Tale of Two Cities: Red Sox vs Yankees 2018

Red Sox and Yankees in extra-inning affairs

The Red Sox were a staggering 15-3 in extra inning games and 21-19 in one-run contests. The Yankees were 5-6 in extras and 18-26 in one-run games, meaning the Sox were the better team when the final score was close. The Yankees were far more likely to blow out their opponent, going 37-13 in games where the drama was done by the time the 9th rolled around.

The blowouts explain at least some of the difference in Pythag record, which the Yankees had a decisive advantage in. Finishing nine games below their expected wins is likely due, in part, to the 28 games in which they won by six runs or more. 

However, it cannot account for all of the difference so some improvement on that record could be expected even before making any changes to the roster.

And boy did they make changes to the roster.

Meet The New Yankees, Same As The Old Yankees

While the additions of Neil Walker and Brandon Drury were necessary for a team with holes at second and third (after the departure of Todd Frazier and the trades of Starlin Castro and Chase Headley), neither was a big move in and of itself.

The addition that had fans of the Bronx Bombers celebrating was the December trade for mammoth slugger Giancarlo Stanton. That’s because adding the only player in MLB who can compete with Aaron Judge for the exit velocity crown means the classic nickname for the team may never be more apt than it will be in 2018.

The Yankees also re-signed C.C. Sabathia, and Masahiro Tanaka activated his player option, ensuring the 2017 rotation would remain intact.

Meanwhile, north of Fairfield County, similar celebrations abounded in late February when the Red Sox finally inked J.D. Martinez to a five year deal with a couple of opt-outs built in. The Sox also re-signed Mitch Moreland and Eduardo Nunez meaning the 2018 offense would be nearly identical to the 2017 division winner, except for the addition of MLB’s slugging leader, “Flaco.”

So both teams made a significant addition to their lineups. How do their rosters shake out? We’ll use the depth charts at mlb.com for each team to take a look, and Fangraphs for projected WAR figures from Steamer. We will also refer to the positional rankings from this Fangraphs article. (There will be some modifications to account for minor injuries.)

Head To Head: Rotations

The Fangraphs staff picks had the Yankees as a slightly better rotation (starting pitching was ranked as a unit), but Steamer likes the Red Sox by about a half a win. I agree with Fangraphs here. While Chris Sale will be the best starter on either team, the Yankees will have three starters better than David Price, even if Price is healthy. That said, the Sox win the battle of the aces handily.

Both staffs have plenty of question marks as well. Price missed most of last year with elbow trouble, but Tanaka has that small UCL tear looming in the background. When Tanaka is right, however, he’s still dominant. I’m not sure David Price has the stuff to be that guy anymore, but he can still be very effective, as 2016 showed. Point Yankees.

Drew Pomeranz and Sonny Gray are similar pitchers regarding value, but they get there very differently. Neither throws that many innings on the season. Pomeranz reached 173 and ⅔ last season (a career high), while Gray threw just 162 and ⅓. Pomeranz strikes more batters out but walks more as well, and typically doesn’t go as deep into games

In 2017, Pomeranz averaged just over 5 and ⅓ innings per game while Gray was right a 6 IP per outing. The value difference here is likely to be minimal but seems to lean slightly in favor of New York.

Eduardo Rodriguez vs. C.C. Sabathia is an interesting comparison. One is young and just establishing himself while coming off of a stabilizing knee surgery and the other is at the tail end of his career and may have no cartilage left in his plant knee. Sabathia, once a fireballer, relies on secondary stuff to fool hitters these days while Rodriguez is still capable of, and more than happy to burn one by the batter. I’d bet on youth here and notch one for the Red Sox.

And bringing up the rear are Rick Porcello and Jordan Montgomery. Porcello, Cy Young award aside, is a solid back of the rotation innings eater. Montgomery showed he could be much of the same. Again, probably little difference between the two, but if push comes to shove, I’ll take Montgomery.

Beyond the starting five each team does have some depth lurking in the minors or perhaps in the bullpen if lack of options forces the issue. For the Red Sox names like Brian Johnson, Steven Wright, and Hector Velazquez provide a high floor, low ceiling spot starters, and injury insurance.

