Yankees most intriguing questions as the 2018 season starts

The Yankees look like they are in for a successful season. And like the start to every year, there are several interesting questions surrounding the team as it breaks camp. Here are some of the ones of most importance to the team, and the fans.

The Yankees, and Major League Baseball, are just about ready to start the season. And the boys from the Bronx have every reason to think it will be a good one.

As we head towards first pitch, however, there are a number of questions of interest to the team, as well as the readers. Some are important and some are not, and most will not determine the season. But they will shape it.

Here, now, are some of the questions people seem most interested in, along with my predictions. As readers know, I am uniquely qualified to make these assertions as I have never been wrong in any of my projections.

Wackford Squeers, freelance Ombudsmen, here. Just a spot of bother; it seems as if Mr. Claus has forgotten one or two ever-so-small details.

He has, at one time or another, predicted that both Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres would win their respective positions out of spring training, and that the Yankees would add a starting pitcher by now. I hope not to come across as an overly-fastidious prig of a pedagogue, but I felt it best to clarify.

So, with full confidence, let’s start with one of pure interest only:

Who will Hit the Most Home Runs on the Team?

The obvious front-runner has to be Giancarlo Stanton. Players usually become the best versions of themselves with a few years of experience in the MLB. That was true of Mickey Mantle, and it was true for Stanton.

Giancarlo had arguably his best season last year, hitting .281/.376/.631, with his oft-mentioned Universe-leading 59 home runs.

And even if some of that was attributable to being in a line-up with two other dangerous hitters, Marcel Ozuna (37 HR) and Christian Yelich (18 HR, 36 DBL), Stanton moves into an even more loaded line-up this year.

The other big factor in his favor is his spot in the batting order as Aaron Judge will be hitting behind 8-9-1, and is likely to be up far more often with no one on than Stanton.

That will allow pitchers to work around Aaron disproportionately to Giancarlo, a strategy that plays to one of Judge’s strengths: OBP. That seems clear enough as Aaron tied Mike Trout for first in AL On-Base Percentage last year (.422).

This should mean Stanton routinely finds himself up with at least one man on. That will only put more pressure to pitch to Giancarlo, increasing his chances to hit home runs.

But there are two other good, and obvious, candidates.

Judge and Sanchez

In Judge’s favor is his easy, almost superhuman power. The difference in his ability to hit home runs versus all the other so-called power hitters in baseball as evinced by last season’s HR Derby was stunning.

It was effortless. He barely broke a sweat. When it was over, Judge looked like a pitcher in Spring Training who finished his innings but still needed more time on a back field to get all of his work in. I think I was more tired from yelling than he was hitting.

That kind of power has not been seen in a long, long time, and makes all things possible. So, yes, Judge could easily lead the team in home runs.

The Sanchino

And so could Gary Sanchez. Remember his first half-season when he clobbered 20 home runs in just 51 games? Some fans were even saying he was the next Babe Ruth. Well, he did something the Babe never did, which was to hit 50 home runs in his first 161 games.

He is only the fourth catcher in history to accomplish the feat, the first since Mike Piazza. If he stays healthy for a whole year, he has as good a chance as the other two at leading the club. But even if that is not true, he might still prove to have the most overall dangerous bat in the lineup.

So who will lead the Yankees in home runs? Here’s the answer: Because Judge and his league-leading OBP will bat in front of Stanton, it is a certainty that Stanton will lead the team in home runs.

Readers should take the word, certainty, with a pinch of salt here, I must say. This is, after all, the same man who once wrote that baseball has a 27-man roster, when it always has had a 25-man. Felt it best to say something, there.

Now on to number two, and a question of slightly more import for the season.

Are We Really Seeing a New Tyler Wade?

Last season saw the end of one unsuccessful shot at the majors in Rob Refsnyder, and what looked like the start of another one in Tyler Wade. Looking overwhelmed at the plate and unsure in the field, Wade got just nine hits in 53 AB.

His numbers by the end of the season did not suggest someone coming back to the Bronx. His line of .222/.224/.446, along with his 19 SO and zero home runs reveals an impatient hitter with little ability to use the lumber.

Even his obvious speed was lost as he accounted for just 13 total bases (TB). It seemed he would come into camp with his job already lost.

