row. While only projected for 175, anything over that will be a significant boost to the club.
Trevor Bauer has long been a tantalizing young pitcher since getting drafted third overall out of UCLA in 2011. The Indians received Bauer back in 2012 as their primary return for Shin-Soo Choo in the three-team trade with the Reds and Diamondbacks. Bauer has flashed star potential but has only been an average pitcher for the Indians since they acquired him. An average pitcher with potential for more is never a bad piece to have though.
After his most successful campaign of his career last year, Bauer spent the off-season trying to replicate Kluber’s slurve and Marcus Stroman‘s slider. This coupled with the other improvements he has already made have many believing that Bauer is poised for a breakout season in 2018. The projections, however, believe he will be roughly the same pitcher he’s been the past couple of seasons.
The Indians would likely be happy with a repeat performance from Bauer, but the potential for more is exciting. Bauer has the talent to take the next step he just needs to find a way to limit the free passes and keep the ball in the park a little more. If he can do that, this rotation could be scary good this year.
Josh Tomlin
Josh Tomlin enters 2018 in the last year of his contract at a very reasonable $3 million. At this price, Tomlin does not have to do much to be valuable to the club. However, the projections are not in love with Tomlin and don’t expect much from him this season. The combined forecast above only has him as primarily a replacement level player.
Tomlin doesn’t strike a lot of batters out which limits his ceiling, but he also doesn’t walk many guys which raises his floor. Tomlin’s biggest issue is his struggle with limiting home runs. Tomlin doesn’t have premium stuff and lives around the plate, giving hitters the opportunity to square up on the ball and hit more pitches out of the park.
All of the projections see Tomlin as a below average starter in 2018. However, if he can eat some innings throughout the season and provide good depth, the Indians will be fine. The Indians shouldn’t have much trouble with winning the division this season so it will be vital for them to prepare themselves for another postseason run. As long as the more talented pitchers on the roster are healthy and ready to go come October, Tomlin shouldn’t have to provide any meaningful innings in the playoffs.
Danny Salazar is the real wild card of this rotation. When he is healthy, and at his best, he is nearly as good as Carrasco and Bauer. However, health and consistency have been quite the bugaboos in his career to this point. After being delayed in spring training due to shoulder inflammation, Salazar is going to begin the season on the DL.
With Salazar’s health already in question, it’s hard to predict how much he will be able to contribute. Salazar is only projected for 128 innings this season, and that may even be optimistic at this point. The team’s first priority will be to get him on the field, then they can worry about his production.
Despite the injury concerns, the projections show how right Salazar might be when he is actually on the mound. Salazar is projected to strike out a preposterous 11 batters per nine innings, which is the third highest expected mark among starting pitchers. His walk rate still appears to be far too high, but if he could get that in check, he could easily be one of the best pitchers in baseball on a batter per batter basis.
As long as Salazar can get completely healthy and contribute to the rotation down the stretch and into the playoffs, the Indians should be satisfied. However, if his shoulder issue turns out to just be a blip and he can stay healthy the rest of the year, it could be another special season in Cleveland.
Mike Clevinger is the relative newcomer to the rotation. After starting in 10 games in 2016 and 21 last year, Clevinger will get his first opportunity to hold down a rotation spot for the entire season. Clevinger was successful last year as a swing-man, but the projections see him taking a step back as a full-time starter. However, if he can keep striking out a batter an inning and reign in the walks, he could be another quality starter for this Indians rotation.
As it stands now, Clevinger is projected to be roughly a league average starting pitcher. As the fourth or fifth guy in a rotation that still provides excellent value to the team. He will have to cut down on the walks to continue to be successful, but the stuff is there to be a positive contributor to the team. Clevinger provides another league-average floor with immense upside to an already stacked rotation.
Most teams that have historical statistical seasons typically regress the next season. So much has to go right to have a season like that that its hard to do it two years in a row. It doesn’t necessarily mean that the team gets worse, it’s just hard to sustain historic levels of performance. The 2018 Cleveland Indians will likely do the same.
Whether it be injury or under-performance, something will likely happen to keep them from duplicating their record-setting level from a year ago. That being said, there are ways that this rotation could improve in 2018. It’ll be fun to see how things shake out for the Indians, but either way, it should be an exciting year.
