Head To Head: Rotations
| Position | Red Sox | Proj. WAR | My WAR | Pos. Rank | Position | Yankees | Proj. WAR | My WAR | Pos. Rank |
| SP | Chris Sale | 5.3 | 5.6 | 8 | SP | Luis Severino | 4.3 | 4.7 | 7 |
| SP | David Price | 3.4 | 3.2 | 8 | SP | Masahiro Tanaka | 3.2 | 4.1 | 7 |
| SP | Drew Pomeranz | 1.7 | 2.6 | 8 | SP | Sonny Gray | 2.9 | 3.3 | 7 |
| SP | Eduardo Rodriguez | 1.3 | 2.2 | 8 | SP | C.C. Sabathia | 1.4 | 1.5 | 7 |
| SP | Rick Porcello | 2.4 | 1.7 | 8 | SP | Jordan Montgomery | 1.7 | 2.1 | 7 |
| Totals | 14.1 | 15.3 | 13.5 | 15.7 |
The Fangraphs staff picks had the Yankees as a slightly better rotation (starting pitching was ranked as a unit), but Steamer likes the Red Sox by about a half a win. I agree with Fangraphs here. While Chris Sale will be the best starter on either team, the Yankees will have three starters better than David Price, even if Price is healthy. That said, the Sox win the battle of the aces handily.
Both staffs have plenty of question marks as well. Price missed most of last year with elbow trouble, but Tanaka has that small UCL tear looming in the background. When Tanaka is right, however, he’s still dominant. I’m not sure David Price has the stuff to be that guy anymore, but he can still be very effective, as 2016 showed. Point Yankees.
Drew Pomeranz and Sonny Gray are similar pitchers regarding value, but they get there very differently. Neither throws that many innings on the season. Pomeranz reached 173 and ⅔ last season (a career high), while Gray threw just 162 and ⅓. Pomeranz strikes more batters out but walks more as well, and typically doesn’t go as deep into games
In 2017, Pomeranz averaged just over 5 and ⅓ innings per game while Gray was right a 6 IP per outing. The value difference here is likely to be minimal but seems to lean slightly in favor of New York.
Eduardo Rodriguez vs. C.C. Sabathia is an interesting comparison. One is young and just establishing himself while coming off of a stabilizing knee surgery and the other is at the tail end of his career and may have no cartilage left in his plant knee. Sabathia, once a fireballer, relies on secondary stuff to fool hitters these days while Rodriguez is still capable of, and more than happy to burn one by the batter. I’d bet on youth here and notch one for the Red Sox.
And bringing up the rear are Rick Porcello and Jordan Montgomery. Porcello, Cy Young award aside, is a solid back of the rotation innings eater. Montgomery showed he could be much of the same. Again, probably little difference between the two, but if push comes to shove, I’ll take Montgomery.
Beyond the starting five each team does have some depth lurking in the minors or perhaps in the bullpen if lack of options forces the issue. For the Red Sox names like Brian Johnson, Steven Wright, and Hector Velazquez provide a high floor, low ceiling spot starters, and injury insurance.
In the Bronx, it’s Domingo German, Luis Cessa and Ben Heller with a slew of hard-throwing high ceiling prospects ascending the ladder quickly. If injuries push the teams this far, the Yankees have a decided advantage, but we’re talking a cataclysmic level of bad luck here.
Overall, the Yankees come out ahead here.