Philadelphia Phillies vs. NL West wildcard hopefuls

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Nola heads the rotation that began with the Opening Day assignment in Atlanta. Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images. /

This spring, Phillies fans are expressing cautious optimism after experiencing multiple losing summers but also feeling the elation regarding the offseason acquisitions of general manager Matt Klentak.

First temperature reading:

Compared to the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies, the faithful haven’t seen enough to justify an all-in emotional commitment to these youngsters. And some have mixed feelings about this bridge campaign from 2017’s also-rans to 2019’s division contenders: the opening of a postseason window.

IN OTHER WORDS: “Everybody wants to play in the playoffs. You don’t know how good the good times were until you hit the bad times. But sometimes success is just around the corner.” – Trevor Linden

Even though Opening Day is in the books, predictions are prevalent, but 2018 has a more defined configuration in the National League. In fact, each division has a clear favorite, two wild-card possibilities, a .500-at-best team and a cellar dweller or a rebuilding franchise.

Of the one-game hopefuls, four clubs are one extended stint by a key player on the disabled list away from the odds being against them. A perfect example from last year is Madison Bumgarner because the San Francisco Giants then finished last in the Senior Circuit.

If you want to know an organization’s plans, their moves indicate their expectations for the upcoming 162 and their direction: up, down or maintaining their current status. And it also reveals their present financial circumstances: increasing, trying to break even or not exceeding the competitive balance threshold.

Lastly, the trading deadline usually plays a role in the outcome for contending teams because replacing a star having a disappointing season or filling a hole can make a huge difference. Ask about the 2009 Phils with Cliff Lee.

Considering a wild-card berth, this article covers three franchises in the western division to the Phillies for a one-game opportunity after September’s end. Because you can overestimate the competition and doubt your own chances, focusing on those organizations produces clarity.

In the NL West, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the easy pick for the oddsmakers, while the San Diego Padres are near the bottom of the division. But their competitors have a shot at the wild card: the Colorado Rockies, the Arizona Diamondbacks, and San Francisco.

Regarding the NL Central, the Chicago Cubs are the favorite, while the restructuring Cincinnati Reds will try to surpass the weakened Pittsburgh Pirates, who will probably have a .500 finish. As for the wild card, the St. Louis Cardinals and the Milwaukee Brewers will battle each other.

While the Washington Nationals can fend off their NL East rivals, the Miami Marlins are rebuilding, and the Atlanta Braves are a .500 hopeful. But a contentious rivalry is forming between Philadelphia and the New York Mets for the Wild Card Game: The first matchup of 19 will be on April 2 in New York.

Bumgarner will miss most of the first half, and his absence is dimming hopes for Giants fans. Photo by Alex Trautwig/MLB Photos via Getty Images. /

Giant steps:

In ’17, San Francisco went 64-98 after the loss of Bumgarner, and they were 14th in NL run scoring. No surprise there!

Over the winter, they acquired Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen, while they anticipated decent pitching from their top three starters: especially Bumgarner. The Giants were eighth in pitching: overall, starting and relieving. And they expected to improve on 2017’s stats.

According to Fangraphs, San Francisco will finish in second place in the division. And their odds are 24.9 percent for the playoffs and 19.3 percent for the wild card.

Unfortunately, losing their ace for 6-8 weeks and another month to build up arm strength during a minor league rehab means he’ll miss almost half of ’18. And Jeff “Shark” Samardzija, their three-slot hurler, won’t return until May.

Although their chances have dropped, they are close to being under the luxury tax threshold of $197 million for this campaign. In other words, they won’t be taking on salary at the trading deadline even if they are in wild-card contention.

On a Giants site, while some posted their club will only have a small possibility for serious October baseball, others pointed out the flawed logic of those with limited optimism. But they are right that teams without depth can’t afford the loss of a significant piece.

