Arizona Diamondbacks: Top 10 Rookie-Eligible Prospects for 2018
We have reached the point of the offseason where prospect lists abound. We continue our top 10 prospects for every team with the Arizona Diamondbacks!
Our team top 10 prospect lists at Call to the Pen are spearheaded by Benjamin Chase. Today, he gives us the top ten prospects for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
This season, we will be going through teams by division, in order of 2017 record. The AL East will be first, followed by the AL Central and AL West. Then the focus will shift to the National League in the same order.
The format will be as it was last season for the same lists, with a system review, which will include last season’s list. The top 10 will follow in reverse order, two players per page in order to give adequate space to each player. Major trades or international signings will lead to an updated top 10!
Finally, don’t go away after #1 is revealed as each list will also contain a player either signed in the 2017 international free agent class or drafted in 2017 that isn’t part of the top 10 and should be tracked. Last season’s mentions in that area made over half of the top 10s this season, so this is a great way to get to know a player who could be making a big splash in the organization.
System overview
For a number of years now, the Arizona Diamondbacks have been seen as one of the worst farm systems in all of baseball. Making some short-sighted moves to compete really hurt their organizational depth, and that has just recently begun to rebound with some quality drafting and international work. In their pursuit of the 2017 National League Wild Card, for instance, the Diamondbacks did not give up a single player that I would have rated in my top 10 for the team to acquire J.D. Martinez.
While it takes time to develop a few standouts that show themselves from their peers in a system and jump up top 100 lists as a nationally-recognized top prospect, the Diamondbacks are getting to that point as well as they’ve seen a few players begin to get recognition this offseason as “sleeper” prospects to watch in 2018.
Arizona Diamondbacks fans can rest more soundly on their farm system this offseason as they may still end up ranked in the bottom 10 in baseball, but the arrow is strongly pointing up.
Let’s take a look at that system….
Next: #9 and #10
10. Anfernee Grier, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 10/13/1995 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Kane County Cougars
2017 Stats: .251/.340/.331, 547 PA, 4 HR, 30 SB, 58/114 BB/K
Info: I often use the 10th spot in a list to highlight a player who has either gone unnoticed by some or underrated in national views on the teams’ system, and just a year after the Arizona Diamondbacks drafted Grier as the 39th overall selection out of Auburn, he certainly qualifies as a guy worthy of a mention at a #10 slot in that mold.
Grier was one of the most impressive athletes on any field he was on
Seemingly lost in the hype over his incredible athleticism last season was the constant refrain from pro scouts and Arizona staff that discussed Grier’s need for development due to being much more raw in his baseball refinement than a typical college draftee. He showed both the highs and lows of that raw-ness in 2017.
The highs were definite highs as Grier was one of the most impressive athletes on any field he was on. He stole 30 bases and continues to steal bases at almost a perfect 75% success rate. He lowered his strikeout rate while bringing up his walk rate significantly.
On the flip side, his lows left plenty wondering exactly what type of player he could become. He truly lost all ability to generate impact on the ball. His routes in center field were rough enough that even his plus speed couldn’t overcome them at times. He also struggled to make adjustments in at bats with pitchers.
Grier worked hard in fall instructs on his swing with Arizona Diamondbacks coaches and feels he’s got his power stroke back, and if he can combine that with the improved plate discipline of 2017, he could make a big impact starting in high-A in 2018.
9. Taylor Clarke, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 5/13/1993 (24)
2017 teams/levels played for: AA Jackson Generals, AAA Reno Aces
2017 Stats: 27 GS, 145 IP, 3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.7% BB, 23% K
Info: Clarke has been making plenty of ripples since the Arizona Diamondbacks drafted him in the 3rd round in 2015 out of College of Charleston. He reached AA in 2016 and opened there in 2017.
While he’s moved quickly, Clarke’s stuff doesn’t exactly blow hitters away. He works with a fastball that sits 91-93, but he gets excellent plane on the pitch and knows how to take away and add velocity to the pitch and manipulate movement on it as well.