But even before Spring Training the Yankees were saying we did not see the real Tyler Wade last year. They—and he—vowed we would see that man in this year’s camp, the same one who hit .310/.382/.460 at Triple-A last season. And who collected 105 hits in 339 AB’s, adding up to 156 TB.

Turns out, they were right.

Good and Getting Better

The 2018 version of Wade has looked much better, so far, hitting .273/.400/.386. Four of his 12 hits have been for extra bases, and he now has 17 TB in only 44 AB. His confidence is high, and his smooth play has him looking like the most athletic player in the infield.

But it is still just spring training; how will this Wade do when the games are for real?

What will happen after he gets struck out on a nasty breaking ball by David Price? Will he crater? Or will he come back and work a walk, steal a bag and score on a single? And even if his confidence stays high, does he have the raw talent to succeed at the major league level?

Are we really seeing a better Tyler Wade?

I think we are, at least in terms of OBP and TB. Wade still does not strike me as a very good major league hitter, but between his walks and bunting, he should get on somewhere in the mid-.300’s. And as the fastest player on the team, he will be first up to pinch-run in any game he does not start.

If he can equal Gardy’s .350 on-base percentage from 2017, along with his excellent defense, the team will have an above league-average player. Which is precisely what is going to happen. There might be better players coming through the system, but Wade will hold up his end in the interim.

But now that we know which Wade the Yankees are getting, the question becomes, what about Aaron Hicks?

The Tools are Still in the Box

Aaron Hicks has all the tools and potential to be a very good MLB player. However, while his defense has never been a question, if he doesn’t put it all together this year offensively, he will likely see his window close with the Yankees.

With that full understanding, Hicks came into camp proclaiming he was in the best shape of his life. A new trainer had made his core stronger and his body faster. Like Wade, he entered camp with complete confidence.

Yankees fans, not so much.

If he were 23 or 24, his 2017 line of .266/.372/.475 with 15 HR and 18 doubles would look very promising. But Hicks was 27. And those were all career highs. His age and years in the league (5) say to me he is the player he is going to be. In fact, I would actually expect some regression to the mean.

Hicks could still be valuable if his OBP were to stay as high, but every point he loses reduces his worth. Unless, of course, he can replace getting on for getting more out of each hit. Hitting two DBL’s and HR during Spring Training is suggestive, but far from conclusive.

Spring Training, or the Start of A Trend?

Spring Training numbers are usually meaningless for a returning starter with five years experience, but that is not entirely true for Aaron. Yes, he has the starting center fielder’s job but he is also still in his prove it to the Yankees phase, especially with their outfield depth.

That makes his ST numbers interesting but still not relevant. But if he continues to hit .212/.357/.391, then the Yanks will see his spring as a part of the larger narrative. And then the depth chart will change. So, will it?

This is a tough one. But I just don’t believe in Aaron Hicks.

I like that he has two home runs and two doubles in ST, but I still see him as more potential than production. He will not do as well as he did last year and, at some point this season, start to be used in match-up situations only. If they can, the Yankees will eventually replace him.

And you know it’s true because, while I have perhaps been wrong about some things, I have never been wrong about Aaron Hicks.

Oh, dreadfully sorry to barge in, but I feel I must object. Mr. Claus has more than once written that Mr. Hicks has only one more year remaining until free agency, when in fact that number is two. I do hope people will remember this when reading these or any other statements contained herein.

I especially hope Mr. Claus will remember this, if I might be so bold.

But whether or not Hicks falters, the Yankees will see players emerge from the minors throughout the season. Whether that will be because of injury or upgrades, these are the players currently in the minors who will definitely impact the club in 2018.

A Lot of Tylers This Year

Yankees fans know by now that both Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar are going to get time in the majors this year. Both men swing high impact bats too valuable to leave in Scranton. And Torres is penciled in as the second baseman of the near future.

But Yankees fans will certainly see more than just these two faces. However, some of the ones they might have seen have departed the organization, such as P Nestor Cortes (Orioles) and OF Jake Cave (Twins-AAA).

That still leaves some familiar faces. The Yankees are already intimating that Tyler Austin will come back, with Bird out until June.