APPLIES HERE: “Time is a figure eight, at its center the city of Deja Vu.” – Robert Breault

Gray is the ace of the Rockies’ staff. Photo by John Leyba/The Denver Post via Getty Images. /

Rockpile:

Hitting their way into the conversation, the ’17 Rockies had an 82-75 mark: 52-39 before the All-Star break but 30-36 in the second half. And even though they were first in NL runs scored with 824, they were ninth in NL pitching: a 4.51 ERA overall, a 4.59 ERA for starters and a 4.40 ERA for the bullpen.

During the offseason, Colorado changed catchers, dropped their ninth-inning fireman, and signed a setup man and closer Wade Davis. The significant improvement here is to the back end of the pen.

According to Fangraphs, the Rockies have 18.1 percent odds for the playoffs and a 14.3 percent shot at the wild card. Yes, they lost a rotation arm to the Cubs, but the Denver squad has a handful of hurlers with similar numbers.

The Rox have a deadly offense, an improved relief corps, and two young starters at the front of their rotation. They’ll continue to develop young pitching for their five-man staff and inch their way into the 90-win column.

WORDS OF WISDOM: “A goal without a plan is just a wish.” – Larry Elder

It also means that any mid-July deals would be to replace an injured or ineffective player. But don’t expect them to trade for a rotation piece: a possible shortcoming.

As for Rockies fans, many on their site posted their acceptance for a repeat of last summer. In other words, they’re anticipating an opportunity for a second wild card and 84 to 89 victories. By comparison, national writers figured the acquisition of Jake Arrieta could put the Phillies in that vicinity.

Greinke’s loss of velocity is a major concern for the D-backs. Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images. /

Snake pit:

In 2017, the Diamondbacks finished at 93-69: 53-36 for the first half and 40-33 after the mid-season break. They were fourth in NL runs scored with 812 and second in NL pitching: a 3.66 ERA overall, a 3.61 ERA for starters and a 3.78 ERA for relievers.

Due to free agency and a trade over the winter, the D-backs have replaced their receiver and an outfielder. However, their offense is less potent than their stretch run with J.D. Martinez, but similar overall numbers are in the offing.

According to Fangraphs, Arizona has a 25.6 percent chance for postseason play and a 19.6 percent shot at the wild card. And if they’re healthy, these forecasts are reasonable.

But Zack Greinke is experiencing a drop in velocity from 91-93 mph on his four-seam fastball to 88-90 mph. And though he has a full arsenal, he’ll be less effective with that 3-mph drop. That stated, he’s 34, and Doc Halladay was 34 when he lost something off his heater.

With Greinke’s contract, adding another top-tier arm isn’t an option. So, if the right-hander struggles, their other starters can only do so much. But not enough.

Regarding comments on a D-backs site, the results are still there for Greinke. But Tim Lincecum lived off his fastball reputation for half a season before the hitters caught up to him. The Diamondbacks fan base doesn’t want to explore life without their ace.

FOOD FOR THOUGHT: “It’s human nature to start taking things for granted again when danger isn’t banging loudly on the door.” – David Hackworth

Arrieta works on March 27 against the Pirates and will start versus the Marlins on April 8 at the Bank. Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. /

Red and white:

Despite a 66-96 record for ’17, the Phillies went 37-36 in their final 73 contests after promoting Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams, and Jorge Alfaro. And they were 12th in the NL with 690 runs scored but sixth in the second half with 358. Pitching-wise, the Phils were 10th overall (4.55 ERA) and starters (4.80 ERA) but seventh in the NL for their bullpen with a 4.18 ERA.

Klentak had a busy offseason: He inked Carlos Santana, Tommy Hunter, Pat Neshek and Arrieta, who will form a one-two punch with Aaron Nola. In other words, the GM has strengthened the offensive, back of the pen and the starting staff.

According to Fangraphs, the Phillies are long shots for serious October baseball at 8.1 percent and 5.7 percent for the wild card. But the front office didn’t sign Arrieta until March 12.

On many Phillies sites, the locals are still processing the changes, and some are anticipating 84-85 wins, while others are hoping for .500 ball. The reasoning for a questionable improvement from a 66-96 club doesn’t include a full 162 of Hoskins, not two months. Yes, if Hoskins hits 18 homers again, the doubters could be right.