His slider is his best secondary pitch, an above-average pitch at its best. His change and curve are average, but he is able to sequence and locate all four pitches well to keep hitters off balance and the ball off of the barrel of opponents’ bats.
Clarke’s ceiling isn’t extremely high, likely peaking as a mid-rotation starter, but his floor is quite high already, and he could challenge for a spot at the back of the Arizona Diamondbacks rotation by the end of the season, and he could be a solid back end guy for quite a while with his competitive drive and sequencing.
Next: #7 and #8
8. Matt Tabor, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 7/14/1998 (19)
2017 teams/levels played for: Arizona Rookie League Diamondbacks
2017 Stats: 4 GS, 4 2/3 IP, 1.93 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 0% BB, 39.1% K
Info: Tabor was a late riser up draft boards in 2017, with some helium as a possibility in the late first round. The Arizona Diamondbacks were quite happy to lock him down in the 3rd round.
A growth spurt aided in Tabor going from 5’11” to 6’2″ between his junior and senior seasons of high school, and that added size and muscle to his frame that came with the growth spurt took his fastball from sitting in the upper 80s and touching 93 to sitting 92-94 and touching 95-96 by the draft.
Tabor works with an easy, simple delivery that he can repeat that allows him to command and control well, and he shows advanced feel for manipulating his pitches for variation in movement and velocity both. He has a plus change that he can throw with multiple grips and keep arm deception with his fastball, allowing him to get plenty of swing and miss on the pitch.
He went from a hard curve in high school to a slider as a pro, and the pitch already as flashes of plus potential, and he did unleash a few of the curves in fall instructs, so it’s still a weapon in his pocket when he wants to use it.
Tabor’s advanced feel for adjusting his pitch grips and pace on the mound to throw off a hitter could allow him to move quickly, but he will likely build up pro innings in 2018, opening the season in Arizona Diamondbacks extended spring and heading out to a short-season affiliate after that.
7. Marcus Wilson, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/15/1996 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Kane County Cougars
2017 Stats: .295/.383/.446, 445 PA, 9 HR, 15 SB, 55/90 BB/K
Info: The Arizona Diamondbacks knew when they drafted Wilson out of high school in 2014 that he would be a “project”, likely taking time to develop, and he has been. In 2017, much of that work in complex leagues came to fruition as he showed out very well in full season ball.
(Wilson’s) batting average and on base were among the leaders in the Midwest League
Wilson’s overall stat line may not blow anyone away, as 9 home runs and 15 steals isn’t exactly the type of numbers to write home about, but his batting average and on base were among the leaders in the Midwest League, and for a project player to take such large steps with his plate discipline is extremely notable.
Offensively, Wilson has above-average raw power, though he had some nagging injuries in the second half that didn’t keep him out long but slowed him at the plate, so when viewing his season output, it’s notable that 8 of his 9 home runs came in the first half of the season before he was fighting through fatigue and injury on a nearly daily basis.
Defensively, Wilson has the arm to handle any outfield position, but he has the speed and instincts to handle center field right now, so that’s where he’ll stick until he outgrows the position.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have to be pleased with his first full season, and they’ll likely give Wilson a shot to enjoy the hitter-friendly California League with high-A Visalia to open 2018.
Next: #5 and #6
6. Drew Ellis, 3B
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 12/1/1995 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: short-season A-ball Hillsboro Hops
2017 Stats: .227/.327/.403, 208 PA, 8 HR, 3 SB, 24/45 BB/K
Info: Everyone knew about Brendan McKay on the 2017 Louisville squad, but in nearly all statistical categories, the best hitter on the team was Ellis. The Arizona Diamondbacks grabbed him in the 2nd round and jumped him all the way to their short-season A-ball club, where he fared well initially, but he showed the length of his college season as he began to slump with a slower bat toward the end of the minor league season.