But pushing him this year will be Billy McKinney. McKinney came over two years ago in the same deal that brought Torres and seems to have finally finished developing, as suggested by Danny Knobler of Bleacher Report:

It turns out maybe Billy McKinney is better than marginal, that maybe he’s just one of those players who needed a while to develop, one of those guys who will eventually get a chance and justify that first-round pick and those big trades. “Big league ready,” said two scouts who have seen him. “It’s just quality at-bat after quality at-bat,” new Yankees manager Aaron Boone said, according to Randy Miller of NJ.com. “He’s really impressed me all the way around.”

The Yankees have played him at first and corner outfield, creating multiple opportunities. And at some point this season they are going to want to see if his bat really plays or not.

Of Great Utility

That’s going to be true for UI Thairo Estrada once he recovers. A tremendous four-tool player, his lack of power is commensurate with many other infielders. However, he can play defense as good as Wade, and probably hit a lot better.

For example, each man was 21 when he played his one full season at Double-A Trenton. Wade did so in 2016, hitting .259/.352/.349 to go with five home runs and 16 doubles.

Estrada just finished his age 21 season with the Thunder, and he finished with a .301/.353/.392 slash, along with eight home runs and 18 doubles. One big difference, though, is that Estrada collected his power numbers in approximately 50 fewer AB.

Once he is up and running, and gets some seasoning in Scranton, he will become a legitimate backup called up at least by September. He might be seen sooner depending on injury and effectiveness, but he will make an appearance this year.

Position players are easier to see coming; it’s the pitchers who are difficult.

The Depth is Too Deep

The Yankees have so far stood pat with their starting pitching. So, if and when they need them, who will the Bombers call on from the farm?

Of course this list starts with Luis Cessa and Domingo German. But that is no bold prediction as both were used last year, Cessa as a starter. But Domingo was sent down specifically so he could stay stretched out, and Cessa is just reliable enough. They are the next two replacement starters right now.

Both Ben Heller and Giovanny Gallegos have already been used out of the pen, Heller for each of the last two seasons. Each will likely find a handful of innings this year, again.

Beyond those, the waters get a little murkier.

Justus Sheffield pitched a shortened season at Double-A Trenton last year and, in Spring Training, looked like a pitcher who still needs another full year of development. Dillon Tate looks to be behind him and even more in need of additional time. Chance Adams remains an enigma.

That leaves little in the way of starting pitching depth. I’m not saying one of those three could not become big league ready by July or August, just that it looks very doubtful right now.

Spitting Hot Fire

Bullpen arms, however, might be attached to some new faces. Most notably has to be Domingo Acevedo; here’s part of MLB’s scouting report:

Acevedo’s fastball has been clocked as high as 103 mph, though he usually works from 93-97 mph as a starter, which is even tougher to hit because of the funkiness and angle his 6-foot-7 frame and low three-quarters arm slot create. That slot makes it tough for him to stay on top of his mid-80s slider, which may never be more than an average offering. He compensates with a plus changeup that he locates well and is effective against both left-handers and right-handers. For an extra-large guy with a lot of velocity, Acevedo throws a surprising amount of strikes.

He has a big right arm but only two reliable pitches right now. That sounds exactly like a reliever.

Acevedo was almost invisible at spring training, outside of a few brief, private words he and I shared at the practice field one morning. But he will appear at The Stadium at some point this season.

That is highly possible for Cody Carroll, as well.

Look at Me

No player took more advantage of his opportunity to play in front of the Yankees manager than Carroll, who already had impressive numbers. Last season Cody struck out 89 batters in 69 IP, while walking only 30, which helped him put up a 2.54 ERA for the year.

Even those numbers, however, would leave a pitcher who had only half a season at Double-A too far down the depth chart.

But, after catching Boone’s eye, if he continues to strike batters out at such a high rate now at Triple-A, Carroll will be called up as a reliever to let other projected starters stay in their minor-league rotations.

This from the be-stubbled Brendan Kuty at NJ.com back in February:

Unprompted, Yankees manager Aaron Boone singled out a pitcher he thought looked good on Monday. “Especially Caroll at the end there,” Boone said. “Even though he gave up the home run, I thought that getting in there the first time, he looked really good to me. I actually thought he had the [called third strike] in that last inning, but he didn’t get the call.” He has touched triple digits with his fastball. He turned heads in the Arizona Fall League, throwing 11 2/3 scoreless innings while striking out 18.

