Red Sox new hitting coach
He was hitting the ball hard, but not at launch angles where that exit velocity could do the most damage. Enter Tim Hyers, new Red Sox hitting coach. Expect Mookie to start punishing the ball in the air more, and expect that to lead to more home runs, doubles and triples. I’m predicting a near-2016 season out of him. 2016 was likely his career best, but 2017 represented much more than just regression.
As for Judge, 2017 may well be a career year for him too, and you can expect regression in 2018. He’s still going to be an outstanding player, but pitchers appear to have found ways to attack him which neutralize his contact ability. He will likely have slumps as we saw in July and August. Perhaps not as long, but that hole in his swing is real, and it will rear its ugly head.
Betts, for his part, is an excellent contact hitter (5th lowest swinging strike rate in the majors last year) which means he’s less likely to go through those kinds of struggles. Expect him to look like Mike Trout-lite again, while The Judge regresses to merely being great.
Moving to center, Jackie Bradley Jr. is coming off his worst offensive season to date. He managed just a 90 wRC+ following two seasons in which he went 123 and 119 respectively. He had a knee bothering him all year, but like Bogaerts appears healthy again. Expect the bat to bounce back a bit.
Aaron Hicks broke out in a big way in 2017, amassing 3.3 fWAR in a little more than half a season’s at bats. He brings a significant amount of his value with the glove, however, and I don’t expect him to spend all season in the field. Giancarlo Stanton will eat into his playing time out there, which will limit his overall upside. Between that and a bit of regression, I have him finishing the year as being slightly less productive than JBJ.
Speaking of Stanton, his Steamer projection looks pretty close to me. He’ll see plenty of time at one of the corners allowing his athleticism to fuel his WAR a bit. He’s not blasting 60 HR again, but expect something in the 40-45 range and another run at the MVP.