Ellis has definite plus power, though his approach can get out of whack at times, as he can get his top half ahead of his lower half or vice versa. When his swing is in sync, he generates loud contact throughout the park, with good zone recognition, but some issues with high-level breaking stuff in pitch recognition.
There were loud doubts about Ellis’ ability to handle the hot corner that likely helped drop him to the 2nd round, but he showed in pro ball that he has the hands and first step at the position to at least be an average defender there, if not better than that due to his good feel playing toward the line and above-average arm with plus accuracy.
After the struggle to finish 2017, it will be interesting to see how Ellis is placed by the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2018. He’ll most likely be in an A-ball league, but whether that’s low-A or high-A will be an interesting spring decision.
5. Daulton Varsho, C
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 7/2/1996 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: short-season A-ball Hillsboro Hops
2017 Stats: .311/.368/.534, 212 PA, 7 HR, 7 SB, 17/30 BB/K
Info: Varsho began to jump up some draft boards toward the end of his college season due to an incredible college season. The Arizona Diamondbacks selected Varsho with the 68th overall selection in June.
many have felt (Varsho’s) bat is so good that he should possibly move to another position other than catcher to save his knees and utilize his above-average speed
Varsho is the son of former MLB outfielder Gary Varsho, and he has more athleticism than a typical catcher, and many have felt his bat is so good that he should possibly move to another position other than catcher to save his knees and utilize his above-average speed.
Behind the plate, he uses his athleticism to move well laterally and position well for blocking, and in spite of an average arm, he has quick feet that allow him to still work well in the running game.
His swing, plate discipline, and raw above-average power along with his above-average speed could push the Arizona Diamondbacks to a decision about his future position as soon as the end of 2018, when he’ll likely start in high-A, but he could finish the year in the upper minors, knocking on the big league doorstep.
Next: #3 and #4
4. Taylor Widener, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 10/24/1994 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Tampa Yankees
2017 Stats: 27 GS, 119 1/3 IP, 3.39 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.2% BB, 26.4% K
Info: Widener bounced around in his role during college between rotation and bullpen, never really settling at one or the other, primarily due to a collection of injuries during his college career. The Yankees snagged him in the 12th round of the 2016 draft, liking his raw arm.
Widener benefited from the Yankees throwing program, seeing his fastball sit 92-94, touching 97 with incredible life on the pitch. His best secondary pitch is a slider that works well in the low-80s with tremendous late break that gets a ton of swing and miss.
His change is a pitch that has taken a big step forward, with Widener able to manipulate the pitch’s velocity and movement. He also uses a curve, but that works more as a “show me” fourth pitch right now.
While his future role is tough to determine, Widener could be a solid #3 starter or be a very good option as a multi-inning reliever. The Arizona Diamondbacks got him from the Yankees in the three-way Steven Souza deal, and they will likely open him at AA in 2018 to see what they have in him for future role.
3. Jasrado Chisholm, SS
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 2/1/1998 (20)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Kane County Cougars
2017 Stats: .248/.325/.358, 125 PA, 1 HR, 3 SB, 10/39 BB/K
Info: The Arizona Diamondbacks signed Chisholm out of the Bahamas in 2015 for $200K. He’s shown very well since coming into the Diamondbacks system, with a ton of praise from scouts who have had to face him.
Chisholm battled through a major knee injury in 2017, which limited his time on the field, but even then he showed enough to excite those who saw him from 2016, showing physical growth and improved pitch recognition that impressed those in attendance.
For a guy who maybe weighs 180 pounds at 5’11”, Chisholm swings with the veracity of a guy who is trying to destroy every baseball near him. When he connects, he generates big power, but he can get too locked into trying to drive balls and end up swinging and missing on stuff out of the zone.
Chisholm has average speed, but above-average quickness, and as he physically develops, he could build his speed as he shows excellent athletic movements at short and good hands at the position.
Like any teenager (now 20 year-old), Chisholm has maturity/discipline things to work on at the plate and in the field that will allow him to take leaps forward as he figures them out. Whether the Arizona Diamondbacks have him work on that back at low-A after missing so much time in 2017 or bump him up to high-A will depend a lot on what he shows in spring.