Cody will have to be added to the 40-man to be called up, but the two moves would work together anyway. The only reason the Yanks would need another arm is if a player such as Chasen Shreve failed to perform. In that case, Shreve would be cut from the team and the roster, leaving an opening for Carroll.

All About the Roster

The only other name of interest is Albert Abreu. He seems too inexperienced, having never pitched above A-Ball, but his place on the 40-man might necessitate an emergency call-up.

And that is the entire list of all the minor league players who will significantly impact the club this year.

Oh my. While that statement might end up as the truth, I cannot encourage the readers enough to colour their expectations. In his defence, Mr. Claus is often correct but, as much as it pains me to say so, just as often incorrect. I suggest we all proceed with caution.

Now on the topic du jour: How much, if at all, will Greg Bird play for the Yankees in 2018?

Feets, Don’t Fail Me Now

Ever since the Yankees stocked their system with top-ranked talent, the question has always been: Which of these prospects will work out and which will not? The odds have told us all along that some of these talented players would not live up to expectations.

When Sanchez was stuck in Double-A, it looked like he would be one such player. When Judge endured epic struggles two years ago, he looked like a bust; the same could be said of Severino.

But now we are getting the real answers. Both Clint Frazier and, more importantly, Greg Bird are starting to slip away. That does not mean these men are done as players by any stretch. The warning signs, however, are starting to get a lot bigger.

I used to think of Clint as the greater Slade Heathcott, a man who could play with savagery but was big enough to take the pounding. Now he’s just starting to look like the regular Heathcott, minus the personal demons. But it is way too early to make any judgments on Frazier.

Once is An Accident, Twice is a Pattern

Bird, however, might be entering the end. We’ve seen it before, haven’t we? There are just some players who start their careers getting hurt and never stop. Is Bird that guy? Is he just too brittle for baseball?

There certainly are players who started their careers dealing with nagging injuries who then went on to have healthy, long-term runs. But that is not the norm. Usually, when a player has recurring injuries in a vital area—back, feet, shoulders for pitchers—he is on a downward path that there is no returning from.

Ask Greg Odom. Or Larry Bird. And of course Yankees fans remember the great Don Mattingly. At least those last two had their glory years before their chronic injuries; the Gregs have not been as lucky. And we know what happened to Greg number one.

Bird, however, still has a chance. He has played and played well. That, along with his salary as well as depth at the position for no additional cost, makes him worth waiting on…for now.

And now is all we are concerned about here. Will he contribute this season? I say yes.

My guess is that Bird comes back by the All-Star break and again plays well. But the chance that he makes it to, or better yet through, the playoffs seems unlikely. We haven’t seen a stretch of quality play longer than six weeks from Bird in years now. Why would that suddenly change?

There is of course the possibility that this surgery makes a final repair and Bird’s ankle heals permanently. This is, however, becoming a less and less likely scenario.

Which brings us to our last but not least interesting and impactful question heading into the new season.

Yankees Emeritus

Brett Gardner is the longest tenured home grown Yankee and beloved by his teammates. The fans are not quite so enamored.

Gardy is of course respected throughout Yankees universe for heart and hustle, but he has too often under-deployed his best asset, speed. And although he seems to have all the parts to be a prototypical lead-off hitter, the sum has never added up to great success.

That his career OBP is only .347 solves at least part of the equation.

Remember that the need for a true lead-off hitter is why the Yankees paid such a premium price four years ago for Jacoby Ellsbury. And they still need one today.

That doesn’t mean Gardy will not lead off some times, perhaps most; that, however, just underscores the problem. Last year Brett off-set some of his shortcomings by smacking a career-high 21 homers. But he hit just seven the year before and is probably going to hit somewhere between the two this year.

It is, however, his ability to work counts that has continued to put him in the top spot against most righties. That, and his speed once he is on. Tyler Wade, however, might be about to change that.

With Bird down, Wade might see his name in the line-up more than the Yankees thought. And if he can keep his OBP anywhere around .375, he will bring his even faster feet to the top of the order. His Spring Training on-base of .404 is encouraging, but it is still just ST.

The more pertinent number is the .222 OBP he put up last year with the Yanks.

But he’s not the only speedy player who can bat against righties; and Aaron Hicks can bat against lefties, as well.