Head to Head: The Bullpens
Position | Red Sox | Proj. WAR | My WAR | Pos. Rank | Position | Yankees | Proj. WAR | My WAR | Pos. Rank |
CL | Craig Kimbrel | 1.5 | 2.3 | 8 | CL | Aroldis Chapman | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1 |
RP | Carson Smith | 0.5 | 1.6 | 8 | RP | Dellin Betances | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1 |
RP | Matt Barnes | 0.4 | 0.4 | 8 | RP | David Robertson | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1 |
RP | Joe Kelly | 0.6 | 0.4 | 8 | RP | Tommy Kahnle | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1 |
RP | Heath Hembree | 0.2 | 0.2 | 8 | RP | Chad Green | 0.7 | 2.1 | 1 |
RP | Austin Maddox | -0.1 | 0.1 | 8 | RP | Adam Warren | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1 |
RP | Tyler Thornburg | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8 | RP | Jonathan Holder | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1 |
Totals | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 9.7 |
Like the rotations, the bullpens were ranked as a unit. Craig Kimbrel is the best reliever on either team. But that’s it. That’s all I’ve got for Red Sox fans. Carson Smith is in discussion with the next four Yankees relievers, but the quality drops way off in the Boston pen after that leading to a massive disparity in expected WAR whether you take Steamer’s numbers or mine.
This is one are where the Yankees are way ahead.
Head to Head: The Benches
Position | Red Sox | Proj. WAR | My WAR | Position | Yankees | Proj. WAR | My WAR |
BN | Mitch Moreland | 0.9 | 1.2 | BN | Neil Walker | 1.5 | 2.1 |
BN | Brock Holt | 0.1 | 1.7 | BN | Jacoby Ellsbury | 0.4 | 0.6 |
BN | Eduardo Nunez | 1.0 | 1.8 | BN | Tyler Austin | 0.0 | 0.0 |
BN | Sandy Leon | 0.4 | 0.2 | BN | Austin Romine | 0.2 | 0.6 |
Totals | 2.4 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 3.3 |
What the Yankees gained in the battle of the bullpens, the Red Sox make up for here to some degree. Manager Alex Cora has higher quality bench options than Aaron Boone, and that should lead to Boston’s bench players getting more time on the field. As a counting stat, that means WAR totals for the Sox quartet should be higher.
Mitch Moreland will likely be more of a platoon partner than a backup at first base, and Eduardo Nunez will be the starter at second until Pedroia comes back sometime in late April. After that, Nunez will be the primary bat off the bench with Holt behind him, should he indeed be recovered from his vertigo issues.
The other factor here, which is not reflected in the table, is depth at the minor league level. The Red Sox will have Blake Swihart on the 25 man roster to start the year which gives the club about a month to decide between him and Holt. If Holt’s troubles return, Swihart will be his replacement, and he should provide similar value. Additionally, infielder Tzu-Wei Lin offers an excellent infield defense on the shuttle and first baseman Sam Travis was the team’s best hitter this spring and may have finally found his power stroke.
For the Yankees, it’s more high profile prospects in Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, and Clint Frazier when he recovers from his injury. For ceiling, the Yankees depth bats blow Boston’s away. But again, it would take a significant amount of bad injury luck for any of these players to see enough time on the field to tip the scales.
The Red Sox bench takes this one.