Boston Red Sox: Will Bobby Dalbec walk the same path as Michael Chavis?
After a season mostly lost to injury, can former top 5 prospect Bobby Dalbec climb back up the rankings? Michael Chavis may have shown him the way.
2017 was a fascinating year for Boston Red Sox fans for a number of reasons. Unfortunately, not a lot of them happened on the farm. For all of the success at the major league level and all of the exciting players who spent the year at Fenway, the minor league depth chart had been horribly thinned out through trades and graduations.
The system’s top prospect, Rafael Devers, rocketed through AA and a brief stop at AAA Pawtucket before ascending to his rightful place manning third base with the Green Monster looming in the distance. After that, it was mostly disappointments like Jay Groome’s inconsistency and injury issues or the tragic passing of Daniel Flores.
One of the few bright spots was Michael Chavis who was selected 26th overall by the Red Sox in the 2014 draft. He spent the following two seasons either injured or underperforming and was mostly written off as a bust. But 2017 was a different story.
Chavis posted a .318/.388/.641 slash line in high-A Salem with 17 home runs in just 59 games. After a promotion to AA, he clocked another 14 bombs putting himself back on the radar. With spring training winding down, who could be that guy in 2018?
Enter Bobby Dalbec:
Dalbec was drafted by the Red Sox in 2016. He was selected with the 12th pick of the 4th round as a third baseman. Though he was also a starting pitcher for the University of Arizona, the Sox opted to have him focus on hitting.
While playing for the Lowell Spinners of the NYPL, Dalbec wowed spectators posting an absolutely Ruthian statline. Yes, “Ruthian” is almost always hyperbole, but in this case, it fits. Dalbec went .386/.427/.674 with seven home runs, 33 RBIs, and 13 doubles in just 34 games.
That was good for a 224 wRC+ or 124% better than league average. That’s insane. Babe Ruth himself only had three seasons in his career where he matched or exceeded that number. Of course, we’re talking about a small sample at the lowest level that college draftees usually see. So take it with a heap of salt.
Swing and a miss:
What we can take from it, however, is that Dalbec’s power is real, and his potential at the plate is substantial. So what happened after that?
Dalbec entered the 2017 season as Boston’s number 5 prospect according to Eric Longehagen, who had this to say:
“Dalbec entered his junior year at Arizona as a potential first-round pick. He had arguably the most raw power in the entire draft and was athletic enough to project as a viable defensive third baseman.”
Unfortunately, as Longenhagen also pointed out, Dalbec has a lot of swing and miss in his game — something that would be on display for all of 2017. Spending most of the season in Greenville (A-ball), he amassed a staggering 37.4% strikeout rate.
Last season at the major league level only two players came close to that mark. Chris Davis got punched out 37.2 percent of the time and Joey Gallo at 36.8%. It’s possible to survive a rate that high, but it is difficult. And if he’s striking out 37 percent of the time in A-ball, he’s almost assuredly going to strike out more at higher levels.