The most significant difference between the red pinstripes and these NL West hopefuls will factor in near July’s end. In other words, management will take on a salary for a difference-maker, but adding another starter would put them in the thick of wild-card contention for an NLDS spot.

WITH KAPLER IN MIND: “Strategic planning is not strategic thinking. Indeed, strategic planning often spoils strategic thinking, causing managers to confuse real vision with the manipulation of numbers.” – Henry Mintzberg

Regarding run production, the Phillies have a pair of sluggers, a catching tandem batting from both sides of the plate and competition for playing time in the outfield and infield. Translation: three regulars to Hoskins’ left and four starters to Santana’s right are a deliberate construction. Hit or sit!

Being a switch-hitter, Santana will probably bat second most of the time. Photo by Mike McGinnis/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

* On the disabled list ** Extended absence

Phillies SP addition:

Arrieta, 32: 30 Gms., 168 1/3 Inn., 14-10, a 3.53 ERA, a 4.16 FIP, a 4.11 xFIP, a 4.15 SIERA, a 2.4 fWAR and a 1.22 WHIP.

Phillies RP additions:

*Hunter, 31.5: 61 Gms., 58 2/3 Inn., 25 Holds, a 2.61 ERA, a 3.07 FIP, a 3.29 xFIP, a 3.07 SIERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 0.97 WHIP.
Neshek, 37.5: 71 Gms., 62 1/3 Inn., 23 Holds, a 1.59 ERA, a 1.86 FIP, a 3.26 xFIP, a 2.70 SIERA, a 2.5 fWAR and a 0.87 WHIP.

Phillies 1B addition:

Santana, almost 32: 154 Gms., 667 PA, a .259 Avg., a .363 OBP, a .455 SLG, a .196 ISO, a .274 BABIP, 23 HR, 79 RBI, an .818 OPS and a 3.0 fWAR.

Giants SP break even:

**Bumgarner, 28.5: 17 Gms., 111 Inn., 4-9, a 3.32 ERA, a 3.95 FIP, a 4.07 xFIP, a 3.94 SIERA, a 1.7 fWAR and a 1.09 WHIP.

Giants pos. additions:

3B Longoria, 32.5: 156 Gms., 677 PA, a .261 Avg., a .313 OBP, a .424 SLG, a .163 ISO, a .282 BABIP, 20 HR, 86 RBI, a .737 OPS and a 2.5 fWAR.
OF McCutchen, 31.5: 156 Gms., 650 PA, a .279 Avg., a .363 OBP, a .486 SLG, a .207 ISO, a .305 BABIP, 28 HR, 88 RBI, an .849 OPS and a 3.7 fWAR.

Rockies SP subtraction:

Chatwood, 28: 33 Gms., 25 Starts, 147 2/3 Inn., 8-15, a 4.69 ERA, a 4.94 FIP, a 4.27 xFIP, a 4.78 SIERA, a 1.1 fWAR and a 1.44 WHIP.

Rockies RP additions:

Davis, 32.5: 59 Gms., 58 2/3 Inn., 32 Saves, 1 BS, a 2.30 ERA, a 3.38 FIP, a 3.57 xFIP, a 3.29 SIERA, a 1.1 fWAR and a 1.14 WHIP.
Shaw, 30.5: 79 Gms., 76 2/3 Inn., 3 Saves, 26 Holds, a 3.52 ERA, a 2.96 FIP, a 3.20 xFIP, a 3.30 SIERA, a 1.6 fWAR and a 1.21 WHIP.

Rockies RP subtractions:

Holland, 32: 61 Gms., 57 1/3 Inn., 41 Saves, 4 BS, 1 Hold, a 3.61 ERA, a 3.72 FIP, a 4.05 xFIP, a 3.53 SIERA, a 1.1 fWAR and a 1.15 WHIP.

Phillies vs. NL West wild-card hopefuls