In the Bronx, it’s Domingo German, Luis Cessa and Ben Heller with a slew of hard-throwing high ceiling prospects ascending the ladder quickly. If injuries push the teams this far, the Yankees have a decided advantage, but we’re talking a cataclysmic level of bad luck here.

Overall, the Yankees come out ahead here.

Head to Head: The Bullpens

Like the rotations, the bullpens were ranked as a unit. Craig Kimbrel is the best reliever on either team. But that’s it. That’s all I’ve got for Red Sox fans. Carson Smith is in discussion with the next four Yankees relievers, but the quality drops way off in the Boston pen after that leading to a massive disparity in expected WAR whether you take Steamer’s numbers or mine.

This is one are where the Yankees are way ahead.

Head to Head: The Benches

What the Yankees gained in the battle of the bullpens, the Red Sox make up for here to some degree. Manager Alex Cora has higher quality bench options than Aaron Boone, and that should lead to Boston’s bench players getting more time on the field. As a counting stat, that means WAR totals for the Sox quartet should be higher.

Mitch Moreland will likely be more of a platoon partner than a backup at first base, and Eduardo Nunez will be the starter at second until Pedroia comes back sometime in late April. After that, Nunez will be the primary bat off the bench with Holt behind him, should he indeed be recovered from his vertigo issues.

The other factor here, which is not reflected in the table, is depth at the minor league level. The Red Sox will have Blake Swihart on the 25 man roster to start the year which gives the club about a month to decide between him and Holt. If Holt’s troubles return, Swihart will be his replacement, and he should provide similar value. Additionally, infielder Tzu-Wei Lin offers an excellent infield defense on the shuttle and first baseman Sam Travis was the team’s best hitter this spring and may have finally found his power stroke.

For the Yankees, it’s more high profile prospects in Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, and Clint Frazier when he recovers from his injury. For ceiling, the Yankees depth bats blow Boston’s away. But again, it would take a significant amount of bad injury luck for any of these players to see enough time on the field to tip the scales.

The Red Sox bench takes this one.

Head to Head: The Lineups (Infield)

I saved this for last because it is the most interesting, at least to me. Steamer has the Red Sox lineup as about a win more productive than New York’s. Before pulling this table together, I’d have assumed it would go the other way. Then I looked at the Red Sox batters’ numbers and concluded that they were too pessimistic.

Yes, that’s right. I said that Steamer projecting Boston’s lineup to be better was too pessimistic for the Sox.

At catcher, they have it right. I buy into Christian Vazquez’s new offensive output, so I think his WAR estimate was too low, but it doesn’t make a lot of difference against a slugger like Gary Sanchez. That bat is too much for a glove-first catcher to overcome.

First base would have been more interesting before the Greg Bird injury. He’s only supposed to miss 6-8 weeks, but given his history, I don’t think you can count on much from him this year. On the other side of the aisle, it’s Hanley Ramirez who, while hopefully healthy, also rarely plays a full season without getting banged up or worse. Even still, Hanley is more likely actually to be on the field.

Our second base battle is a bit harder to predict. Dustin Pedroia is coming off of a major knee surgery and, if healthy, should be a productive player. But how much of the lateral movement that made him a plus defender will remain? How much power will he get back and how long will it take for him to get his lower half back under him as he is swinging? Too many questions to pick him against Tyler Wade who has the benefit of youth supporting his excellent defensive skills.

Here’s where it starts getting fun for Red Sox fans. Xander Bogaerts is coming off of a rough 2017 season where his power was wrecked by a wrist injury. Fully healthy, expect a return to 2016 levels. Of course, his 2016 home run rate was likely a bit lucky, so I’m regressing his WAR total a bit to compensate. It’s still well more than Didi Gregorious is likely to amass, so the Red Sox chalk up a significant advantage here.

Third base is an area where I doubt many would pick the Yankees, but I still expect some disagreement on my projection for Rafael Devers. At just 21 years old, being this bullish on him may prove to be foolish, but I love everything I see from him at the plate. He shows poise, excellent barrelling skills, the ability to make adjustments mid-at-bat and can hit for power to all fields. Brandon Drury is a fine plug for the hole the Yankees had, but this one won’t be close.