Next: #1 and #2
2. Jon Duplantier, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 7/11/1994 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Kane County Cougars, high-A Visalia Rawhide
2017 Stats: 25 G, 24 GS, 136 IP, 1.39 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 8% BB, 31.3% K
Info: Duplantier was a guy who was impressive in college when he was on the hill for Rice, but he struggled so frequently with injury that no one really knew what he would be coming out of school, which was how he fell to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 3rd round of the draft that season.
After being drafted, he ended up only being able to log one inning before injury messed up the rest of his summer. He finally got on the mound in 2017, and it really could not have gone any better. Duplantier led all of the minor leagues with his ERA, and only Justin Verlander in 2005 has had a lower ERA over the last 25 years.
On the hill, Duplantier has a bit of funk to his delivery due to an odd arm action, but he can repeat it well. His fastball sits 92-94, touching 96-97 with run on both his two-seam and four-seam heaters. His hard curve is a wicked pitch that gets plenty of weak swings, and he showed a slider in 2017 that was flashing plus by the end of the season with some wipeout quality. His change is typically his fourth pitch, but he can locate it well and really does well generating arm deception.
Due to his injury history, some still see Duplantier as a future reliever, but he’s shown the possibility of being a front-line starter with further building of his innings base. He’ll likely be placed in AA to open in 2018 by the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he could end up in AAA by the end of the year.
1. Pavin Smith, 1B
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 2/6/1996 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: short-season A-ball Hillsboro Hops
2017 Stats: .318/.401/.415, 222 PA, 2 SB, 27/24 BB/K
Info: Widely considered the best pure hitter in the 2017 draft, the Arizona Diamondbacks snapped up the Virginia first baseman with the 7th overall selection in the June draft.
Smith has an excellent approach at the plate, with impressive plate discipline
Smith has an excellent approach at the plate, with impressive plate discipline, rarely ever striking out. He has a short, quick swing that produces plenty of loud contact, but he swings level and generates a lot of line drives to the wall at this point.
While he didn’t hit a single regular-season home run, Smith did hit one in the postseason in his pro debut. Many scouts believed that Smith would develop power in the pro game after tailoring his swing in college primarily to avoid making outs.
The Arizona Diamondbacks will have an interesting decision with Smith due to the presence of Paul Goldschmidt. If he can play the outfield, he could end up in a corner spot as soon as 2019, but Goldschmidt’s contract is up after 2019. He’ll likely open either at high-A or AA this season.
Next: Newcomer to watch
2017 Acquisition: Kristian Robinson, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 12/11/2000 (17)
2017 teams/levels played for: none
2017 Stats: none
Info: The Arizona Diamondbacks have turned a trip to see Lucius Fox in the Bahamas to two very valuable signings in their system as they discovered shortstop Jazz Chisholm in that workout and also a young Robinson, who they signed for a $2.5 million bonus this past July 2nd.
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Robinson’s raw size belies his age at 16 years old, as he has the physical size and athleticism of someone in their early 20s. He has the potential to have five-tool above-average production due to this depth of athleticism as he develops.
At the plate, Robinson has plus to plus-plus raw power with good recognition of offspeed pitches in showcases. He is able to go with location and pound out hits to the opposite field already, an impressive skill for a teen. His speed is certainly plus, though he’s definitely raw on the bases, and he will need to work on his reads to be an impact base stealer.
Defensively, he’s currently a center fielder due to his speed, but as he develops physically, he could end up sliding over to a corner, where his fringe-plus arm could definitely be an asset.
Obviously, any player coming from a Latin American country will have development time, which means Robinson will be in one of the Arizona Diamondbacks rookie clubs, either DSL or AZL to open 2018, but he should be a fun player to track with his skill set.
Next: CTTP's Top 150 prospects
So that is the Arizona Diamondbacks top 10 prospects for 2018. Who is too high? Too low? Missing entirely from the list? Comment below!!