Head To Head: The Lineups (Outfield)

Moving to the outfield, we have Andrew Benintendi and Brett Gardner. Benintendi is coming off of a rookie season in which he went 20/20. He’s primarily a pull hitter for power, which doesn’t play terribly well in Fenway, but learning to go the other way will help him tremendously.

He won’t start hitting home runs to left or straightaway center, but there are plenty of doubles and triples to be had out there, and he can get to them. Don’t expect a bump in home runs in 2018, but both his OBP and SLG are liable to come up, leading to his first All-Star caliber season.

Brett Gardner had, essentially, the season I was projecting for his counterpart last year, but at 34 years old could very well lose a step. He also produced power at a level he rarely has before, and I expect some regression.

The Red Sox take another.

Let’s skip over to right field for the moment. Here we have the 2016 runner-up for MVP and the 2017 runner-up on the other side. Both are young, and both are healthy. Mookie had a down year in 2017, but that seems to be mostly poor luck or, at least, correctable. He had 209 balls hit at 95 mph or higher (23 more than Judge) for 9th most in the majors but was 265th in Brls/PA (a measure of high-quality contact).

Red Sox new hitting coach

He was hitting the ball hard, but not at launch angles where that exit velocity could do the most damage. Enter Tim Hyers, new Red Sox hitting coach. Expect Mookie to start punishing the ball in the air more, and expect that to lead to more home runs, doubles and triples. I’m predicting a near-2016 season out of him. 2016 was likely his career best, but 2017 represented much more than just regression.

As for Judge, 2017 may well be a career year for him too, and you can expect regression in 2018. He’s still going to be an outstanding player, but pitchers appear to have found ways to attack him which neutralize his contact ability. He will likely have slumps as we saw in July and August. Perhaps not as long, but that hole in his swing is real, and it will rear its ugly head.

Betts, for his part, is an excellent contact hitter (5th lowest swinging strike rate in the majors last year) which means he’s less likely to go through those kinds of struggles. Expect him to look like Mike Trout-lite again, while The Judge regresses to merely being great.

Moving to center, Jackie Bradley Jr. is coming off his worst offensive season to date. He managed just a 90 wRC+ following two seasons in which he went 123 and 119 respectively. He had a knee bothering him all year, but like Bogaerts appears healthy again. Expect the bat to bounce back a bit.

Aaron Hicks broke out in a big way in 2017, amassing 3.3 fWAR in a little more than half a season’s at bats. He brings a significant amount of his value with the glove, however, and I don’t expect him to spend all season in the field. Giancarlo Stanton will eat into his playing time out there, which will limit his overall upside. Between that and a bit of regression, I have him finishing the year as being slightly less productive than JBJ.

Speaking of Stanton, his Steamer projection looks pretty close to me. He’ll see plenty of time at one of the corners allowing his athleticism to fuel his WAR a bit. He’s not blasting 60 HR again, but expect something in the 40-45 range and another run at the MVP.

Similiar fates

His Red Sox match-up, J.D. Martinez, should also see time in the corners, though mostly on the road. Unfortunately, his defense leaves a lot to be desired, so there won’t be any boon to his WAR by spending time out there. This battle goes to the Yankees on account of Stanton being freakishly athletic for a guy his size. The bats should play similarly, however.

What Does It All Mean, Basil?

For those of you keeping score at home, those WAR totals add up to 43.4 WAR for the Red Sox by Steamer, 56.1 from me. The Yankees have 42.6 by Steamer and 54.0 from me.

Both Steamer and my projections have the Red Sox edging out the Yankees for the division this year. Converting these figures to wins is relatively simple. We add 43, the theoretical replacement level for wins. That brings our totals to:

Boston Red Sox: 99-63

New York Yankees: 97-65

There you have it. The Red Sox will raise a third straight AL East banner, coming up just shy of 100 wins on the year.

Next: Sox bench crunch

And more importantly, with the bounce back years, we can expect from Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley and maybe Hanley, plus some growth from Devers and Benintendi, not to mention the addition of J.D. Martinez, they should be a much better position to compete in October.